Road to the Draft – Part 12
April 6, 2021
By Noonefromtampa
Welcome to the latest edition of The Hog Sty’s mock draft tracker column.
The only notable move in the past week was the signing of journeyman wide receiver and kick returner DeAndre Carter. This was a depth/competition signing directly aimed at Steven Sims Jr. Between Sims’ foot injury and lackluster performance the last half of the season, the coaching staff are looking to upgrade the talent for his snaps. The most interesting rumor going around on social media is that Brandon Scherff turned down a significant long-term offer and that there is a possibility he could be moved on draft day.
There were no major moves made that impacted the overall draft last week. A lot of the new mocks now have as many as five quarterbacks going in the first ten picks.
The Mocks
The number of mock drafts published went up this week from 198 to 220. The position distribution is now:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| OT | 59 | 26.82% | 29.29% | -2.47% |
| QB | 46 | 20.91% | 23.74% | -2.83% |
| LB | 45 | 20.45% | 15.15% | 5.30% |
| WR | 31 | 14.09% | 15.66% | -1.57% |
| IOL | 24 | 10.91% | 8.59% | 2.32% |
| CB | 4 | 1.82% | 3.03% | -1.21% |
| S | 3 | 1.36% | 2.02% | -0.66% |
| TE | 3 | 1.36% | 1.52% | -0.15% |
| Edge | 3 | 1.36% | 0.51% | 0.86% |
| DT | 2 | 0.91% | 0.51% | 0.40% |
| Grand Total | 220 | 100% |
With WFT last week’s move, as well as the previous the signings in free agency at quarterback and wide receiver, the biggest selection impact was at linebacker, which went up 5.3% from last week. Interior offensive line was 2.3%, while quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback were all down pointedly. I do not see WFT going with defensive line in the first round, but those mock picks doubled from last week from 1% to 2.2%. I would expect WFT to take a development type defensive line player in the later rounds since the Ron Rivera likes to build from the lines out.
The players mock picked to WFT at nineteen in descending frequency are:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech | 37 | 16.82% |
| Mac Jones | QB | Alabama | 30 | 13.64% |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame | 26 | 11.82% |
| Samuel Cosmi | OT | Texas | 13 | 5.91% |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Minnesota | 13 | 5.91% |
| Teven Jenkins | IOL | Oklahoma State | 12 | 5.45% |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL | USC | 12 | 5.45% |
| Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State | 8 | 3.64% |
| Zaven Collins | LB | Tulsa | 8 | 3.64% |
| Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State | 8 | 3.64% |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Florida | 7 | 3.18% |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama | 4 | 1.82% |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida | 3 | 1.36% |
| Justin Fields | QB | Ohio St | 3 | 1.36% |
| Trevon Moehrig-Woodard | S | TCU | 3 | 1.36% |
| Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama | 2 | 0.91% |
| Liam Eichenberg | OT | Notre Dame | 2 | 0.91% |
| Spencer Brown | OT | Northern Iowa | 2 | 0.91% |
| Alex Leatherwood | OT | Alabama | 2 | 0.91% |
| Devonta Smith | WR | Alabama | 2 | 0.91% |
| Elijah Moore | WR | Mississippi | 2 | 0.91% |
| Rondale Moore | WR | Purdue | 2 | 0.91% |
| Dillon Radunz | OT | North Dakota State | 2 | 0.91% |
| Kyle Trask | QB | Florida | 2 | 0.91% |
| Jaelan Phillips | Edge | Miami | 2 | 0.91% |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina | 2 | 0.91% |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR | LSU | 1 | 0.45% |
| Zack Wilson | QB | BYU | 1 | 0.45% |
| Azeez Ojulari | Edge | Georgia | 1 | 0.45% |
| Eric Stokes | CB | Georgia | 1 | 0.45% |
| Jalen Mayfield | OT | Michigan | 1 | 0.45% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Player Trade | 1 | 0.45% |
| Jamin Davis | LB | Kentucky | 1 | 0.45% |
| Nick Bolton | LB | Missouri | 1 | 0.45% |
| Baron Browning | LB | Ohio St | 1 | 0.45% |
| Jevon Holland | S | Oregon | 1 | 0.45% |
| Kellon Mond | QB | Texas A&M | 1 | 0.45% |
While Christian Darrisaw and Mac Jones still lead the list of most likely picks for Washington, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was the biggest mover this week going up almost 4%. This is not unexpected since he is the leading linebacker candidate in the draft most likely to be available at pick 19. Micah Parsons and Zaven Collins were both up slightly.
The breakdown of the percentage picked within the position group for the top five positions is as follows:
- Quarterback – Mac Jones (66% of QB picks), Trey Lance (17.4%), Justine Fields (6.5%), Kyle Trask (4.4%)
- Offensive tackle – Christian Darrisaw (62.7% of OT picks), Samuel Cosmi (22%), Alex Leatherwood (3.4%), Spenser Brown (3.4%), Dillon Radnuz (3.4%), Liam Eichenberg (3.4%)
- Wide receiver – Rashod Bateman (42% of WR picks), Kadarius Toney (22.6%), Jaylen Waddle (12.9%), Rondale Moore (6.5%), Devonta Smith (6.5%), Elijah Moore (6.5%)
- Linebacker – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (57.8%), Micah Parsons (17.8%), Zaven Collins (17.8%), Nick Bolton (2.2%), Baron Browning (2.2%), Jamin Davis (2.2%)
- Interior Offensive Line – Alijah Vera-Tucker (50%), Teven Jenkins (50%)
Eighteen mockers have WFT trading the #19 pick with the most popular spots being up to #14-Minnesota for a quarterback either Mac Jones or Trey Lance. The second most popular option is #7-Detroit. Two mocks now have us trading back for additional day 2 picks with either Indianapolis or Green Bay.
My opinion after free agency is that the most likely first round options are linebacker and offensive line, but with all the wheeling and dealing that could happen on draft day, it’s anybody’s guess at this point in time.
If you have any draft questions, post them in the comments or hit me up on Twitter @noonefromtampa.
Source: nflmockdraftdatabase.com