2021-22 NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview

Posted on by

January 14, 2022

by Steve Thomas

I’ve changed our playoff preview column this year; namely, I’ve dispensed with the pages and pages of hardcore statistical analysis of each aspect of all of the playoff teams’ offenses and defenses.  I did this primarily because (1) Washington isn’t in the playoffs and (2) it’s a ton of work – the most data-intensive regular column that I do – and I didn’t have that much time this year.  If you would like to see me bring it back for next year, let me know.

Therefore, I’m going to cover the Wildcard weekend schedule and give a preview of each game.  Let’s jump right in.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Tennessee Titans (12 – 5; 1st, AFC South; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12 – 5; 1st, AFC West)
  3. Buffalo Bills (11 – 6; 1st, AFC East)
  4. Cincinnati Bengals (10 – 7; 1st, AFC North)
  5. Las Vegas Raiders (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC West)
  6. New England Patriots (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC East)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9 – 7 – 1; 2nd, AFC North)

NFC

  1. Green Bay Packers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC South)
  3. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 1st, NFC East)
  4. Los Angeles Rams (12 – 5; 1st, NFC West)
  5. Arizona Cardinals (11 – 6; 2nd, NFC West)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (10 – 7; 3rd, NFC West)
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC East)

2021 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday, Jan. 15

4:35 p.m. ET – Raiders (#5) at Bengals (#4) (NBC, Peacock)

8:15 p.m. ET – Patriots (#6) at Bills (#3) (CBS, Paramont+)

Sunday, Jan. 16

1:00 p.m. ET – Eagles (#7) at Buccaneers (#2) (Fox, Fox Deportes)

4:30 p.m. ET – 49ers (#6) at Cowboys (#3) (CBS, Paramount +, NICK, Amazon Prime Video)

8:15 p.m. ET – Steelers (#7) at Chiefs (#2) (NBC, Paramount, Telemundo)

Monday, Jan. 17

8:15 p.m. ET – Cardinals (#5) at Rams (#4) (ESPN, ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)

 

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 22

4:30 p.m. ET – TBD vs TBD

8:15 p.m. ET – TBD vs TBD

Sunday, Jan. 23

3:00 p.m. ET – TBD vs TBD

6:30 p.m. ET – TBD vs TBD

 

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 30

3:05 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS)

6:40 p.m. ET – NFC (Fox)

 

Super Bowl

Sunday, Feb. 13

6:30 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (NBC)

Halftime Show – some terrible debacle nobody will care about after it ends, again Dr. Dre, Snoop Dog, Eminem, Mary J. Blige

 

Game Previews

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Early line: Bengals, -6.5

The Raiders are coming off of one of the best and most entertaining prime time games in NFL history, with a last-second field goal victory over the Chargers.  The Raiders have won 4 games in a row, including 2 against teams with winning records.  Over the course of the entire season, they were a middle of the pack team in terms of scoring output.  They are one of the more prolific passing teams in the NFL, with 429 attempts this season (ranked 5th) and 4,567 yards (ranked 6th), although they aren’t quite as efficient as some other teams, with middle-tier rankings in quarterback ratings and interceptions.  The Raiders have been a flat-out bad running team, averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt this season, although things improved against the Broncos in week 16 and last week against the Chargers, with Josh Jacobs gaining over 100 yards in both contests.  On defense, the Raiders have given up 439 points, which is ranked 26th, and are the worst team in the NFL in interceptions.

The Bengals scored 460 points (ranked 7th) and have been an outstanding passing team, ranked 2nd in the NFL in both quarterback rating and completion percentage.  They are a bottom-10 rushing team.  On defense, the Bengals have surrendered 376 points (ranked 17th) and are middle of the pack by most passing metrics, and gave up 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground.  The Bengals finished the season with a 3 – 1 record and beat a number of quality teams this season, including the Chiefs and the Steelers twice.

The Raiders and the Bengals faced off in Las Vegas in week 11, with Cincinnati winning 32 – 13.

Steve’s prediction: Bengals, big

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Early line: Bills, -4.5

Buffalo has a prolific offense, having scored 483 points, which is the third-most in the NFL this season.  They have quality numbers in both the passing and running games – they average 4.8 yards per carry (ranked 5th) and has scored 20 rushing touchdowns (ranked 8th).  The Bills aren’t nearly as efficient in the air, with a 63.4% completion percentage (ranked 23rd).  Josh Allen’s quarterback rating is just 92.2, which is ranked 16th.  Their key offensive players other than Allen are running back Devin Singletary (870 yards) and receiver Stefon Diggs (1,225 receiving yards).  Buffalo’s defense is extremely stingy, being #1 in the NFL in points allowed, total yards, opposing quarterback rating, and completion rating.  They were less successful in rush defense, giving up 4.2 yards per carry.  Buffalo finished the season on a roll, winning 4 in a row (including one game over the Patriots), each by a fairly healthy margin.

The Patriots aren’t too far behind the Bills in points scored, with 462 (ranked 6th).  Quarterback Mac Jones has been efficient, with a 67.6% completion percentage (8th in the league).  However, he’s thrown too many interceptions (13) to have a high quarterback rating (92.5; ranked 15th).  Their rushing game is middle of the road (4.3 yards per carry; ranked 20th).  Beyond Jones, their key offensive players are running back Damien Harris (929 yards) and receiver Jakobi Meyers (866 receiving yards).  The Patriots defense is right behind Buffalo is some respects, having surrendered just 303 points (2nd), and ranked 4th in total yards, 2nd in opposing completion percentage, interceptions, and quarterback rating.  However, the Patriots aren’t very good against the run, with opposing offenses averaging 4.5 yards per attempt.  This could be New England’s downfall.  They finished the season on a down note, losing 3 of their last 4.

The Patriots and Bills split their season series, with the Patriots winning in week 13 in Buffalo by a score of 14 – 10, and the Bills winning in New England by a score of 33 – 21.

Steve’s prediction: Bills in a close game

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Early line: Buccaneers, -9

The Buccaneers – i.e., the Tampa Bay Tom Bradys – scored 511 points, which is the second-highest amount in the league, and were second in total yards gained.  Behind Brady’s talent, they were #1 in the NFL in passing yards.  Brady was 7th in quarterback rating, 1st in passing yards and touchdowns.  They are less accomplished on the ground, averaging just 4.3 yards per carry, which was ranked 20th.  Tampa Bay finally got rid of their resident lunatic, Antonio Brown, but they are still an embarrassment of riches on offense, even setting Brady aside: running back Leonard Fournette (812 yards; 4.5 yards per carry), receiver Mike Evans (1035 yards), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (802 yards in just 12 games).  On defense, Tampa Bay gave up just 353 yards (ranked 5th), and were 13th in total yards, 7th in sacks, 8th in opposing quarterback rating, 3rd in rushing yards, and 17th in rushing yards per attempt.  They finished the season as strong as any team in the league, winning 7 of their last 8, with their only loss coming against the Saints.

The Eagles are substantially less successful on offense, having scored just 444 points, which is ranked 12th, and were 14th in total yards, and 25th in both passing yards and completion percentage.  However, they were the top rushing team in the NFL as measured by total rushing yards, and were 4th in rushing yards per attempt.  Jalen Hurts had an 87.2 quarterback rating this season (ranked 22nd), but is the Eagles’ leading rusher with 784 yards.  Other key offensive players include running back Miles Sanders (754 yards; 5.5 yards per attempt), receiver DeVonta Smith (916 yards), tight end Dallas Goedert (830 yards), and receiver Quez Watkins (647 yards).  On defense, the Eagles have surrendered 385 points (ranked 18th), and are 10th in total yards, 11th in passing yards, and 23rd in opposing quarterback rating.  However, they were the worst team in the NFL in opposing completion percentage.  They were much better in rushing defense, giving up just 4.0 yards per attempt.  The Eagles also had a strong finish to the season, winning 4 of their last 5, including 2 against the Redskins Washington.

Tampa Bay defeated the Eagles in week 6 in Philadelphia by a score of 28 – 22.

Steve’s prediction: Tampa Bay, big

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Early line: Cowboys, -3

Dallas has the most prolific offense in the league, having scored 530 points and gained 6919 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL.  They also averaged 6.0 yards per play, which is tied for 4th.  The Cowboys were 3rd in passing yards, completion percentage, and quarterback rating.  They averaged 4.5 yards per rushing attempt, which is ranked 10th.  Dallas is another team that is an embarrassment of riches on offense, with quarterback Dak Prescott posting a 104.2 quarterback rating (ranked 3rd), the dual-headed rushing attack of Ezekiel Elliott (1002 yards; 4.2 yards per attempt) and Tony Pollard (719 yards; 5.5 yards per attempt), receiver Amari Cooper (865 yards), tight end Dalton Schultz (808 yards), and receiver Michael Gallup (445 yards).  On defense, Dallas gave up 358 yards (ranked 7th), but were just 19th in total yards, 20th in passing yards, 14th in sacks, 16th in rushing yards, and 25th in rushing yards per attempt.  The difference maker for the Cowboys on defense all year has been turnovers: they led the NFL in interceptions, with 26.  Dallas won 5 of their last 6 games, including two victories over Washington.

San Francisco scored 427 points this season (ranked 13th), and were ranked 7th in total yards gained, 12th in passing yards, 11th in completion percentage, 7th in rushing yards, and 20th in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had a 68.3% completion percentage (ranked 6th) and a 98.7 quarterback rating (ranked 9th).  Elijah Mitchell led the team in rushing with 963 yards and 4.7 yards per attempt.  Tight end George Kittle led the team with 910 receiving yards.  Other weapons include receiver Brandon Aiyuk (826 yards).  On defense, the 49ers allowed 365 points (ranked 10th), and were ranked 3rd in total yards, 6th in passing yards, 30th in opposing completion percentage, and 7th in both rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt.  San Francisco won 4 of their last 5 games, including two overtime victories.

The Cowboys and the 49ers did not play each other this season.

Steve’s prediction: Cowboys in a blowout

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Early line: Chiefs, -12.5

The Chiefs have had their ups and downs this season, but scored 480 points (ranked 4th).  They were ranked 3rd in total yards, 4th in passing yards, 16th in rushing yards, and 10th in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 4839 yards (ranked 4th), had a season quarterback rating of 98.5 (ranked 10th), and a 66.3% completion percentage (ranked 17th).  Darrel Williams led the team in rushing with 558 yards (3.9 yards per attempt), but the big name here is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who missed 7 games due to injury but still gained 517 yards at an average of 4.3 yards per carry.  Receiver Tyrek Hill led the team with 1239 receiving yards, with tight end Travis Kelce just behind him with 1125 yards.  The Chiefs defense has struggled.  They gave up 364 yards (ranked 8th), and were ranked 27th in total yards and passing yards, 21st in rushing yards, and 31st in average yards per carry.  Kansas City has been on a big-time roll recent, winning 9 of their last 10 games, including over the Packers, Cowboys, and Bengals.

The Steelers scored just 343 points this season (ranked 21st).  They were ranked 23rd in total yards, 15th in passing yards, and 29th in both rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt.  The soon-to-be retired Ben Roethlisberger earned 3740 passing yards this season, ranked 15th, a quarterback rating of 86.8 (ranked 24th), and 64.5 % completion percentage (ranked 21st).  Running back Najee Harris was the team’s most productive offensive player, with 1200 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per attempt.  Receiver Chase Claypool led the team with 860 receiving yards.  On defense, Pittsburgh gave up 398 points (ranked 20th), and were 24th in total yards and 9th in passing yards.  However, they had the worst rushing defense in the league – they were last in both total rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt.  The Steelers were 4 – 4 in their last 8 games.

The Chiefs beat the Steelers in week 16 in Kansas City by a score of 36 – 10.

Steve’s prediction: Chiefs in a blowout.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Early line: Rams, -4.5

Arizona’s offense has scored 449 points, which is ranked 11th in the NFL, and were 8th in total yards, 10th in both rushing and passing yards, and 22nd in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Kylar Murray missed three games this season due to injury, but passed for 3787 yards (ranked 14th), 24 touchdowns (12th), 5 interceptions, had a 69.2% completion percentage (2nd), and had a 100.6 quarterback rating (8th).  Murray also gained 423 yards rushing, for 4.8 yards per attempt.  The Cardinals’ leading rusher was James Conner, who had 752 yards and 3.7 yards per attempt.  Arizona is loaded with other offensive weapons, including receivers Christian Kirk (982 yards), A.J. Green (848 yards), and DeAndre Hopkins (572 yards), and tight end Zach Ertz (574 yards).  On defense, Arizona surrendered 366 points (12th), and was ranked 11th in total yards, 7th in passing yards, 20th in rushing yards, and 28th in rushing yards per attempt.  The Cardinals struggled down the stretch, earning a 1 – 4 record.

The Rams scored 460 points, which was ranked 8th, and were 9th in total yards, 5th in passing yards, 25th in rushing yards, and 26th in rushing yards per attempt.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford passed for 4886 yards (3rd), 67.2% completion percentage (12th), and a quarterback rating of 102.9 (6th).  Sony Michel was the Rams’ leading rusher, with 845 yards and 4.1 yards per carry.  Receiver Cooper Kupp had 1947 yards, which led the NFL.  Receiver Van Jefferson had 802 yards, and tight end Tyler Higbee had 560 yards.  On defense, the Rams surrendered 372 yards, which was ranked 15th.  They were ranked 17th in total yards, 22nd in passing yards, 6th in rushing yards, and 7th in rushing yards per attempt.  The Rams went 5 – 2 after their bye week to finish off the regular season.

The Cardinals and Rams split their season series, with the Cardinals winning in Los Angeles in week 4 by a score of 37 – 20, and the Rams winning in Arizona in week 14 by a score of 30 – 23.

Steve’s prediction: Rams in a close game.  This will be the most entertaining game of the weekend.