Jameis Winston is an Option for Washington

Posted on by

February 16, 2022

by David Earl

Jameis Winston‘s 2021 Season

Throughout his career, Jameis Winston has been a true gunslinger of a quarterback, with a big arm and a high interception rate. In 2019 that mentality was on full display throwing 33 TD’s to 30 interceptions while completing a below league average (64%) 60% of his passes. Here’s a comparison of Winston’s 2019 vs his 2021 season:

2019

  • Total QBR: Ranked 16th; 55.7
  • 61% completion percentage
  • 7.1 yards per attempt
  • 33 TDs
  • 33 interceptions

2021 (prior to injury in 6 starts)

  • Total QBR: Ranked 4th; 64.4
  • 59% completion percentage
  • 8.2 yards per attempt
  • 14 TDs
  • 3 interceptions

When it comes to accuracy, he’s inconsistent,but that’s typical for that gunslinger mentality. As a matter of perspective, in Winston’s first six years his completion percentage was a near mirror image to Brett Favre‘s first six years as a starter, and Favre’s career turned out pretty well. It’s just what you get with quarterbacks like Winston and Favre.  However, there are some areas of improvement that I want to focus on. After his tumultuous 2019 season marking him the first starting quarterback to go 30 for 30 in touchdowns versus interceptions, thus ending his career end in Tampa Bay, his time behind Drew Brees in New Orleans appeared to have been a benefit.  His interception percentage went from 4.8% in 2019 to being one of the league’s best at 1.9% this past season.  His touchdown to interception ratio this past year was 4:1. Putting this into perspective, Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford, who Ron Rivera targeted the last offseason, had an interception percentage of 2.8 while amassing a 2.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Winston’s actual yards per attempt were identical to Stafford’s (8.2) while not having talented wide receivers like Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. to pass to. With that said, how do Winston’s 2021 numbers stack up against Taylor Heinicke?

Taylor Heinicke‘s 2021 season:

  • Total QBR: Ranked 22nd; 39.9
  • 65% ompletion percentage
  • 6.4 yards per attempt
  • 20 TDs
  • 15 interceptions

Completion percentage is important, and in that regard Heinicke showed far better than Winston; however, it’s important to understand Heinicke checked the ball down often in 2021. In fact, using next gen stats, Heinicke averaged 7.5 air yards, which was 1.5 yards less per attempt on intended air yards than Winston’s 9.0 average.  Stafford averaged 8.5 intended air yards. Thus, it is clear that Winston tries to push the ball further downfield than does Heinicke. Heinicke’s ratio of touchdown to interception ratio of 1.3:1  pales in comparison to the 4:1 season Winston was having. Plus, the growth Winston took from the 2019 season compared to the 2021 season is intriguing enough to warrant serious consideration this offseason.

Winston Bridge to the Future

If – or rather, when – the plan A of a trade for Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers fails, Winston could be a more than reasonable fallback plan and a better option than trading valuable assets for a quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo. Winston could allow the team multiple scenarios such as:

  1. Standing pat at 11 (or move up a few spots) to land the quarterback in the draft you are in love with. Allow him to sit behind Winston for a year or two and be groomed for the future.
  2. Standing pat at 11 and drafting an impact player of need like LB Nakobe Dean from Georgia or WR Garrett Wilson from Ohio State.
  3. Trade back from 11 take the best player available and position the team for a developmental quarterback like Nevada’s Carson Strong or Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe.

Since Ron Rivera looks to get aggressive this offseason at the quarterback position, Winston could very well provide this team an option that’s more than just adequate if a Russell Wilson-type move is not an option. He would provide an upgrade over what’s currently in place, especially because of his arm strength, and could either be the future or a bridge to a quarterback from this coming draft or the 2023 draft. He certainly gives Terry McLaurin a passer who won’t continuously underthrow him when he gains initial separation off the line, as does Heinicke, and will utilize his speed accordingly. Heinicke was a great story but he won’t move this team forward, especially with his continuous check-downs and his all too often poor mechanics. This is an important year for Ron, and the inconsistencies in Winston’s game are far less, and not nearly as detrimental, as those of Heinicke going into the 2022 season. While Winston may not be the answer, but he would certainly come at a more manageable price while Ron and this front office continue to fill the many holes on this team going forward to include a future franchise quarterback.

Sean Payton’s Affect on Winston

I’ve had conversations with some people who source Saints beat writers to state that the offense had to be scaled down for Jameis Winston, but those stories haven’t been anything that I can legitimize. I mention this because the column, Did Sean Payton Break Jameis Winston by fixing Jameis Winston, discusses the improvements I mentioned earlier. While scaling the offense down may have its merit, but aPayton’s early goal to simplify the scheme wasn’t because Winston was incapable of running his offense. Rather, it was to minimize Winston’s thought process in-game. Payton apparently wanted to keep Winston’s focus more on limiting mistakes while executing a game plan that was not complex early in the season. This allowed Payton to gradually integrate his playbook and verbiage more as the season went on while he grew into more of a polished passer. At first glance from the outside, it appeared Payton was getting through to Winston. What seemed to be at a detriment to his game could have eventually flourished into something more special in time. I didn’t break down each game and snap of his season prior to the injury but the fact remains Winston showed better patience in the pocket while becoming more careful with the ball. While the truth of Sean scaling the offense is uncertain, the overall effect Sean and to a lesser extent Drew Brees had on Jameis Winston could very well carry over here in Washington on a prove-it deal. Scott Turner can surely cater the offense to Winston’s skill set while ensuring the scheme itself doesn’t overwhelm him early. Even in a scaled back offense, Winston would give this team something it sorely lacked in the 2021 season.  Plus, not having to move valuable assets would still positions Ron to move on the quarterback of the future. The best part, though, is that Winston offers enough talent in return that Ron could roll the dice and pass on drafting a quarterback this year, instead choosing to build and fill the holes on the roster.  The team could then make that a move for quarterback in the 2023 draft if Winston doesn’t shoe him enough. Winston is an option; maybe not the sexiest option but, with his play last year and the Saints 5-2 under him, he’s one that greatly improves the quarterback room on day one.