Did Washington upgrade last season by cutting Dustin Hopkins?

February 22, 2022

by Steve Thomas

Washington cut its long-time kicker Dustin Hopkins after week 6 last season.  He’d been with the team since week 2 of the 2015 season.  Hopkins was immediately picked up by the Los Angeles Chargers after his release, so he didn’t even miss a week’s work.  Washington ended up going through a slew of kickers, including Chris Blewitt, Joey Slye, Brian Johnson (the kicker, not the AC/DC lead vocalist), and then Joey Slye again.  The question I pose here is this: should Washington have cut Dustin Hopkins?  The only real competition is Slye, as Blewitt blew it and was cut, and Johnson only had 2 field goal attempts in 3 games before Slye returned.

A couple of things need to be said before we start.  First, Washington currently does not have a kicker on the roster.  Blewitt was cut, and the contracts of Slye and Johnson were only for one season each.  Second, Hopkins’ contract with Washington expired at the end of the 2021 anyway, so the team would actually be in the same position in which they current sit even if they hadn’t cut Hopkins.  Therefore, this is more of an interesting question than it is a critical issue for the team.

Finally, if you’ve been paying attention to The Hog Sty, you know that I was a fan of Hopkins’ production, but I’m going into this with a totally open mind; in fact, I don’t know the results of the research as I write this introduction.  We’ll see how it turns out.

With that said, let’s get started.

Dustin Hopkins

The following are Hopkins’ career field goal stats, in 104 games between 2015 and 2021:

Total	20 – 29 yards	30 – 39 yards	40 – 49 yards	50+ yards
181 for 214; 84.6%	51 for 52; 98%	51 for 55; 92.7%	62 for 75; 82.7%	15 for 30; 50%

The following are Hopkins’ 2021 field goal stats in 17 games, including his time with both Washington and the Chargers, as well as his 2018, 2019, and 2020 seasons:

Year	Total	20 – 29 yards	30 – 39 yards	40 – 49 yards	50+ yards
2021	30 for 34; 88.2%	8 for 8; 100%	6 for 6; 100%	13 for 14; 100%	2 for 5; 40%
2020	27 for 34; 79.4%	5 for 5; 100%	7 for 8; 87.5%	13 for 17; 76.5%	2 for 4; 50%
2019	25 for 30; 83.3%	7 for 8; 87.5%	8 for 9; 88.9%	8 for 10; 80%	2 for 3; 66.7%
2018	26 for 29; 89.7%	5 for 5; 100%	7 for 7; 100%	10 for 12; 83.3%	4 for 5; 80%

Hopkins’ 2018 season was the overall best year of his career.  When he was cut after week 6, Hopkins had posted the following 2021 stats for Washington:

Total	20 – 29 yards	30 – 39 yards	40 – 49 yards	50+ yards
12 for 14; 85.7%	3 for 3; 100%	2 for 2; 100%	6 for 7; 85.7%	1 for 2; 50%

As you can see, overall, his 2021 season was pretty good by his standards – 88.2%, which is above his career average.  Even his Washington numbers through week 6 weren’t bad – most teams would take 85.7%.  Hopkins’ Achilles’ heel has always been kicks above 50 yards, and he was just 2 for 5 at that distance in 2021.  It is noteworthy that Hopkins had been trending slightly down for the past two years prior to 2021, with an 83.3% in 2019 and 79.4% in 2020.  When I say “slightly”, it was very slight, as the numbers equate to essentially no more than 1 made kick per year less than his career average.

In addition, Hopkins has made 209 of 222 extra point attempts in his career, which is 94.1%.  In 2021, he made 40 of 44, which is 90.9%, including 10 of 12 for Washington, which is 83.3%.

Joey Slye

Slye has played in 44 games between 2018 and 2021 for the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Washington.  The following are his career field goal stats:

Total	20 – 29 yards	30 – 39 yards	40 – 49 yards	50+ yards
77 for 93; 82.8%	24 for 26; 92.3%	20 for 20; 100%	20 for 26; 76.9%	13 for 21; 61.9%

The following are Slye’s 2021 stats in 12 games with the Texans, 49ers, and Washington, and his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Panthers:

Year	Total	20 – 29 yards	30 – 39 yards	40 – 49 yards	50+ yards
2021	23 for 25; 92%	9 for 9; 100%	5 for 5; 100%	5 for 7; 71.4%	4 for 4; 100%
2020	29 for 36; 80.6%	11 for 12; 91.7%	10 for 10; 100%	7 for 8; 87.5%	1 for 6; 16.7%
2019	25 for 32; 78.1%	4 for 5; 80%	5 for 5; 100%	8 for 11; 72.7%	8 for 11; 72.7%

The following are Slye’s 2021 stats in his 6 games for Washington:

Total	20 – 29 yards	30 – 39 yards	40 – 49 yards	50+ yards
12 for 12; 100%	6 for 6; 100%	3 for 3; 100%	2 for 2; 100%	1 for 1; 100%

You’ll see that on an overall basis, Slye improved each year.

In addition, Slye made 82 of 93 extra point attempts in his career, which is 88.2%.  In 2021, he made 18 of 22, which is 81.8%, including 9 of 10 for Washington, which is 90%.

Comparison

Slye had a slightly better 2021 than did Hopkins, overall: 92% to 88.2%, and made all 12 of his kicks in Washington.  Hopkins missed 2 of 14 in Washington, including 1 of 2 over 50, whereas Slye only had 1 attempt over 50.  However, in looking at their respective seasons as a whole (1) this is a difference of just 1 kick, and (2) Slye had 9 fewer attempts than did Hopkins.  So, victory to Slye, but it’s by a small margin.  From a big picture standpoint, Slye is a younger player (25 years old versus 31 for Hopkins), and he’s been trending up, whereas Hopkins had been trending down for two seasons until his 2021, which was a good season for him and one which finished above his career average.  Washington head coach Ron Rivera always seemed frustrated with Hopkins, whereas he knew Sly from the 2019 season in Carolina.  Did Hopkins deserve to get cut, from a statistical perspective? Probably not. Did Washington get noticeably better by cutting Hopkins in favor of Slye?  A little bit, but certainly not by any great extent.  Hopkins’ cap hit was only $1.2M and Washington had plenty of cap space, so this wasn’t a money issue.  I suspect that Rivera inaccurately assumed that Hopkins was done and wouldn’t be the same again, which turned out not to be true.  Or, perhaps Rivera simply got tired of Dustin Hopkins and brought in his own guy, which is fine.  Either way, the team would be in the same position it’s in now, which is searching for the kicker of the future.