How good is Antonio Gibson and is he the future for Washington?

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March 8, 2022

by Steve Thomas

Washington drafted Antonio Gibson (6’2” / 220) in the third round of the 2020 draft out of the University of Memphis, where Gibson was primarily a wide receiver.  In his first two seasons, Gibson played in 30 games, with 24 starts, and produced the following:

  • 428 carries, 1832 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 18 touchdowns, 105 first downs, 7 fumbles
  • 78 receptions in 98 targets, 541 yards, 6.9 yards/reception, 3 touchdowns

The following are Gibson’s stats broken down by season:

2020

  • 14 games played, 10 starts
  • 170 carries, 795 yards, 4.7 yards/carry, 11 touchdowns, 40 first downs, 1 fumble, average of 12 carries per game
  • 36 receptions in 44 targets, 247 yards, 6.9 yards/reception, 0 touchdowns, average of 3.1 targets per game

2021

  • 16 games played, 14 starts
  • 258 carries, 1037 yards, 4.0 yards/carry, 7 touchdowns, 65 first downs, 6 fumbles, average of 16 carries per game
  • 42 receptions in 52 targets, 294 yards, 7.0 yards/reception, 3 touchdowns, average of 23.3 targets/game

At first glance, it’s apparent that Gibson significantly fell off during his 2021 season – in fact, he was averaging well below 4.0 yards per carry until his last two games of the season, week 16 against Dallas when he went 6 for 29 for 83 yards, for an average of 4.8 yards per carry, and in particular week 18 against the Giants, when he gained 146 yards on 21 carries for an average of 6.95 yards per carry.  Washington increased his usage in year 2, and honestly, the results weren’t great – remove the Giants game in week 18 and Gibson’s rushing output is 237 carries for 891 yards, which is 3.75 yards per carry.  Certainly, Washington had a much tougher schedule in 2021 than they did in 2020, and also had some serious coronavirus-related roster challenges, but the bottom line is that 2021 did not go particularly well for Gibson.  He only had 5 games in 2021 in which he had more than 10 carries and also averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry.

With that kind of inconsistent production, I’m not sure if Gibson is the Redskins’ the Commanders’ Washington’s franchise back of the future, part of a rushing tandem, or simply a guy who will be in DC for a couple of seasons, and then will be gone.  In order to see how he measures up to his peers, I’m going to compare him to a few other running backs from the 2020 draft class.

The following are the running backs from the 2020 draft who’ve produced significant stats, in rough order of success:

#1: Jonathan Taylor (5’10” / 226, Rd 2, Indianapolis)

  • 32 games / 30 starts
  • 564 carries, 2980 yards, 5.3 yards/carry, 29 TDs, 176 first downs
  • 76 receptions in 90 targets, 659 yards, 8.7 yards/reception, 3 TDs
  • 2020: 15 games/13 starts, 232 carries, 1169 yards, 5.0 yards/carry, 11 TDs, 69 first downs; 36 receptions in 39 targets, 299 yards, 8.3 yards/reception, 1 TD
  • 2021: 17 games/17 starts, 332 carries, 1811 yards, 5.5 yards/carry, 18 TDs, 107 first downs; 40 receptions in 51 targets, 360 yards, 9.0 yards/receptions, 2 TDs; 1st Team All-Pro; Pro Bowl

#2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5’8” / 209, Rd 1, Kansas City)

  • 23 games / 23 starts
  • 300 carries, 1320 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 8 touchdowns, 60 first downs
  • 55 receptions in 77 targets, 426 yards, 7.7 yards/reception, 3 touchdowns
  • 2020: 13 games / 13 starts, 181 carries, 803 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 4 TDs, 39 first downs; 36 receptions in 54 targets, 297 yards, 1 TD
  • 2021: 10 games / 10 starts, 119 carries, 517 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs, 21 first downs; 19 receptions in 23 targets, 129 yards, 2 TDs

#3: D’Andre Swift (5’9” / 211, Rd 2, Detroit)

  • 26 games / 8 starts
  • 265 carries, 1138 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 13 TDs, 59 first downs
  • 108 receptions in 135 targets, 809 yards, 7.5 yards/reception, 4 TDs
  • 2020: 13 games/4 starts, 114 carries, 521 yards, 4.6 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 31 first downs; 46 receptions in 57 targets, 357 yards, 7.8 yards/reception, 2 TDs
  • 2021: 13 games/4 starts, 151 carries, 617 yards, 4.1 yards/carry, 5 TDs, 28 first downs; 62 receptions in 78 targets, 452 yards, 7.3 yards/reception, 2 TDs

#5: AJ Dillon (6’0” / 247, Rd 2, Green Bay)

  • 28 games / 2 starts
  • 233 carries, 1045 yards, 4.5 yards/carry, 7 TDs, 61 first downs
  • 36 receptions in 39 targets, 334 yards, 9.3 yards/reception, 2 TDs
  • 2020: 11 games/0 starts, 46 carries, 242 yards, 5.3 yards/carry, 2 TDs, 11 first downs; 2 receptions in 2 targets, 21 yards
  • 2021: 17 games/2 starts, 187 carries, 803 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 5 TDs, 50 first downs; 34 receptions in 37 targets, 313 yards, 9.2 yards per reception, 2 TDs

#6: J.K. Dobbins (5’10” / 214, Rd 2, Baltimore)

  • 15 games / 1 start
  • 135 carries, 805 yards, 6.0 yards/carry, 9 TDs, 38 first downs
  • 18 receptions in 24 targets, 120 yards, 6.7 yards/reception
  • 2020: 15 games/1 start, 135 carries, 805 yards, 6.0 yards/carry, 9 TDs, 38 first downs; 18 receptions in 24 targets, 120 yards, 6.7 yards/reception
  • 2021: missed entire season due to torn ACL

#7: Zack Moss (5’9” / 205, Rd 3, Buffalo)

  • 26 games / 0 starts
  • 208 carries, 826 yards, 4.0 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 52 first downs
  • 37 receptions in 50 targets, 292 yards, 7.9 yards/reception, 2 TDs
  • 2020: 13 games/0 starts, 112 carries, 481 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs, 30 first downs; 14 receptions in 18 targets, 95 yards, 6.8 yards/reception, 1 TD
  • 2021: 13 games/0 starts, 96 carries, 345 yards, 3.6 yards/carry, 4 TDs, 22 first downs; 23 receptions in 32 targets, 197 yards, 8.6 yards per reception, 1 TD

#8: Cam Akers (5’11” / 212, Rd 2, Los Angeles Rams)

  • 14 games / 5 starts
  • 150 carries, 628 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 2 TDs, 26 first downs
  • 14 receptions in 17 targets, 133 yards, 9.5 yards/reception, 1 TD
  • 2020: 13 games/5 starts, 145 carries, 625 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 2 TDs, 26 first downs; 11 receptions in 14 targets, 123 yards, 11.2 yards/reception 1 TD
  • 2021: 1 game/0 starts, 5 carries, 3 yards; 3 receptions in 3 targets; missed first 16 games due to torn achilles

A few other running backs were drafted in 2020, but none have achieved noticeable NFL success yet: Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Rd 3, Tampa Bay), Darrynton Evans (Rd 3, Tennessee), Joshua Kelley (Rd 4, Chargers), La’Mical Perine (Rd 4, Jets), Anthony McFarland, Jr. (Rd 4, Pittsburgh), DeeJay Dallas (Rd 4, Seattle), Jason Huntley (Rd 5, Detroit), Eno Benjamin (Rd 7, Arizona), Raymond Calais (Rd 7, Tampa Bay), and Malcolm Perry (Rd 7, Miami).

So where does Gibson fall in this group?  In terms of raw production, probably behind the clear-cut #1, Jonathan Taylor, and the Chiefs’ Clyde Edwards-Helaire.  The principal difference between Gibson and the other two is that Gibson fell off significantly, whereas Taylor improved in year 2, and Edwards-Helaire maintained roughly the same level of production.  The other player to pay attention to is Dobbins with the Ravens – he had a fabulous rookie year, better than everyone, but his ACL tear (against Washington in the preseason) didn’t allow him to play in 2021.  D’Andre Swift amd AJ Dillon fell off in year 2 almost as much as Gibson, and even in those cases, Swift and Dillon were still was able to average 4.1 and 4.3 yards per attempt respectively in 2021.

Therefore, it’s fair to say that the 2020 version of Antonio Gibson was legitimately everything Washington could have reasonably expected out of a rookie running back; he wasn’t the NFL’s best, but he was very productive, particularly for a college receiver.  2021, however, wasn’t good.  Notice how the best backs from this class either improved or maintained their production in year 2.  Gibson wasn’t able to do that.  His third year, which is the upcoming 2022 season, is going to be critically important for his career and will determine whether Washington will be able to consider him a key part of their offense of the future, or whether they’ll once again be in the market for a running back.