Road to the Draft – Part 15
April 27, 2022
By Noonefromtampa
Noone’s Commanders Draft Preview
Hopefully you have been reading my mock drafts posts over the past weeks [yes Squinns, I’m looking at you]. The folks that have been posting mocks seem to have broken into three themes:
- The Commanders will take a WR at the 11th pick to help out Carson Wentz, probably Wilson Garrett or Drake London.
- Kyle Hamilton falls and Washington takes him to fill the Buffalo nickel role in the defense immediately and stabilize the back end of the defense long-term.
- The Commanders beef up the secondary by taking a cornerback either Derek Stingley Jr. or Ahmad Gardner.
Who Will Washington Draft?
Outside of the first round, it’s always hard to pick the exact players a team will pick in the later rounds. With Washington though, we probably have some idea of what position they will be drafting.
- Wide receiver – the team will be picking at least one in the draft, whether it’s in the first round or a later round. If Washington does pick Kyle Hamilton in round one, they may opt to take Christian Watson, Jalen Tolbert, David Bell or Alec Pierce with their next pick since this a deep draft for receivers.
- Interior defensive line – I think the team will use one of later round picks (4th thru 7th) on a defensive lineman to replenish this position group. Thomas Booker and Eric Johnson are two names to keep an eye on. Although with the late breaking rumors of Daron Payne not getting extended, DT may move up on the draft list.
- Defensive backs – every team usually takes one defensive back in the draft. The Commanders brought in Jaquan Brisker to interview but I’m not sure he will last until pick 47. There are several choices in later rounds that could be options for Washington.
- Offensive lineman – I expect the team to draft an interior offensive lineman in the draft to develop in the later rounds. Keith Ismael looked overmatched at times during the season, so competition will probably be brought in. Two names to watch for are Alec Lindstrom and Dohnovan West.
- Linebacker – fans want the team to draft a middle linebacker; however, I’m not sold on the idea that the coaching staff wants to draft another linebacker for the team. The team may elect to add a free agent after the draft.
- Quarterback – This is another position popular with the fans. The team may just opt to draft a third string type player in the 7th round or even an undrafted free agent. The staff is pretty happy with Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke as the backup.
- Running Back – the Commanders brought several high-profile running backs. I think the team is preparing for a situation where a Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker III is the best player on their board in the second round. While the position isn’t one of great need, they are looking for more offensive weapons and injuries, which really curtailed production at the position during the latter half of last season.
- Two positions I can see the Commanders not spending a draft pick on this year are tight end and edge rusher. John Bates was developing as the season progressed, and this will be Sammis Reyes second year in the system. The team also has a lot of edge rushers on the roster, having drafted two in the latter rounds in the last draft.
Trading Down
What if Washington doesn’t stay at the number 11 pick? When you look at the players that Washington brought in for interviews, they cover a wide range of possible picks in the first and second rounds. I believe the reason for this is that the Commanders front office is preparing the possibly of a trade back in the first round and that there is a significant possibility of this happening.
Will it actually come to fruition? That depends on how the picks go in positions one through ten. If a certain player or players fall to the eleventh spot, I can see a few teams wanting to move up to 11th to “get their guy”. Who are those teams? I think there are possibly four teams that might be interested in moving up to the Commanders first round spot: New Orleans Saints (16,19), Pittsburgh Steelers (20), Green Bay Packers (22,28) and Kansas City Chiefs (29,30).
The Steelers supposedly have interest in quarterback Kenny Pickett and the Saints are taking a long look at quarterback Matt Corral. The Packers and Chiefs might be interested in the one of more elite round one wide receivers. Some possible trade scenarios between these teams and the Commanders could look something like this [looking at approximate equal trade values]:
- New Orleans, which has 4 picks in the top 100 picks, including two first round picks, could package up the 19th pick with their 2022 third round pick (98th) and 2023 third rounder for Washington’s 11th
- Pittsburgh which doesn’t have as much draft capital this year as other teams, so they would probably use picks from 2022 and 2023 – for example, Washington could receive 2022 picks 20 and 84, plus 2023 3rd and 5th round picks for pick 11.
- With 10 picks in the draft, Green Bay could send Washington 2022 picks 22, 53 and 92 for pick 11 which would be huge for Washington, replacing picks used in the Carson Wentz trade.
- Kansas City, which like Green Bay has two first round picks, could send Washington 2022 first round picks 29 and 30 for pick 11.
Noone’s Prediction
I think there is only about a 35% chance of a trade back occurring. Washington will take a wide receiver with the pick at number 11, Garret Wilson from Ohio State or Jameson Williams from Alabama. Basically, they’ll take whichever player is left on the board at wide receiver when it is time to pick at #11. The defense will get help at the #47 pick, with Washington adding a defensive back or linebacker. Also, it would not be a surprise if Washington selected a defensive tackle at #47 to fill the departure of Matt Ioannidis and possible departure of Daron Payne. The surprise pick in the second round for me would be a running back, even though they need more offensive weapons.
The final mock draft statistics:
Freshness Rating
57.3% of the mock draft data for this week is is 20 days or newer and 42.7% is 21 days or older. 67.7% of the mocks tracked have been updated in the last month (within 28 days).
| Age | Age % |
| New | 26.33% |
| 1 Week Old | 17.33% |
| 2 Weeks Old | 13.67% |
| 3 Weeks Old | 10.33% |
| 4 Weeks Old | 4.00% |
| 5+ Weeks Old | 28.33% |
| Grand Total | 100.00% |
Position Distribution
The number of mocks is up 47 this week to 300 overall, up over 18.6% from last week. Wide receiver and safety continue to climb while quarterback continues to drop.
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| WR | 120 | 40.00% | 37.15% | 2.85% |
| QB | 60 | 20.00% | 26.09% | -6.09% |
| S | 60 | 20.00% | 16.60% | 3.40% |
| CB | 35 | 11.67% | 11.46% | 0.20% |
| OT | 13 | 4.33% | 4.35% | -0.01% |
| LB | 6 | 2.00% | 2.77% | -0.77% |
| DT | 3 | 1.00% | 0.79% | 0.21% |
| TE | 1 | 0.33% | 0.40% | -0.06% |
| IOL | 1 | 0.33% | 0.40% | -0.06% |
| Edge | 1 | 0.33% | 0.45% | -0.12% |
| RB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Grand Total | 300 | 100% |
Looking at the mocks from the past 20 days, over 87% of the mocks have focused on the wide receiver, safety and cornerback positions.
| Position | Pick Count | Pick % |
| WR | 80 | 46.51% |
| S | 48 | 27.91% |
| CB | 22 | 12.79% |
| OT | 8 | 4.65% |
| QB | 6 | 3.49% |
| LB | 3 | 1.74% |
| DT | 2 | 1.16% |
| IOL | 1 | 0.58% |
| Edge | 1 | 0.58% |
| TE | 1 | 0.58% |
| Grand Total | 172 | 100.00% |
The players mock picked to Washington at the 11th pick are in descending frequency:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Kyle Hamilton | S | Notre Dame | 58 | 19.33% |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | Ohio State | 48 | 16.00% |
| Drake London | WR | USC | 39 | 13.00% |
| Derek Stingley Jr | CB | LSU | 25 | 8.33% |
| Kenny Pickett | QB | Pittsburgh | 21 | 7.00% |
| Chris Olave | WR | Ohio State | 19 | 6.33% |
| Malik Willis | QB | Liberty | 16 | 5.33% |
| Sam Howell | QB | North Carolina | 11 | 3.67% |
| Matt Corral | QB | Mississippi | 9 | 3.00% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | Alabama | 9 | 3.00% |
| Charles Cross | OT | Mississippi State | 6 | 2.00% |
| Ahmad Gardner | CB | Cincinnati | 6 | 2.00% |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Arkansas | 5 | 1.67% |
| Devin Lloyd | LB | Utah | 4 | 1.33% |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | Washington | 3 | 1.00% |
| Jordan Davis | DT | Georgia | 3 | 1.00% |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | Cincinnati | 3 | 1.00% |
| Ikem Ekwonu | OT | NC State | 3 | 1.00% |
| Nakobe Dean | LB | Georgia | 2 | 0.67% |
| Trevor Penning | OT | Northern Iowa | 2 | 0.67% |
| Evan Neal | OT | Alabama | 2 | 0.67% |
| Draxton Hill | S | Michigan | 2 | 0.67% |
| Kenyon Green | IOL | Texas A&M | 1 | 0.33% |
| Jermaine Johnson | Edge | Florida State | 1 | 0.33% |
| Andrew Booth Jr. | CB | Clemson | 1 | 0.33% |
| Trey McBride | TE | Colorado State | 1 | 0.33% |
| Grand Total | 300 | 100.00% |
Kyle Hamilton remains at the top list over Garrett Wilson with Drake London in the third spot on the board.
Looking at the mocks from the past 20 days, the top nine picks, which cover 87% of the mock picks, doesn’t include any quarterbacks. Wide receivers cover four of the nine picks with Garrett Wilson leading. Kyle Hamilton is the lobe safety, with Derek Stingley Jr. leading the three cornerback picks. Charles Cross is the remaining player at offensive line. No linebackers or quarterbacks are on the recent mock list.
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Kyle Hamilton | S | Notre Dame | 46 | 26.74% |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | Ohio State | 29 | 16.86% |
| Drake London | WR | USC | 26 | 15.12% |
| Derek Stingley Jr | CB | LSU | 15 | 8.72% |
| Chris Olave | WR | Ohio State | 15 | 8.72% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | Alabama | 9 | 5.23% |
| Ahmad Gardner | CB | Cincinnati | 4 | 2.33% |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | Washington | 3 | 1.74% |
| Charles Cross | OT | Mississippi State | 3 | 1.74% |
Trades
There were five new trades this period, all trade downs, which matches the Commanders purported desire. For the Commanders, moving back in the draft and gaining more picks is the more sensible move they could make on day one of the draft. Trading back and taking a quarterback is where mocker lose me.
| Days Old | Notes | Trade Direction | Trade Position | Trade Team | Player |
| 1 | The Ravens give 14th overall, 100th overall and 119th overall to the Commanders for 11th overall. | Down | 14 | MIN | Drake London |
| 1 | Commanders Receive: No. 20, No. 52 and 2023 third-round pick Steelers Receive: No. 11 |
Down | 20 | PIT | Garrett Wilson |
| 2 | WAS gets NO #16, #19 for pick #11. #19 mock pick is Trent McDuffie | Down | 16 | NO | Jameson Williams |
| 6 | Washington gets No. 23, No. 55 and a 2023 third-round pick from Arizona for pick 11 | Down | 26 | AZ | Desmond Ridder |
| 8 | WAS receives 20th, 52nd overall, PIT gets 11th | Down | 20 | PIT | Kyle Hamilton |
| 12 | No details provided | Up | 4 | NYJ | Malik Willis |
| 13 | No details provided | Down | 20 | PIT | Devin Lloyd |
| 44 | Atlanta receives pick 11, 42, 2023 3rd rounder, Washington receives picks 8 and 2023 7th rounder. | Up | 8 | ATL | Malik Willis |
| 47 | Pittsburgh Steelers receive pick 11. Washington Commanders receive picks 20, 52, 2023 third-round pick | Down | 20 | PIT | Chris Olave |
| 58 | Washington Commanders send picks 11 and 42 to the Carolina Panthers for picks 6 and 144 | Up | 6 | CAR | Kenny Pickett |
| 50 | Washington Commanders receive picks 18, 49, and 100. New Orleans Saints receive pick 11 | Down | 18 | NO | Sam Howell |
Key Mockers
Here’s a last look at some of the key mocker’s picks:
| Site | Author | Player | Position | School |
| College Football Metrics | Xavier Cromartie | Kyle Hamilton | S | Notre Dame |
| ESPN | Mel Kiper | Kyle Hamilton | S | Notre Dame |
| ESPN | Todd McShay | Chris Olave | WR | Ohio State |
| Establish the Run | Evan Silva | Jameson Williams | WR | Alabama |
| NBC Sports | Peter King | Chris Olave | WR | Ohio State |
| NFL.com | Lance Zierlein | Drake London | WR | USC |
| San Diego Union Tribune | Eddie Brown | Garrett Wilson | WR | Ohio State |
| Sharp Football Analysis | Ryan McCrystal | Kyle Hamilton | S | Notre Dame |
| SI.com | Albert Breer | Chris Olave | WR | Ohio State |
| SI.com | Kevin Hanson | Drake London | WR | USC |
| The Athletic | Ben Standig | Drake London | WR | USC |
| Walter Football | Walter Cherepinsky | Jameson Williams | WR | Alabama |
| Washington Post | Mark Maske | Drake London | WR | USC |
Time until NFL Draft on April 28-30: Less than 24 hours
Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com