Road to the Draft – Wrap-Up
May 3, 2022
By Noonefromtampa
The 2022 NFL Draft is now in the books. Let’s take a look at how the results stacked up against the predictions.
In the final total of 333 mock drafts tracked, 46% of the mockers had Washington taking a wide receiver in round 1 but exactly zero picked the Commanders taking Jahan Dotson in that round.
I predicted about a 35% chance of a trade back, which Washington did accomplish, plus the compensation was in-line with the prediction for a trade with the Saints. Garrett Wilson was off the board, but by trading down the Commanders elected to pass on most the players mocked to them: Kyle Hamilton, Jameson Williams, and Chris Olave. All those players were taken from pick 11 to pick 15.
Most of the picks went for positions for which people expected the team to draft. While many fans were clamoring for drafting a middle linebacker, the team plays a lot of one and two linebacker sets on defense, so the front office apparently did not view that as a high priority need on draft day.
The team’s interior defensive line need was met with by the pick of Phidarian Mathis in round 2. Mathis was projected to be around the 75th overall pick in the third round by draft prognosticators. The Commanders were criticized for over-drafting him in the second round.
The team was looking to add offensive weapons and did that in the third and fifth rounds. Brian Robinson, running back from Alabama and a team of Mathis, was selected in the third round. The reasoning behind this is that he is an excellent short yardage runner inside, something the team missed when Peyton Barber left the team last year. Plus, Robinson can spell Antonio Gibson, hopefully keeping him fresh and available later in the season.
Quarterback Sam Howell, who many predicted as a third round pick, was selected at the top of the 5th round and fulfills the third string QB role for the team. This is a good move as there is no pressure on Howell or Carson Wentz with this pick, and it gives Howell a chance to sit and learn for a season.
Tight end Cole Turner was also selected in the 5th round. Wentz loves throwing to tight ends and Turner is a bit a of a Zach Ertz clone in terms of physical attributes and playing style. He converted to tight end from wide receiver just two years ago, so he is still learning the nuances of the position. Tight end was not viewed by many (including myself) as a high priority in the draft, but Wentz loves throwing to tight ends and with Logan Thomas coming off an injury and the overall youthful of the position group, there was room to add another player here.
Percy Butler, a safety from Brian Mitchell’s alma mater, Louisiana at Lafayette, was Washington’s 4th round pick. He immediately fills the Deshazor Everett role on special teams. He is a very good tackler and played on most special teams in college.
The 7th round saw Washington take a couple of developmental picks in offensive linemen Chris Paul from Tulsa and Oklahoma St. cornerback Christian Holmes.
At this point in most column, people give some sort of grade which is sort of ridiculous considering no of the players have even been on the field yet for the team that selected them. The more appropriate grade goes to the front office, and you must take look at the whole offseason picture.
The Wentz trade impacted both the draft (3rd round pick lost, 7th round pick gained) and the salary cap (Landon Collins, Ereck Flowers and Matthew Ioannidis all released, and Tim Settle not re-signed). The Commanders replaced Flowers with Andrew Norwell and drafted Mathis to fill defensive line gap. They were able to trade back twice and get three additional players (Robinson, Howell and Turner), while still getting a pretty good wide receiver in Dotson. I would grade this offseason as a B- so far. I think Washington will still be looking to add a couple of more veteran players in the weeks ahead and have the chance to push up the grade to a solid B.
The net result of all these offseason moves is that Ron Rivera has cast his future on the back of Wentz. I don’t think that the Commanders co-owners will be happy with anything less than a 10 win season. If that does not come to fruition, the fans may experience another whirlpool of change that will cause upheaval across the franchise.
What the Mockers Did!
Ben Standig, the Commanders beat reporter from The Athletic, tied for first place this year alongside Forrest N. Long and Ron Stewart from The Huddle Report. This is Standig’s third win and his five year average places him 8th overall. The top mockers over the last 5 years are Matthew Jones of the Draft Examiner, Brendan Donahue of Sharp Football Analysis, Evan Silva of Establish the Run, and Eddie Brown (no relation to the former Washington player of the same name) of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, thehuddlereport.com