Free-Agents-To-Be in 2023: Big Year, Big Decisions – Cole Holcomb
May 12, 2022
By Paul Francis
As of the writing of this column, according to Spotrac, the Washington Commanders have 21 players slated to be free agents after the upcoming season. This means 2022 is the prove-it year for both those individual players and for the team, whether it’s the players proving themselves worthy of a rich extension or the team proving itself capable of re-signing its own top talent. I’ll be doing a mini-series profiling a few of the key free-agents-to-be and how they fit into the Commanders future plans, if at all.
This week we look at one of our more intriguing guys: linebacker Cole Holcomb.
Player & Production
Cole Holcomb was drafted in the 5th round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Despite flashing elite agility and speed in his pro-day workout, he lacked the size and strength to be considered anything more than a Day 3 pick. NFL Next Gen Stats gave Holcomb a prospect grade of 5.90, projecting him as an average backup/special teamer. But Cole Holcomb seems to have a knack for exceeding expectations.
He was a freshman walk-on at the University of North Carolina. By his senior year he’d earned 2nd Team All-ACC honors. Projected to be a backup/special-teamer as a pro, Holcomb has developed into a full-time starter. In 3 seasons, Holcomb played primarily as a SAM (strongside linebacker), but switched to MIKE (middle linebacker) for stretches last season as part of a year-long shuffling of the LB corps.
He’s averaged 106 tackles a season, while compiling 4.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 9 pass deflections, 3 interceptions, 1 TD, 1 all-time devastation of Ezekiel Elliot, and perhaps the most glorious mullet in the NFL. While the numbers seem solid, Pro Football Focus’s analytics do not flatter. In 2021 Holcomb earned only a 54.8 in their grading system (40th of 88 qualifying linebackers). It’s debatable whether this says more about Cole Holcomb or PFF’s grading system, because many observers viewed 2021 as a breakout year for him. In a season that saw constant defensive realignment and personnel switches, Holcomb was the linebacking mainstay. He played 100% of the defensive snaps in 15 of the 16 games he appeared, missing only 1 tilt against Dallas due to the team COVID outbreak in December. Holcomb played a total of 980 snaps, and Jamin Davis was the next closest linebacker playing 559.
Prospects For the Future
So, what is Cole Holcomb? An average, yet reliable, linebacker who stands out mostly because he plays on a mediocre unit? Or an ascending player who can be a fixture in a (hopefully) ascending defense? I lean towards the latter version, and I think the Commanders do as well. The organizational chatter around Holcomb isn’t whether they want to keep him, but where to play him. After the 2021 season Holcomb said he’d like a chance to play MIKE full-time, and it seems that the team is open to trying that. Ron Rivera’s postseason evaluation of Cole Holcomb reshaped the way they see him moving forward. Responding to a recent question about why the team has not pursued a MIKE in free agency, GM Martin Mayhew said:
“We feel like Cole Holcomb has a chance to go in there and play MIKE for us, so there’s not a tremendous urgency to go and do something right there. He did a good job when he was in there. He kind of grew in that position last year when he got an opportunity to play some MIKE. We’ll see how it plays out…Cole’s an option for us.”
MIKE is a premium position often called the “quarterback of the defense”, who is not only responsible for diagnosing offense and making plays, but also getting the whole defense properly aligned in pre-snap formation. If Holcomb can pull off this transition it bodes well for team, which has lacked a consistent MIKE/ILB since the days of London Fletcher, and for him personally since solidifying the MIKE would bump his overall value.
Holcomb has been one of the best values on the team, averaging a salary of $750K on his 4-year rookie deal, though his salary in 2022 jumps to about $2.6 million. It will be interesting to see how the team approaches an extension for Holcomb. They could negotiate with him this summer while he’s still under contract, or they could wait and see how 2022 plays out as he switches positions to MIKE. The benefit to waiting is that the team will get a chance to see how he handles the MIKE position in a full-time capacity before making a long-term investment. The risk in waiting is that if he plays really well, the price could rise significantly, or he could choose to test free agency where anything could happen. Or (God forbid) the team gets into a franchise tag situation.
The free agent contracts for MIKE/ILBs have been interesting to watch this year. Foyesade Oluokun won free agency landing a contract worth $15 million/year with the Jaguars. All-Pros Bobby Wagner and De’Vondre Campbell each signed contracts worth $10 million/year with the Rams and Packers, respectively. One level down, Myles Jack is making about $8 million/year with the Steelers. But those players are proven league-leading vets at the position, and Cole Holcomb isn’t likely to fetch a contract at that level. More likely, he could land a deal in the range of Jordan Hicks (Vikings), Kyzir White (Eagles) or Josey Jewell (Broncos): $4-6 million/year depending on performance incentives. Of course, Holcomb could also end up going to the Pro Bowl, which would obviously change the terms. Remember, he has a knack for outperforming expectations.
Conclusion
While the Commanders defense has potential superstar-power at other spots, Cole Holcomb is one of the unsung heroes. He’s a 5th round guy who has stood out in a unit flush with 1st round picks (Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Jamin Davis) and pricey additions (William Jackson III, Landon Collins). His work ethic, versatility and reliability have rightly earned him respect and put him in position to become one of the cornerstones for the defense. He’s the kind of homegrown draft-n-develop success story that good franchises are built around. I think the Commanders would be wise to lock him up now, instead of waiting for a year where his price is likely to rise.
Either way, I hope to watch Cole Holcomb make plays like this (yeah, let’s watch it again!) for the Commanders for years to come.