The Intriguing Potential of Sam Howell

May 27, 2022

by David Earl

Who Is Sam Howell

Two years removed from being touted as the top overall prospect, Sam Howell fell to the 5th round in the April draft, and Washington did not hesitate to select him. He brings a very dynamic arm and excellent mobility inside and outside the pocket while demonstrating a very strong arm for tight-window throws. He not only has good deep ball accuracy but also makes well-anticipated throws at all levels of the field when he is in a good rhythm. He’s a smart quarterback in pre-snap reads, but will get into zones where his field vision can narrow, which leads to poor decisions at times. Playing in an RPO-heavy offense in college, Sam did develop a tendency to run the ball quicker than he should and not allow the play to fully develop. He will need to work on his footwork and mechanics such as having a long winding throwing motion that NFL edge rushers will take advantage of. He’ll need time to develop his processing speed post-snap as he learns NFL coverages and schemes.

Of course, there is a reason for Sam Howell’s slide in this year’s draft but the complete picture may not be painted. Altough his yards per attempt dropped by 1.5, interception percentage went up .6 %, and his overall rating had about a 25-point dropoff from his 2020 to 2021 season, all the blame shouldn’t be put on Howell. In that corresponding offseason, he lost NFL caliber talent to the draft in running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter plus his biggest playmakers in wide receivers Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown. Losing that much talent at once is hard enough but now Sam had to build chemistry in a single offseason with brand new weapons who weren’t nearly as effective as the aforementioned players. I’m not making excuses for him, either: the loss of these players brought to light some of his weaknesses, such as decision-making in his progressions which amplified his tendency to not allow a play to develop being far too quick to run at times. You could say that whatever could happen did happen, and his response to this adversity was not received too well by league scouts. However, that doesn’t mean Sam cannot be a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.  His 2021 season could be a blessing in disguise in that it unveiled the flaws in his game which need development and growth.

College Career Stats:

Year	Team	Lg	G	GS	Att	Cmp	Pct	Yds	YPA	YPG	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lg	FD	20+	Sack	Loss	Rate
2019	North Carolina	FBS	13	13	422	259	61.4	3,641	8.6	280.1	38	9.0	7	1.7	68t	163	—	36	220	160.2
2020	North Carolina	FBS	12	12	348	237	68.1	3,586	10.3	298.8	30	8.6	7	2.0	87	148	—	33	201	179.1
2021	North Carolina	FBS	12	12	347	217	62.5	3,056	8.8	254.7	24	6.9	9	2.6	76t	114	—	47	274	154.2
	TOTALS	FBS	37	37	1,117	713	63.8	10,283	9.2	277.9	92	8.2	23	2.1	87	425	—	116	695	164.2

Does Howell Fit Turner’s Offense?

Scott Turner‘s offense has been limited by the lack of quarterback talent and skill position playmakers, especially on the edges. Aside from Terry McLaurin, the wide receiver group has been a revolving door of “jags” plus a high-profile gadget player in Curtis Samuel who barely got on the field last season. When J.D. McKissic went down with injury, the offense went completely south as Gibson was inconsistent and Washington’s second-best receiver, DeAndre Carter, was a specialty player.  Considering what Turner has had to work with from the limitations at quarterback and minimal skill players, the offense actually over-achieved at times because of his scheme designs. Before I go off on too much of a tangent, what does this rambling mean?

For starters, Scott Turner can utilize Sam’s athleticism by incorporating more RPO, a system North Carolina predominately ran, with his scheme that will ultimately create a more dynamic running game. As Sam grows and develops the passing game should take a leap forward, especially with a healthy Curtis Samuel and the additions of Jahan Dotson and Cole Turner. Of course, all this is predicated on Sam’s growth, Scott Turner’s play calls, and the skill position talent performing at the potential they are capable of.

With this potential talent in place, Howell can very well elevate Scott’s offense into a dynamic and explosive unit. Looking back at his 2019 and 2020 seasons in North Carolina, when he had NFL caliber weapons in place, Sam ranked amount the best in college football as a result of his precise deep ball accuracy ranking first in completions, passing yards, TDs, and (according to PFF) big-time throws. Sam Howell has the precise arm talent on 20-plus yard attempts that can open up the playbook combined with his athleticism and mobility within the pocket to keep defenses on their heels.

Carson Wentz a Preview to Sam Howell?

With the exception of size, Howell really measures up fairly well to Wentz in arm strength, mobility, and his ability to make a play on the move from the pocket. As was true for Wentz when he entered his rookie season, Howell has to develop his mechanics and in processing post-snap reads. However, unlike Wentz’s rookie campaign, Howell will not be thrown to the wolves with high expectations in his rookie season, and that will allow for proper development and growth. As we enter the 2022 season, what Turner is hoping Wentz will do to his offense are exactly the intangibles Sam Howell brings for the future. Wentz’s deep ball accuracy will open up the offense, which will create more versatility in play-calling, especially with a more dynamic run attack. Scott became predictable at times in these past two season, Wentz will force defenses to not only defend all 3 levels of the field now but also scheme against what should be a much more explosive running game with a healthy Curtis Samuel.

Am I saying Sam is the next Carson Wentz prior to his injuries? No. That having been said, with Howell being allowed the time afforded to him for development and growth, the possibility becomes more likely. Sam will not only learn behind two veterans in Wentz and Taylor Heinicke but he will get acclimated to the speed and nuances of the game as he refines his mechanics. Without question his floor is a high-level backup but, with time and development, Sam Howell could very well mature into an above-average starter or more.