Free-Agents-To-Be in 2023
June 2, 2022
by Paul Francis
As of the writing of this column, the Washington Commanders have 21 players slated to be free agents after the upcoming season. This means 2022 is the prove-it year both for those individual players and for the team, whether it’s the player proving themselves worthy of a rich extension or the team proving itself capable of re-signing its own top talent. I’m in the midst a mini-series profiling a few of the key free-agents-to-be and how they fit into the Commanders future plans, if at all.
In this final installment we take a look at a player who has already etched him name in Washington football lore – quarterback Taylor Heinicke.
Player
The Ballad of Taylor Heinicke is a familiar tale to anyone who has been following Washington’s football team in the Ron Rivera Era.
Heinicke played college football in the Commanders’ backyard as an Old Dominion University Monarch. Named the starter in 2011, Heinicke garnered several accolades for his play while ODU remained an FCS school, including 2 FCS All-American awards in 2011 and 2012, before making the jump to Conference USA in the FBS for his final season in 2014.
Despite the best efforts of notorious blog hype-man, Robbie “Dead-Eye” Duncan, who knew Heinicke from his own ODU days, Heinicke was not selected in the 2015 NFL Draft. Over the next several years, he would have an undrafted journeyman’s adventure through the rosters of the Vikings, Patriots, Texans, Panthers and St. Louis Battlehawks, before finding himself sleeping on his sister’s couch contemplating his future in football and returning to ODU to finish a math degree.
Then the call came.
In December 2020, with COVID threatening entire position groups, Scott Turner reached out to Heinicke and offered him a roster spot as a COVID “emergency” QB. He would study and practice separately from the rest of the QBs, in case a COVID close-contact or outbreak situation made the other quarterbacks ineligible to play. So Heinicke swapped his differential equations textbook for Scott Turner’s playbook, and the rest is history. Between injury and ineffective play of the quarterbacks ahead of him, Heinicke eventually got his shot in Week 16 against his former Panthers team. Playing mop-up duty in the 4th quarter, Heinicke went on to mop the field with the Panthers defense to the tune of 12-19, 137 yards and 1 touchdown in a valiant last quarter effort to salvage the game.
Even though the effort fell short of victory, Heinicke impressed. Extending plays with his athleticism and completing throws beyond the first checkdown, Washington’s passing game bore some resemblance to an NFL-caliber passing game for the first time all year. The performance was enough for Ron Rivera to hand him the start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the playoffs when incumbent starter Alex Smith was deemed too injured to play.
Heinicke did not disappoint. Flashing the moxie and improvisation of a true gunslinger, Heinicke threw, scrambled and pylon-dove his way to a 300 yard day with a passing and rushing touchdown to boot against the vaunted would-be-champion Bucs defense. And while the scoreboard would say that Washington lost the game, the hearts and minds of Washington were won over.
Not even the 2021 offseason signing of the O.G. Journeyman-Gunslinger himself, Ryan Fitzpatrick, could get in the way of Heinicke’s date with destiny. Fitzpatrick lasted all of 6 passing attempts before a leaky offensive line and a buckled hip would end his season (and likely career). Because…well…it’s Washington. With Fitzpatrick on injured reserve, it was time for Washington to scratch the big itch and see what Heinicke-The-Fulltime-Starter could be…
Production
Not to put too much of a damper on the Ballad of Taylor Heinicke, but he ended up proving to be a backup masquerading as a starter when you look at the production. Heinicke’s athleticism, ability to grasp the offense and rise-to-the-occasion intangibles are not enough to mask the obvious physical shortcomings in his game; most notably arm-strength. There’s the ole saying – “Defensive coordinators get paid too”. And over the course of a full season, defensive coordinators were able to diagnose the weaknesses of Heinicke’s passing ability and adjust accordingly.
He finished the 2021 season with 3419 passing yards (19th), 20 touchdowns (17th), and 15 interceptions (27th). His 85.9 passer rating was 25th, sandwiched between Ben Roethlisberger and Daniel Jones. His 39.9 QBR was 23rd in the NFL sandwiched between Daniel Jones and Jared Goff. So whether you look at the simple production stats or the advanced metrics, Taylor Heinicke rates somewhere in the bottom-half to bottom-third of NFL starters last season. And when your name keeps coming up comparably with Daniel Jones…
That’s not to say there weren’t bright spots in his play. He’s clearly intelligent enough to run the offense and spread the ball around to different spots. His athleticism and play-extending improvisation has, on the balance, been more of a help than a hindrance in keeping the chains moving. Heinicke also has displayed the intangible leadership skills that the other players respect.
Potential Future
Heinicke will make about $3 million in salary this season, his last year of a 2-year deal. But Washington’s decisive move to get Carson Wentz and name him the starter was a clear indicator that the coaches don’t view Heinicke as NFL starting material moving forward. But that’s not to say he cannot play an important role on the team. When you assess the totality of Heinicke’s strengths, weaknesses, and game performances, it’s clear that his best niche is as a luxury backup. He’s a player who can confidently step into a game in a pinch and give the team a proper chance to win, or be a spot-starter for a couple games and keep things competitive. He knows the offense, has the respect of teammates and enough trust from the coaches to play the backup role well. And given the health dangers of the NFL, a backup quarterback can be the difference between a lost season and a season salvaged. After all, we’ve seen it here before…with Taylor Heinicke.
Conclusion
I really don’t know what to make of Heinicke’s future beyond this season in Washington. In my opinion, it depends more on the development of Sam Howell than the play of Carson Wentz. If Howell impresses coaches over the course of the season, I can see him leap-frogging Heinicke if Carson Wentz gets injured or craps out as a starter. I think it’s clear that the coaches have rendered a verdict on Heinicke as a starter, so remaining on the roster as a backup is the opportunity he has in front of him. But Heinicke has shown the NFL that he has enough there to belong on an NFL roster in some capacity. So whether in Washington or elsewhere, I imagine that the Ballad of Taylor Heinicke has verses yet to be told…