Position Group Breakdown 2022: Quarterbacks
June 9, 2022
by Steve Thomas
Welcome to The Hog Sty’s Position Group Breakdown series! This week, we’re going to tackle the Redskins’ Commanders’ Washington’s quarterback room. The team has obviously made big changes to the group this offseason, so both remaining fans of the team are anxiously waiting to see whether the arrival of Carson Wentz as the latest quarterback savior proves fruitful. However, if the same ‘ole, same ‘ole happens, Washington now has a pretty solid group of passers behind him to take up the slack. Let’s get into it.
QB1: Carson Wentz
Wentz (6’5” / 240) was the second overall pick in round 1 by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2016 draft. In college, he played for North Dakota St., redshirting his freshman year in 2011, then playing the next four seasons, with 392 completions in 612 attempts, for 5115 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 45 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. In his final collegiate season, 2015, he completed 130 of 208 attempts for 1651 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He participated in the 2016 NFL Combine, running the 40 yard dash in 4.77 seconds and the 3 cone drill in 6.86 seconds, and jumping 30.5 inches in the vertical leap and 9’10” in the standing broad jump.
During his NFL career, Wentz has played and started 85 games in 6 seasons, completing 1884 passes in 3008 attempts for 20,374 yards, 6.8 yards per attempt, 62.6% completion percentage, 140 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions. He was a Second-team All Pro and Pro Bowl selection in 2017. Wentz’s high-water mark in terms of completion percentage was 2018, when he went 279 for 401 for 3074 yards, 69.6% completion percentage, 21 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 11 games. Wentz’s 2017 season was an outlier in completion percentage – every other season of his career was between 57.4% in 2020 and 63.9% in 2019. Therefore, him posting a number in the low-60s range in Washington seems pretty likely.
Wentz’s two best years as measured by quarterback rating were 2017 and 2018, during which he earned ratings of 101.9 and 102.2, respectively. The low point of his career by almost every measure was his last year in Philadelphia, 2020, in which he earned the aforementioned 57.4% completion percentage, plus a quarterback rating of 72.8, a touchdown percentage of just 3.7%, and an interception rate of 3.4%.
The Eagles traded Wentz after the 2020 season, but were obviously not sold on him as far back as the end of the 2019 season since they drafted his replacement, Jalen Hurts. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson claimed at the time that Hurts wasn’t supposed to be Wentz’s replacement, but instead was going to fill a Taysom Hill-type role. Wentz’s fate was sealed after a negative end to the 2020 season and he was replaced as starter in week 13. The Eagles traded him to Indianapolis, but that ended up being a train wreck for most of the season, particularly towards the end.
So here we are. Wentz has a $28.3M cap hit this season, so he’s going to start in 2022 no matter what. However, Washington could cut him at a massive savings next year, so if things go south, the team could get rid of him and move on. What can Washington expect this year? There’s no doubt that he has all of the physical attributes of an elite NFL quarterback, but it’s tough to say how things will go. Wentz has said and done the right things so far. We’ve published a number of Wentz-related columns this offseason, including most recently an analysis of his leadership abilities by David Earl (click here to read). My guess is that Wentz will do fairly well as a team leader, and will post good but not great numbers, with a completion percentage in the low 60s, and a quarterback rating in the low 90s.
QB2: Taylor Heinicke
Heinicke, who stands 6’1” and weighs 210 pounds and played his college ball at Old Dominion University, bounced around the NFL before finding a home in Washington. He went undrafted in the 2015 NFL draft, but was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Minnesota Vikings, where he first encountered current Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who was then the Vikings’ quarterbacks coach. He was released by the Vikings after two injury-marred seasons. Heinicke then spent a brief period with the New England Patriots before being released again in October. He was picked up by the Houston Texans for the 2017 season, then reunited with Turner again in Carolina in 2018. The injury bug struck Heinicke again, however, as he suffered an elbow injury in week 16 that season and was again placed on injured reserve for the final week of Carolina’s 2018 season. The Panthers re-signed Heinicke for the 2019 season, but subsequently cut him at the end of training camp. He was out of the NFL until Washington signed him to be their emergency quarterback late last season.
Heinicke improbably produced when given an opportunity in week 16 of the 2020 season in relief of the injured Alex Smith, going 12 for 19 for 137 yards and 1 touchdown in less than two quarters of action. He then played at a level far above expectations in the Redskins’ Washington’s Wild Card game against the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, completing 26 passes in 44 attempts for 306 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception (caused by a tipped ball). Incredibly, Heinicke was the first undrafted quarterback to start a playoff game for Washington since 1932.
He started to show some of his limitations when he became the full-time starter in 2021 after Ryan Fitzpatrick went down to injury in the first quarter of week 1. Heinicke’s lack of arm strength had a big impact on his effectiveness and his ability to hit receivers in tight windows. His positives were on display as well, including his outstanding rushing ability, leadership, and undefinable on-field moxie. In total, Heinicke’s NFL regular season stats in Washington include 17 games played with 15 starts, 313 completions in 533 attempts for 3556 yards, a 64.9% completion percentage, 21 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a 86.5 quarterback rating. Those stats do not include the playoff game.
Heinicke seems to be an ideal NFL backup quarterback. He’s someone who can come in when needed and mostly play well for a short period a time, but one who needs his receivers to get open and who will eventually be figured out by opposing defenses. The only question is whether Sam Howell will be able to overtake him for the #2 slot. He has a $3.625M cap hit in 2022.
QB3: Sam Howell
Howell, 6’1” and 218 pounds, was one of Washington’s two fifth round picks this year. He spent three years at North Carolina for his college ball, starting each season. In total, he played 37 games, with 713 completions in 1117 attempts, 10,283 yards, a 63.8% completion percentage, 92 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions, plus 1009 rushing yards in 369 carries, for an average of 2.7 yards per carry. In 2021, Howell made 217 completions in 347 attempts, 3056 yards, a 62.5% completion percentage, 24 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He earned Second-team All-ACC honors in 2020.
Howell has a strong but not elite arm by NFL standards. He reads the field well a fair bit of the time and can sometimes make amazing throws into tight windows. The problem is that at other times, he looks awful. Inconsistency is Howell’s trademark. He has a habit of rotating between amazing throws and either bad throws or risky decisions. Howell is a good athlete and can at some level be a dual threat quarterback in the NFL. He wasn’t helped by a North Carolina offensive line that allowed significant pressure at times, and some substandard receiving play. Howell is not unlike Heinicke, in that he’s a bit undersized, can run, and has moments of greatness coupled with moments of awful. Certainly, though, Howell has a better arm and is a better prospect than was Heinicke when he came out of college.
I had Howell rated as a low second round prospect. With Carson Wentz on the roster in Washington, the team won’t look to him to start any time soon. In the best case scenario, he beats out Heinicke for the backup role. Otherwise, Howell will either serve as the third stringer on the active roster or spend the year on the practice squad.
QB4: Cole Kelley
Kelley is enormous by quarterback standards, standing 6’7” and weighing 250 pounds. He was an undrafted free agent signee out of Southeastern Louisiana, although he spent the first two years of his college career at the University of Arkansas before transferring prior to the 2019 season. He posted crazy numbers for Southeastern Louisiana in 2021, playing 13 games, completing 406 passes in 552 attempts for 5124 yards, a 73.6% completion percentage, 44 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. However, Southeastern Louisiana runs a wide-open offense known for posting huge numbers, and plays a schedule that’s nowhere near a Division 10-quality slate.
For now, Kelley is a camp arm. The idea of the team keeping four quarterbacks on the active, regular season roster is simply an impossibility. The best Kelley can probably hope for is a practice squad spot, which isn’t that far-fetched considering the NFL has expanded that unit in the past couple of years.