What Washington should do about Terry McLaurin
June 21, 2022
by Steve Thomas
Redskins Washington Football Team Commanders the name should’ve stayed Redskins Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin is but the latest talented player to become embroiled in a contract dispute with the team. Like Kirk Cousins and Brandon Scherff before him, McLaurin has apparently demanded a top of the market-level contract, but the team thusfar hasn’t made such an offer. What are Washington’s options and to what sort of contract could the two parties possibly agree? In this column, I’ll examine some recent comparables, take a stab at what a contract for McLaurin could possibly look like, and what the team should do if an agreement can’t be reached this offseason.
Background
McLaurin, who stands 6’0” and weighs 208 pounds, spent four years at Ohio St., and started alongside former Washington quarterback Dwayne Haskins in 2018, who tragically passed away recently. During that time, McLaurin played a total of 44 games, making 75 receptions for 1,251 yards, 167 yards per catch, and 19 touchdowns. In 2018, McLaurin had 35 receptions, 701 yards, 20.0 yards per catch, and had 11 touchdowns. McLaurin is a burner, running the 40 yard dash in 4.354 seconds at the NFL Combine (3rd-best among receivers and 5th-best overall). He also jumped 37.5 inches in the vertical leap and 10’5” inches in the standing broad jump, ran the 3 cone drill in 7.01 seconds, and the 20 yard short shuttle in 4.15 seconds.
In his NFL career, he’s played and started in 46 games, with a total of 222 receptions in 357 targets, 3090 yards, 13.9 yards per reception, 16 touchdowns, and a 62.4% catch percentage. He’s averaged 74 receptions and 5 touchdowns per season. Last year, McLaurin played 17 games, and had 77 receptions in 130 targets, 1053 yards, 5 touchdowns, 13.7 yards per catch, and a 59.2% catch percentage. He has not been elected to a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro team.
The current scuttlebutt is that McLaurin wants a top of the market-level contract, with Washington management currently at a point that’s significantly less.
Comparables
Several receivers signed contracts this offseason, enough to figure out where McLaurin may fall in the statistical production hierarchy.
With all due respect to McLaurin and his fans, Davante Adams, the former Packer and current Raider, is not an appropriate comparable in terms of production. Adams has been elected to 5 Pro Bowls and has two First Team All-Pro selections. He’s averaged 84 receptions and 9 touchdowns per season, and has a career 66.1% catch percentage. He’s considered by most to be one of the top, if not the top, receiver in the NFL. All of his career numbers are better than those of McLaurin. He is more respected on the field, more productive, and has been a Pro Bowler his entire career.
Cooper Kupp also signed a new contract this offseason, but he’s also not an appropriate comparable. Kupp has played in 71 games in 5 seasons, with 57 targets. In total, he has 433 receptions in 598 targets, 5517 yards, 40 touchdowns, 12.7 yards per reception, and has a 72.4% catch percentage. He’s averaged 87 receptions and 8 touchdowns per year. Kupp just posted one of the most productive seasons in NFL history for a wide receiver, albeit in 17 games instead of the former 16 per season. In 2021, he had 145 receptions, 1947 yards, 13.4 yards per catch, 16 touchdowns, and a 75.9% catch percentage, and was selected to the Pro Bowl and named as a First Team All-Pro. McLaurin hasn’t come close to posting those kind of numbers.
Tyreek Hill, formerly with the Chiefs and now with Miami, a guy who allegedly punched his pregnant girlfriend in the stomach, is also an inappropriate comparable. He’s been selected to the Pro Bowl in each season of his 6 year career, and has 4 First Team All-Pro selections to his name. In his career, he’s had a total of 479 receptions in 708 targets, 6630 yards, 56 touchdowns, 13.8 yards per reception, and has a 67.7% catch percentage. McLaurin also isn’t in this ballpark, at least from a statistical perspective, although McLaurin is a team leader with none of the character concerns that burden Hill. However, the NFL has proven time and time again that they don’t care a single bit about character (hello, Deshaun Watson).
Stefon Diggs also signed a new contract with Buffalo this offseason, but he’s not a good comparable either. Diggs, who has two Pro Bowls and a 2020 First Team All-Pro selection on his resume, has played in 103 games, including 95 starts, in 7 seasons, and has a total of 595 receptions in 864 targets, 7383 yards, 12.4 yards per reception, 48 touchdowns, and a 68.9% catch percentage. Those numbers equate to an average of 85 receptions and 7 touchdowns per year. Diggs has been more productive than McLaurin over their respective careers, and Diggs has been in the NFL far longer.
A.J. Brown is a reasonable comparable to McLaurin. He spent the first three years of his career with Tennessee before being traded to the Eagles this offseason. He’s as played in a total of 43 games, with 36 starts, and has 185 receptions in 295 targets, 2995 yards, 24 touchdowns, 16.2 yards per reception, and has a 62.7% catch percentage. He’s averaged 62 receptions and 8 touchdowns per year. He was selected to the 2020 Pro Bowl. Last season, Brown played and started in 13 games, and had 63 receptions in 105 targets, 869 yards, 5 touchdowns, a 13.8 yards per reception, and 62.7% catch percentage.
Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore is another good comparable. Moore, a 2018 first round draft pick, has played in 63 games in 4 seasons, with 56 starts, and has 301 receptions in 498 targets, 4313 yards, 14.3 yards per reception, 14 touchdowns, and a 60.4% catch percentage. He has not been selected to a Pro Bowl or a First Team All-Pro, but averaged 75 receptions and 5 touchdowns per season.
Potential Contract
The three top of the market wide receiver contracts this offseason were Adams, Hill, and Kupp. Adams signed for 5 years, $140M, $28M average annual value, $22.75M in guarantees at signing, and a total of $65.67M becoming guaranteed by March, 2023. Hill’s contract was for 4 years and $120M, $30M average annual value, $52.535M guaranteed at signing, and a total of $72.M becoming guaranteed by March, 2023. Kupp’s new contract was for 3 years and $80.1M, $26.7M average annual value, $35M guaranteed at signing, and a total of $75M becoming guaranteed.
The two players more obviously comparable to McLaurin, who were Brown and Moore, signed for 4 years, $100MM, and 3 years, $61.884M, respectively. Brown’s contract comes with $25M in average annual value, $39.999M guaranteed at signing, and a total of $57.22M total guarantees. Moore’s contract has an average annual value of $20.628M and $41.6M guaranteed at signing.
What does this say about a potential McLaurin contract? Considering what McLaurin could potentially mean to the Washington franchise, the team ought to be shooting for a 5 year deal. McLaurin, on the other hand, assuming he wants to be in Washington at all, something that isn’t clear at the moment, will want life-changing money but also most likely desire to be back on the free agent market as soon as possible. Adams is one of only two wide receivers this offseason to sign a 5 year deal, with the Cowboys’ Michael Gallup being the other. Gallup has averaged only 48 receptions and 4 touchdowns per year, and is not Dallas’ #1 receiver. He is a lesser player than McLaurin and not a good comparable. Gallup signed for 5 years, $57.5M, and an $11.5M average annual value. McLaurin’s deal has to be a better than that.
Most likely, then, a deal between Washington and McLaurin, if it happens, will be either 3 or 4 years. Of those three players above McLaurin, Kupp had the lowest average annual value at $26.7M. So that’s the realistic ceiling. However, let’s conservatively split the difference between Brown and Moore and give McLaurin an average annual value of around $23M. That comes to a total of $69M for 3 years and $92M for 4 years for McLaurin.
The contracts of Brown and Moore guaranteed a total of 57% and 66% of each total contract value, respectively. Let’s split the difference and give McLaurin a total guarantee of 61.5%. That equates to $42.435M for 3 years and $56.58M for 4 years.
That puts us at 3 years, $69M, $42.435M guaranteed, or 4 years, $92M, $56.58M guaranteed. This could equate to a wide variety of annual cap hits, which I’ve analyzed for other potential contracts in the past. I could design a contract that has a pretty low cap hit for year one, with alot of money stacked at the end, or I could balance the cap hits evenly, or have cap hits that taper off later in the deal. Nobody knows what the parties would ultimately agree to, so I’ll decline that exercise in order to spare myself and you that level of brain damage. Brown’s year one cap hit, which is $8.51M in 2023, rises to $37.68M in 2026. Moore’s year one cap is $25.04M in 2023 and lowers to $20.925M in both 2024 and 2025. McLaurin’s potential cap hits could be anywhere within those parameters. The only thing that’s certain: $37M is a little much, but Washington can afford cap hits for McLaurin anywhere lower than that.
This is just a gut feeling, but my guess is that if McLaurin signs, he’ll go for the shorter term. Therefore, my educated guess for a contract compromise between Washington and McLaurin is 3 years, and around $69M and $42.435M guaranteed, with cap hits somewhere between $8.51M and $30M.
Options if it doesn’t work out
If Washington and McLaurin fail to reach a deal this offseason, then McLaurin will become a free agent at the start of the 2023 league year. Washington has the right to franchise tag him, which would result in a one year, fully guaranteed, top of the market contract. In 2022, the exclusive franchise tag value was $18.42M, and it will go up next year because of all of the large receiver contracts that were signed this season. That’s a big number for a guy who probably won’t remain in Washington if the franchise tag is placed on him. The team could do this for up to three years in a row, although it would become unreasonably expensive to do so. Washington has the obvious recent histories of Cousins and Scherff as examples. Cousins wanted an unreasonable contract, and Scherff didn’t appear to want to remain in Washington. It’s more likely than not that, if McLaurin doesn’t sign, that the reasons are either one of those two or perhaps a combination of both. Having the team’s best and most prominent player hanging around the franchise for one or more years, again, isn’t in the franchise’s best interest. Therefore, if the parties can’t reach an agreement this offseason, my advice would be to cut bait as soon as possible and move on; in other words, trade him before the season starts.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section.