Hot Topics Fantasy Football: Dynasty Football

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July 19, 2022

By David Earl

Rookie Draft Focus

To no surprise, running back Breece Hall is a PPR league consensus top 5 ranking, near the top on every board, along with wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Drake London, and running back Kenneth Walker shuffled among the top 5, depending on the site. Of the 3 focused sites, Fantasy Pros dropped wide receiver Jameson Williams out of the top 5 in favor of wide receiver Treylon Burks. It’s intriguing, as Jameson Williams comes into the NFL as a more polished route runner, one of the best hands in the draft class, and a pedigree coming from Alabama. Still, with Williams’ ACL injury and the remarkable comparison Burks made to A.J. Brown going into the draft it is reasonable to take the upside over what seems like a can’t miss in Williams.

With that out of the way, let’s look at some typical rookie sleepers among the fantasy community. Picking off the top-ranked players is always a hit or miss proposition, of course, but it’s the mid-second-round picks and on in the rookie drafts that build a dominant dynasty team. So here are some to keep in mind:

  • Justyn Ross (WR): Undrafted free agent signed by Kansas City who has concerns around his previous spinal injury.  He would not even drafted in a typical 5-round rookie dynasty draft. While any pick is a crap shoot, but rounds 4-5 are practically blind dart throws like this year so at some point mid-third-round and on Ross could be a gem to be had, especially with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback.
  • Jashaun Corbin (RB): He’s nother undrafted free agent who’s been raising some eyebrows in the fantasy community. With Saquon Barkley‘s health somewhat a concern and even possible long-term plans for the Giants a bit shaky, Corbin is that kind of dark horse sleeper who can come out of nowhere. He’s a possible 5th round rookie-only draft target or priority free agent pickup, especially considering the potential backup running backs in front of him.
  • Jelani Woods (TE): Averaging around the late 3rd round in rookie-only drafts, Woods profiles as an athletic tight end with strong hands.  He’s compared to Jordan Thomas from years ago. While he has some time to fill out and groom into a starter, he’s a good stash, at minimum, on dynasty rosters, especially TE premium leagues.
  • Snoop Conner (RB): More of a between-the-tackles thumper, Snoop could quickly find a niche, especially if James Robinson takes longer than expected to recover from Achilles injury. As Travis Entienne is more of a receiving back and Doug Peterson typically using a running back by committee, Conner should see plenty of chances in goal line carries. Think of Jordan Howard for the Bears and the role he played for the Eagles a few years ago.
  • Tyler Allgeier: While Cordarrelle Patterson is Atlanta’s primary threat listed at running back, his role does expand to all 3 of the wide receiver positions. In comes the 5th round pick Tyler Allgeier, who could very well see a real opportunity as the top backup on the roster to Patterson. While he may not be a true asset on passing downs right now, he could thrive with Patterson and Drake London stretching the field, particularly with a mobile quarterback in Marcus Martiota under center.
  • Jalen Tolbert (WR): I include Jalen not necessarily as a sleeper as many know of him.  He’s a guy who should be considered as a back end of the first-round rookie-only draft. Being on Dallas behind CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, Tolbert could be that stash for a league champion and a roster already loaded with talent. Don’t be surprised if he makes a late-season impact this year.  Many fantasy sites seem to believe that he’s a perfect compliment to Lamb which many fantasy sites seem to believe. Thus an overdraft today could result in a bargain in a few years, especially for potential trade value.

Startup Dynasty Draft Overvalued and Undervalued

Every year, we always see a handful of players get drafted way too early and/or noticed how they slipped down the draft this far. Here is a list of players  fall who into this category heading into your draft.

The Overvalued

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): Finishing the year strong and winning many owners championships last season, there is certainly a strong fanfare for St. Brown, deservedly so. Not to say he is not a talented receiver but being drafted too early would be a mistake, when D’Andre Swift is fully healthy; plus, having T.J. Hockenson and the return of Quintez Cephus will certainly eat into his production. Also, considering the assets spent on Jameson Williams (WR) in the draft by Detroit, he clearly is not the long-term direction for WR1 they have in mind.
  • Tyreek Hill: Tyreek Hill is overvalued, but not because of talent as he leaves a great young quarterback operating a pass-happy offense. He now joins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has been inconsistent at best thus far, who not only established good chemistry with another top young talent in Jaylen Waddle but executes a run-heavy offense. It’s not to say he won’t be a WR1 but the previous top 5 season type production is very much in jeopardy. Think more with logic than emotion before drafting Hill.
  • James Conner (RB): The departure of Chase Edmonds and the new three-year contract James Conner signed, has elevated him far too high on many boards. The combination of his inability to stay healthy and a passing game where Kyler Murray is not much of a check-down player. Wasn’t until Murray was out weeks 9-11 that Conner’s production rose substantially in the passing game. Conner seems more of a touchdown-reliant player while the addition of Keaontay Ingram could eat away at his targets too.

The Undervalued

  • Isaiah Spiller (RB): Spiller’s ranking as a RB4/RB5 will potentially feed an already deep team a late-round steal. He is in line as Austin Ekeler‘s direct backup and, in a pass-heavy high scoring offense, could offer some decent value in year one. He is not only a handcuff to Ekeler but a roster stash in all dynasty formats as a PPR running back.
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR): Jerry has not exactly been what most hoped he’d become right now but consider the quarterback play in Denver. As Courtland Sutton is primed as there #1 option at wide receiver, Jerry comes into the 2022 season as an excellent route runner who fits the Devante Adams role in Hackett’s offense the best. He’s currently going WR2-3 right now, which is ridiculous value for him at that spot.
  • Allen Robinson (WR): Coming off his worst season last year, Allen Robinson is coming off the board as WR39 and being a WR2 in the Rams’ offense is not a demotion.  With two years beside Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods still got 90 receptions off of 130+ targets so Robinson as the Rams’ WR2 can be a better option than many teams’ WR1.

 

All information was compiled from the following sites:

  1. Fantasy Pros
  2. Dynasty Nerds
  3. Yards Per Fantasy
  4. Retro Heat
  5. The Draft Network
  6. Football Guys