Brian Robinson Jr. and the Commanders Interior Offensive Line

August 4, 2022

by David Earl

Ron Rivera Mentions Carolina Backfield

Early this offseason when asked about rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr.’s role with the Commanders offense, Ron Rivera quickly mentioned the Carolina tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. 2009 was that tandem’s best year for the Panthers, which was obviously multiple years prior to Ron’s arrival in Carolina. While John Fox’s team ended that season 8-8, they were among the top running teams in the NFL. The Panthers were ranked 3rd in total rushing yards (2,498), 2nd in yards per carry (4.8), and 4 TDs behind the league-leading Miami Dolphins’ 22 rushing TDs. While, unfortunately for Fox, the quarterback, Jake Delhomme, had a terrible year, that running attack is a recipe for success in most seasons. Now, here in Washington, it’s Ron’s critical 3rd season and Scott Turner needs to acclimate an at-times volatile quarterback in Carson Wentz, so the emphasis on the running game will be vital. As it remains to be seen whether Antonio Gibson can step forward as a productive 175+ carry running back. Brian Robinson Jr. already carries that pedigree. I know Gibson had 200+ carries for over 1,000 yards but his 4.0 yards per carry average and ball security issues left something to be desired. While his ceiling as a pass catcher is high, his ability as a natural runner like Brian has a long way to go. That said, where could Brian Robinson Jr. fit into this role in a duel backfield threat like Carolina in 2009?

Brian Robinson Jr.

When finally afforded the opportunity to be the lead running back in Alabama, Brian Robinson Jr. performed very well, rushing for 1,343 yards in 271 attempts, for an average of 5.0 yards per carry average. Unlike Derrick Henry, who was the same powerhouse running in the second half of games for Alabama as he was in the first half, Robinson’s yards per attempt did drop nearly a full yard, from 5.30 to 4.54, which could be concerning. Whether that speaks to his conditioning or simply being his first true year as Alabama’s starter, at the very minimum it proves Brian can be a very effective piece in a committee approach. Below is a complete breakdown of Robinson’s situational stats for Alabama in the 2021 season, courtesy of cfbstats.com:

A couple of numbers that stand out here are his first down yards per attempt (5.13) and his overall second-quarter yards per attempt (5.55), which I believe works into Scott Turner‘s scheme. Washington will need to establish the run early so as to work off play action and misdirection in order to open up the offense heading into halftime. In a perfect scenario, Brian’s effectiveness in the second quarter will ultimately help preserve a potential lead inside of 2 minutes. What’s interesting, though, is his pedestrian yards per carry average (3.74) with just under a 2 touchdown lead compared to a much closer game (5.58) as it almost appears he relaxes a bit too much when the game is not on the line. That’s a dangerous characteristic to take into the NFL, as momentum is not only so important but easily changed. Another number to watch this year is his 3.04 yards per carry average in the red zone – moving and controlling the ball between the 20s is great but potentially becoming one-dimensional inside the red zone makes the difference between scoring a touchdown or attempting a field goal. If Brian doesn’t improve on that quickly, he could find himself spending more time on the sideline than he’d prefer.

Looking at his scouting report, Robinson can be an indecisive runner with an upright style but his power and yards after contact make him an imposing figure. His build is tailored for a heavy workload but certainly has deceptive elusiveness when taking a run outside the tackles. Robinson also is a capable receiver from the backfield, mainly on swing passes or a check-down when needed. In closing with Robinson, the tools are there for him to be a good two-down starter in the NFL. Playing a similar role to DeAngelo Williams in Carolina is certainly well within his capability. If he does play up to the level of his capabilities, along with the presence of J.D. McKissic, the player who could see his role threatened is Antonio Gibson if he doesn’t take the next step forward.

Interior Offensive Line

According to Football Outsiders, as a unit, Washington’s offensive line was ranked 3rd in power run success and 6th in run blocking stuff rate (15%) last year. In the run game, Washington was very strong on the attack, with the run game typically always picking up positive yards, and winning the majority of the short yardage scenarios. The interior of the line carried a ton of weight here for this success, as Brandon Scherff (when healthy) and Ereck Flowers were more than efficient in the run game. Now, they have departed with Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell seemingly replacing them.  This cannot be considered an upgrade but just how much of a downgrade is this transition? They both have proven to be durable and capable players at guard, with each achieving various levels of good success. While Scherff and Flowers have youth on their side they both brought issues that were unresolvable (assuming anyway) by this staff to retain them both.  There’s no doubt that Brandon Scherff is a top guard when healthy, but that’s just when he was healthy – his last full season was 2016. Ereck Flowers‘s inconsistent play on passing downs appears too much of a risk with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Whether this move works out for Ron Rivera this season is a question that remains to be answered but the performance of Wes Schweitzer last season showed that he can bea potentially valuable piece provided the team does not rely on him to fill in at center. With Chase Roullier appearing on track for week 1 it’s conceivable to think Wes will emerge as one of the 2 starting guards by week 1. As it may seem Ron has the running back room set up the preferred way, this interior line change will most certainly provide the ultimate key to the running game’s success, thus in turn affecting the play calling of Scott Turner. As the new addition of Wentz, Terry McLaurin‘s contract extension, and the drafting of Jahan Dotson and Robinson Jr., are all great pieces here, but the interior offensive line is going to dictate their ultimate success.

**Ranking from Pro Football Focus