Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Wentz Out, Heinicke In; Your Reactions

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October 18, 2022

by David Earl

Carson Wentz To Miss Time

Carson Wentz is in jeopardy of missing significant time after a pass attempt late in the second half that resulted in a fractured finger. As he looks for a second opinion this week, some have projected that he’ll be absent up to 6 weeks . This injury could put an end to his time in Washington for what has been a season of both high and low roads for Wentz, who led all quarterbacks in hits and sacks thus far. While that may seem extreme, let’s look at this team and what this could mean for the rest of this season. First and foremost, take the play immediately afterward, not how his pass sailed over J.D. McKissic as the injured hand surely played a part,  but his decision on this read progression. Terry McLaurin ran a crossing route from left to right and McKissic ran a delayed hook route, and Terry was the clear option on this play. Instead, he threw the hook route to McKissic. This decision was not terrible as a good throw would have netted a positive play but McLaurin coming free across the middle potentially could have gained a much bigger play. Whether it’s because of the constant duress Carson has been under all year that caused him to not notice McLaurin or just simply a poor decision and read, this has been the inconsistency of Wentz all season. The arm talent was never the issue with him but it’s the poor mechanics and decision-making when he’s continuously under duress in the pocket that we all have talked enough about to this day.

With the apparently forecasted time missed, this conversation now leans toward Taylor Heinicke. Taylor has been the polar opposite of Carson Wentz – he lacks Carson’s arm strength and size, but makes that up with mobility and improved decision-making. Last season Taylor showed a knack for maneuvering in and out of the pocket, extended plays effectively with his legs, and was very consistent on intermediate throws. In fact, you could argue that Taylor Heinicke is the best fit for Terry McLaurin as he thrives on routes under 10 yards, especially with his yards after the catch. Taylor’s familiarity with Scott Turner‘s offense combined with a much better group of skill position players from last season should only bode well for the immediate future. The deficiencies along the offensive line, in particular pass protection, exist may play into his game somewhat too because of his presence in the pocket and mobility. The one unfortunate drawback in his game though is that at times his decisions come from hisoverconfidence in his arm strength. From his inability to throw an accurate deep ball to his attempt to make a tight window throw that his arm just can’t make very often, some of his decisions lead to back-breaking turnovers or missed opportunities. He sometimes fails to keep a drive alive by simply taking a check down. The conversation of Washington being better with Taylor than Carson is just a combination of frustrations over how poor the offense has been under Wentz and Heinicke’s underdog story many still believe in today. In all honesty, defenses have the tape on Taylor and how to defend him, which was very prevalent late last season.  Teams took away the intermediate routes and baited him to go downfield.

The one difference this year is if Scott can get the running game going with Brian Robinson Jr., it could leads to more RPO designs which would in turn helps open up more pass plays in the intermediate zones. Unfortunately, Scott Turner seems to want more of a downfield passing game that exposes the offensive line deficiencies and does not play to Taylor’s strengths. Is there a path to better team success under Taylor Heinicke? Yes, there is, but do we all have the confidence in Scott Turner to change his philosophy? So back to the point of this potentially being Carson Wentz’s end here in Washington as that will be tied to Taylor Heinicke over these several weeks. If Taylor gets this team rolling and Washington has a winning record heading towards a possible playoff path then you’d have to think he will remains the starter down the stretch. In that event, how could Ron go back to Wentz after any potential success by Taylor? IF Heinicke is completely ineffective and Washington continues to lose during Wentz’s absence clearly resulting in a lost season, Ron will most likely turn to Sam Howell the rest of the way. If Howell is absolutely lost and doesn’t look like “the guy”, then Washington is in a position to draft a quarterback, thus leaving Wentz once again potentially outside looking in . The only way for Wentz’s path back to the starting role is for Heinicke to barely keep the team afloat, as a backup should, and Wentz is ready to return and the playoffs are still in sight. If nothing else, these next few weeks will be intriguing as we all can start beginning the possible direction of this team going forward. If the fans have their way Sam Howell starts next week vs. Green Bay, but I disagree as I personally do not want to rush this young quarterback into a situation behind a horrible offensive line, which could ruin his development.

 

The 70% Stipulation

One key issue going forward is that if Carson Wentz plays 70% of the offensive snaps then Washington’s 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL draft becomes a 2nd round pick. So for the long-winded outlook I spoke to earlier going forward for this team, this conditional 3rd round pick factor has to play a factor. The estimated 6-week timeline essentially plays into this perfectly as that would result in Wentz falling short of this 70% threshold. While this season moves on the current standing each week should weigh heavily in the team’s decision whether to bring Wentz back or it would be gross mismanagement of this team’s assets. This will also play into Wentz’s future in Washington – if Sam Howell does not show signs of being a franchise quarterback and Washington ends up with a top 5 pick how do you justify not drafting a round 1 quarterback? Between this 70% stipulation and how this team appears to be trending right now, even I (the Carson Wentz truther) realize that his time most likely is over in Washington. For Wentz’s sake, Taylor needs to play just well enough to keep this team in the playoff race so when he’s ready to return there is no question about the identity of the starter. Then, if he can finish strong and get Washington in the playoffs, the future for Wentz in Washington seems a little more likely.