Is Sam Howell QB1 for the Commanders???

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January 19, 2023

by David Earl

Initial Report: Sam Howell Competing for QB1

Recent reports have been speculative but consistent in suggesting that Sam Howell is in consideration to get Washington’s starting quarterbacks job entering the offseason. So much so that reports like this apparently have Ron Rivera making it clear to potential offensive coordinators that Sam Howell is the starting quarterback entering this offseason. John Keim offers a clearer and more realistic view, which is, “But he still has to secure the job. Other options will be discussed as well. In other words: a long way to go but he’s starting from a good place.” For the purpose of this discussion we can look at Sam Howell as the starting quarterback for Washington, but let’s start from the start of his college career.  At North Carolina, he was once considered a top overall draft pick but ended up falling into the 5th round of the 2022 draft.

College Tale of Two Seasons

This once-forecasted top 5 pick in the NFL draft certainly had a drop-off in production from the 2020 to the 2021 seasons. Sam Howell’s completion percentage dropped 5.6% while his interception percentage rose a half percent from 2% to 2.5%, which is not a drastic change. The point here is the numbers showed a disparity that was enough for scouts to drop him on their boards, subsequently resulting in him dropping into the 5th round. Why did this happen? Let’s look into some of these reasons:

        Talent Lost:
  • Dyami Brown (WR) was an explosive player who averaged 19.98 yards per catch while amassing 1,099 yards receiving. Currently on Washington’s roster.
  • Dazz Newsome (WR) was a strong possessing WR averaging over 12 yards per catch and is currently on an NFL roster (San Francisco).
  • Michael Carter (RB) led the running backs with 8 yards per carry and 1,277 rushing yards plus 25 receptions. Currently on the New York Jets.
  • Javonte Williams (RB) complimented Carter with 7.3 yards per carry while also rushing for over 1,000 yards (1,158) plus 25 receptions as well. He currently plays for the Denver Broncos.

In the 2020 season, Sam Howell led an explosive offense with a roster filled with NFL talent at the skill position players. The run game kept the defenses honest and guessing while Dyami Brown provided a deep threat most teams did not have in college football. Outside of standout wide receiver Josh Downs, who had 101 receptions in 2021, the North Carolina Tar Heels simply did not have the impact of NFL-caliber players on their roster. Their leading rusher, Ty Chandler, averaged 1 yard per carry average less than his processors and didn’t reach 1,100 yards rushing. He has had minimal effect on the Vikings’ roster on offense thus far. As a result of the lack of talent compared to the 2020 roster, Sam Howell rushed for 446 more yards (828 yards rushing) in the 2021 season while leading an offense that was far less explosive. Now this is not to say he is clear of any fault as it indicate that he wasn’t an elite franchise quarterback, but Sam Howell may be a quarterback this team can build around and win with going forward.

Sam’s Scouting Report (nfl.com)

  • Confidence despite inconsistencies: The one comparison we’ve heard in terms of moxie and leadership is to Taylor Heinicke but with a stronger arm. While the sample size in the NFL is not enough, the back-to-back season comparison helps speak to this point. The 2020 season was near perfect for Howell because the talent was around him, but when the team needed Sam to step up it was a mixed season. After opening the 2020 season against Virginia Tech by throwing 3 interceptions, a 53% completion, and 1 touchdown, Howell followed in the next two weeks by completing around 70% of his passes and 8 touchdowns. With the exception of week 8 against Notre Dame, Sam went through the season with a completion percentage as low as 53% and never getting closer to 70% then week 10 at 66%.
  • Attacks the field working from deep to short: The one aspect of Heinicke, mainly due to his lack of arm strength, that made defenses adjust easier to him was how he was most effective in the intermediate passing zones between the hash marks. Howell, on the other hand, has a similar arm strength to Carson Wentz outside the hash marks and especially the deep throws. That’s the aspect of this offense Ron felt he fixed with Carson but potentially has now in Howell, such as this throw to Terry McLaurin against Dallas.
  • Pocket poise and mobility: Howell wasn’t perfect against Dallas but he showed competent pocket awareness in this small sample against a tough Cowboys pass rush. This is an ability Wentz lacks, but Howell has the ability and athleticism to make a play with his feet while climbing the pocket well.
  • Looks for explosive throws outside the pocket: Even when flushed from the pocket Sam keeps his eyes downfield but, while looking for that explosive play, will take some back sacks at times much like Carson Wentz.
  • Timing or ball placement: The one crucial part of Sam Howell’s game – which probably led to his inconsistent 2021 season – is the lack of consistency in ball placement. He does not always throw with great anticipation, which is necessary for the NFL, which makes his wide receivers work a bit hard. Now the silver lining here is when you compare his 2020 and 2021 seasons. As inconsistent as his 2021 season was, the prior year’s team showed Sam is not a terrible liability here as well when the right pieces are around him. Once again, the Dallas game is a small sample but we all saw how effective enough his placement is when the talent is there in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.

Conclusion

While I will leave the film study to Mark Bullock but there is a way to build this team around Sam Howell and it starts with the offensive line. Nearly any metric you look at the Washington offensive line is bottom third and that cannot be the case for this young quarterback. The skill position players could use a legitimate pass-catching tight end but all in all the unit itself is more than serviceable. So, my perspective here is either to re-sign Heinicke to a reasonable deal or sign a veteran like Teddy Bridgewater to not only back up Sam but apply pressure/competition during the offseason. Get this roster right, especially the offensive line and overall depth, while bringing in an offensive coordinator that will dictate the pass with the run while utilizing Howell’s athleticism. Allow Sam Howell the opportunity to start and if this formula fails then at least the line (hopefully) will be upgraded and ready for a high-profile rookie quarterback from the 2024 draft. But is Ron Rivera truly willing to take this road in essentially a make-it-or-break-it season? Speaking for the benefit of the team, the Sam Howell path seems like one of the better options in actually grooming a young drafted rookie quarterback and not trading or signing a high price veteran again. We all know firsthand how well this works out for Washington over the recent decades in going after that veteran quarterback that no other team wanted. Call a Denver Broncos fan and ask how well they are doing today.