2023 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Preview

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January 20, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Last week, the AFC Wild Card games went exactly by seedings, with the 5, 6, and 7 teams sent home.  That, of course, has led to two quality matchups between 4 outstanding quarterbacks and should make for a classic weekend of games.  On the NFC side, it’s the NFC East show, something that is sure to be a difficult pill to swallow for Washington fans.  It seems unlikely that two NFC East teams will end up in next week’s conference championship, but you never know.  That particular nightmare scenario is officially on the table.  Our Divisional Round playoff preview is below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (14 – 3; 1st, AFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Buffalo Bills (13 – 3; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (12 – 4; 1st, AFC North)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9 – 8; 1st, AFC South)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC West)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC North)
  7. Miami Dolphins (9 – 8; 2nd, AFC East)

NFC

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (14 – 3; 1st, NFC East; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. San Francisco 49ers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC West)
  3. Minnesota Vikings (13 – 4; 1st, NFC North)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 – 9; 1st, NFC South)
  5. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC East)
  6. New York Giants (9 – 7 – 1 ; 3rd, NFC East)
  7. Seattle Seahawks (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC West)

2023 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 21

4:30 p.m. ET – Jacksonville Jaguars (#4) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1) (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

8:15 p.m. ET – New York Giants (#6) at Philadelphia Eagles (#1) (FOX, FOX Deportes)

Sunday, Jan. 22

3:00 p.m. ET – Cincinnati Bengals (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#2) (CBS, Paramount+)

6:30 p.m. ET – Dallas Cowboys (#5) at San Francisco 49ers (#2) (FOX, FOX Deportes)

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 29

3:00 p.m. ET – NFC (FOX, FOX Deportes)

6:30 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS, Paramount+)

Super Bowl 57

Sunday, Feb. 12

6:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona (Fox, FoxSports.com, fuboTV)

Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched travesty of music, again, when it could be Metallica  Rihanna

Game Previews

Jacksonville Jaguars (#4) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1)

Early line: Chiefs, -8.5

The Chiefs scored 496 points and gained 7032 yards this season, which are both the best in the NFL.  They had 5062 passing yards, which is also #1 in the NFL.  Their rushing game is also effective, but not to the same extent as their passing game, with 1970 yards (ranked 20th) at an average of 4.7 yards per carry (ranked 11th).  They scored 27 or more points in 11 games this season.  2x First Team All-Pro and 5x Pro Bowl quarterback Patrick Mahomes had another outstanding season, with 435 completions in 648 attempts for a 67.1% completion percentage, 5250 yards, 41 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 105.2.  4x First Team All-Pro and 8x Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce was the leading receiver with 110 receptions for 1338 yards and 12 touchdowns.  JuJu Smith-Schuster had 78 receptions for 933 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Isiah Pacheco was team’s leading rusher with 170 carries for 830 yards, for an average of 4.9 yards per carry and 5 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Chiefs have given up 369 points, which is ranked 16th, 5579 total yards, ranked 12th, 3756 passing yards (ranked 19th), and 1823 rushing yards (ranked 8th) at 4.4 yards per attempt (ranked 18th).  Defensive tackle Chris Jones is the star of the front 7, with 15.5 sacks this season.

The Jaguars scored 404 points this year, which is ranked 10th, and gained 6075 yards, ranked 9th.  They were ranked 10th in passing yardage and tied for 11th in rushing yards per attempt, and 4.7 yards per carry.  The 2021 #1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, completed 584 passes in 17 games, 66.3% completion percentage, 4113 yards, 25 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 95.2 quarterback rating.  The lead running back, Travis Etienne, had 1125 yards on 220 carries for an average of 5.1 yards per attempt.  Christian Kirk was the leading receiver, with 84 receptions for 1108 yards.  Defensively, Jacksonville surrendered 350 points, ranked 12th, and gave up 6006 yards, which was ranked 24th.  They gave up 3406 passing yards (7th) and 4.2 yards per carry (8th).  Last week, in their Wild Card matchup against the Chargers, the Jaguars came back from a halftime deficit of 27 – 7 to win via a field goal with no time left on the clock.  Trevor Lawrence threw 4 touchdowns, but also 4 interceptions in that game.  A repeat performance will give Jacksonville very little chance to win against Kansas City.

The Chiefs defeated the Jaguars in Kansas City in week 10 by a score of 27 – 17.

Steve’s prediction: Kansas City wins, 32 – 24.  Jacksonville will put up a fight and play a decent game, but at the end of the day, an inexperienced playoff team won’t be able to overcome the NFL’s most potent offense.

New York Giants (#6) at Philadelphia Eagles (#1)

Early line: Eagles, -7.5

The Eagles scored 477 points this past season, which is second in the NFL, and gained 6614 total yards (also ranked 2nd), 4105 passing yards (ranked 9th), 2509 rushing yards (ranked 5th) at 4.6 yards per carry (ranked 14th).  The quarterback, Pro Bowler Jalen Hurts, played 15 games this year, missing weeks 16 and 17 due to a shoulder injury, and had 306 completions in 460 attempts, for 3701 yards, a 66.5% completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 101.5 quarterback rating.  In addition, he had 760 rushing yards in 165 carries, 4.6 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns.  Running back Miles Sanders is the leading rusher, with 1269 yards in 259 carries for an average of 4.9 yards per carry, and 11 touchdowns.  Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Brown was the leading receiver with 88 receptions for 1496 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Wide receiver DeVonta Smith had 95 receptions for 1196 yards and 7 touchdowns.

The Giants have scored 365 points (ranked 15th), and gained 5676 total yards (ranked 18th), 3157 passing yards (ranked 26th), and 2519 rushing yards (ranked 4th) at an average of 4.8 yards per carry, which is ranked 7th.  Quarterback Daniel Jones passed for 3205 yards, a 67.2% completion percentage, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a 92.5 quarterback rating.  Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 1312 yards at 4.4 yards per carry.  Darius Slayton was the Giants’ leading receiver with 724 yards.  Defensively, the Giants gave up 371 points (ranked 17th), 6089 total yards (ranked 25th), 3638 passing yards (ranked 15th), and 2451 rushing yards (ranked 27th) for an average of 5.2 yards per carry, which is 31st in the NFL.  Last week in their Wild Card game, the Giants defeated the Vikings 31 – 24.

The Eagles defeated the Giants in New York in week 14 by a score of 48 – 22.  The Eagles also won their second matchup in Philadelphia in week 18 by a score of 22 – 16.

Steve’s prediction:  Eagles win 24 – 20.  I’d love to pick the Giants here, as they seem to be the easily likable, playoff Cinderella team of 2023, but at the end of the day, the Eagles are too good, and they don’t do well enough against the run to stop Jalen Hurts.

Cincinnati Bengals (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#2)

Early line: Bills, -4.5

Buffalo’s offense scored 455 points this season, ranked 4th in the NFL, and gained a total of 6361 yards, also 4th.  They had 4129 passing yards (8th) in a total of 574 attempts (ranked 14th), and 2232 rushing yards on (9th) at an average of 5.2 yards per attempt (3rd) on 430 attempts (20th).  Their quarterback, Pro Bowler Josh Allen, completed 359 pass attempts for 4283 yards, a 63.3% completion percentage, 35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 96.6 quarterback rating.  Devin Singletary was the leading rusher, with 819 yards in 177 attempts, for an average of 4.6 yards per attempt, but Allen also had 762 rushing yards on 124 yards, for an average of 6.1 yards per carry.  James Cook averaged 5.7 yards per carry.  Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs had 108 receptions for 1429 yards.  On defense, the Bills surrendered just 286 points (ranked 2nd), 5106 total yards (#1 in the league), 3433 passing yards (ranked 9th), as well as 1673 rushing yards (ranked 4th) at an average of 4.3 yards per carry (ranked 14th).  Buffalo defeated the Dolphins by a score of 34 – 31.

Cincinnati scored 418 points (ranked 8th), and gained 5768 total yards, 4240 passing yards (ranked 7th), and 1528 rushing yards (ranked 29th) at an average of 3.8 yards per carry, which is ranked 30th.  Quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 4475 yards, with a 68.3% completion percentage, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 100.8 quarterback rating.  The Bengals’ leading rusher was Joe Mixon, with 814 yards at an average of 3.9 yards per carry.  Tee Higgins was the leading receiver with 1029 yards on 74 carries.  Defensively, the Bengals gave up 322 points (ranked 5th), 5371 total yards (ranked 7th), 3665 passing yards (ranked 16th), and 1706 rushing yards (ranked 5th) for an average of 4.2 yards per carry (ranked 10th).  Cincinnati defeated the Ravens by a score of 24 – 17 in Wild Card weekend, with the winning score coming courtesy of a 98 yard fumble return for a touchdown by defensive lineman Sam Hubbard, which was the longest in postseason history.

Buffalo faced Cincinnati in Cincinnati in week 17, but the game was suspended in the first quarter and then later cancelled as a result of the life-threatening cardiac event suffered on the field by Bills safety Damar Hamlin.

Steve’s prediction:  Buffalo is a team of destiny, and it will be a fairly emotional day to face the Bengals again after the Damar Hamlin scare.  The Bills will take care of business and send Cincinnati home by a score of 32 – 20.

Dallas Cowboys (#5) at San Francisco 49ers (#2)

Early line: 49ers, -3.5

San Francisco’s offense scored 450 points this season, which is ranked 6th.  In the passing game, the 49ers as a team had a 66% completion percentage, which is ranked 11th.  Rookie sensation Brock Purdy went 114 for 170 for 1374 yards and a 67.1% completion percentage, and threw 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 5 starts, and a quarterback rating of 107.3.  Receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle are the primary receiving threats, with 78 receptions for 1015 yards and 60 receptions for 765 yards this season, respectively.   Christian McCaffrey is the leader of the ground game, with 746 yards in 159 carries, for 4.7 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns, and also had 52 receptions for 464 yards.  Defensively, San Francisco is probably the best in the league, with only 277 points surrendered, which is ranked 1st, and 5110 yards surrendered, which is ranked 2nd.  They are also #1 against the run, with opponents gaining just 3.4 yards per carry.  They are not quite as strong against the pass, albeit still very good, with 3789 yards surrendered, which is ranked 21st.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a quarterback rating of 82.7, which is 5th in the NFL.  All Pro defensive end Nick Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks.

This season, Dallas scored 467 points (ranked 3rd), and gained 6034 total yards (ranked 10th), 3736 passing yards (ranked 14th), and 2298 rushing yards (ranked 8th) at 4.3 yards per carry (ranked 23rd).  Quarterback Dak Prescott had 2860 passing yards in 12 games, a 66.2% completion percentage, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a 91.1 quarterback rating.  Pro Bowler Tony Pollard was the leading rusher with 1007 yards at an average of 5.2 yards per carry.  Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb had 107 receptions for 1359 yards.  On defense, Dallas surrendered 342 yards (ranked 6th), 5613 total yards (ranked 13th), 3415 passing yards (ranked 8th), and 2198 rushing yards (ranked 22nd) at 4.4 yards per carry (ranked 18th).  Dallas blew out Tampa Bay in the Wild Card game by a score of 31 – 14.

The Cowboys and the 49ers did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction: San Francisco wins 30-24.  The Cowboys are a good team and, given the right circumstances, could win this game.  However, the 49ers defense is too good and will win the day.