2023 Road to the Draft – Part 2
January 24, 2023
By Noonefromtampa
We are still waiting to hear on who submitted bids for the Commanders and what state the sale process is in. According to various published sources, the bids were in the $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion range, well below the $7 billion threshold that Dan Snyder is allegedly seeking. The front office and coaching staff are proceeding with the offseason unaffected by the swirl of uncertainty following the team. The biggest issue, beside the sale of the team, is that, per NFL rules, any guaranteed money from player signings must be placed in escrow. The question is whether Dan Snyder wants to tie up millions of dollars in player signings during the sale process. He would obviously recoup this money during the sale, but this is one last opportunity to screw over the Washington fanbase.
Offseason Schedule
Feb. 2 – East-West Shrine Bowl (Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas)
Feb. 4 – Senior Bowl (Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala.)
Feb. 13 – Waiver system begins for 2023. Players with at least four previous pension-credited seasons whom a club desires to terminate are not subject to the waiver system until after the trading deadline.
Feb. 21 – Beginning this date through 4:00 p.m., New York time on March 7 clubs may designate Franchise or Transition Players.
Feb. 28-March 6 – NFL Scouting Combine (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
March 7 – Deadline for clubs to designate franchise or transition players.
March 7 – College Pro Days begin. Workouts of a school’s Pro Day-eligible players with players outside of the scheduled Pro Day activities are prohibited. Private dinners, meetings, interviews are permitted.
March 7 – Beginning of when teams are permitted to host 30 draft-eligible, non-local players for facility visits, until April 19. Also beginning March 7, teams are allowed to being video or telephone interview with draft-eligible players through March April 26.
March 13-15 – Clubs are permitted to contact and enter contract negotiations with the certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents upon the expiration of their 2022 player contracts at 4 p.m. ET on March 15.
March 15 (prior to 4 p.m. ET) – Clubs must submit qualifying offers to restricted free agents. If a qualifying offer is not extended, those players will become unrestricted free agents at the start of the new league year. The top 51 rule goes into effect and all clubs must be under the 2023 salary cap.
March 15 (4 p.m. ET) – The 2023 league year and free agency period begin. All player contracts expire at this time, and the trading period for 2023 begins. Clubs can also begin signing free agents. Clubs may designate up to two Player Contracts that, if terminated on or prior to June 1, 2023, and if not renegotiated after January 9, 2023, shall be treated as if terminated on June 2, subject to the further requirements of CBA.
March 26-29 – Annual League Meeting (Phoenix)
April 3 – Clubs that hired a new Head Coach after the end of the 2022 regular season may begin offseason workout programs.
April 17 – Clubs with returning head coaches may begin offseason workout programs.
April 19 – Deadline for clubs to time, test, visit, interview, or conduct a physical examination with a draft-eligible player at its club facility.
April 21 – Deadline for Restricted Free Agents to sign offer sheets.
April 26 – Deadline for Prior Club to exercise Right of First Refusal to Restricted Free Agents.
April 27 – Deadline for clubs to time, test, visit, interview (including video and phone calls), or conduct a physical examination with a draft-eligible player at any location.
April 27-29 – 2023 NFL Draft (Kansas City, Missouri)
May 1 – Deadline for Prior Club to send “May 1 Tender” to its unsigned Unrestricted Free Agents. If the player has not signed a Player Contract with a Club by July 22 or the first scheduled day of the first NFL training camp, whichever is later, he may negotiate or sign a Player Contract from that date until the Tuesday following the 10th weekend of the regular season, at 4:00 p.m., New York time, only with his Prior Club.
Deadline for Clubs to exercise Fifth-Year Option for players selected in the first round of the 2020 Draft.
May 5-8 or May 12-15 – Clubs may elect to hold their one three-day post-Draft rookie minicamp from Friday through Sunday or Saturday through Monday on one of the two weekends following the Draft.
May 15 – Rookie Football Development Programs begin.
May 22-24 – Spring League Meeting, location to be announced.
Commanders Next Steps
The first step the Commanders will have to do is figure out which players to release to increase the available cap space (see Steve’s cap page for current detail). Right now, the Commanders have between 6 and 7 million dollars in cap space.
The most obvious candidate for release is Carson Wentz who saves $26.1 million with no dead cap. Two big name potential release candidates are Charles Leno and Kendall Fuller both would save around $8 million net. The third potential release candidate is Logan Thomas who would net about $5 million in savings. That’s $47.1 million in savings for those four players.
The question is then who replaces the starting left tackle, starting cornerback and starting tight end. The upside this is a pretty good draft for cornerbacks and tight ends. Thomas had an off year from a performance standpoint. He was also coming back from an injury. Fuller had an up and down year but graded out pretty good overall. Leno has issues with more speedy rushers and was not as good as last year, but the whole offensive line had issues and they played with many different line combinations.
The second step is for the Commanders to figure out which players to target in free agency, which is dependent on who they released.
Mock Draft Data
The number of mock drafts is up to 84 this week. Washington will have the 16th overall pick in the first round. The position picked by descending frequency is:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| CB | 54 | 64.29% | 60.87% | 3.42% |
| QB | 6 | 7.14% | 7.25% | -0.11% |
| LB | 6 | 7.14% | 7.25% | -0.11% |
| TE | 5 | 5.95% | 5.80% | 0.15% |
| OT | 5 | 5.95% | 7.25% | -1.30% |
| DL | 4 | 4.76% | 4.35% | 0.41% |
| IOL | 3 | 3.57% | 4.35% | -0.78% |
| WR | 1 | 1.19% | 1.45% | -0.26% |
| S | 0 | 0.00% | 1.45% | -1.45% |
| Edge | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Grand Total | 84 | 100% | 15 |
The players mock picked to Washington at the 16th pick are, in descending frequency:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Cam Smith | CB | South Carolina | 15 | 17.86% |
| Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon | 13 | 15.48% |
| Kelee Ringo | CB | Georgia | 8 | 9.52% |
| Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois | 8 | 9.52% |
| Joey Porter Jr | CB | Penn State | 5 | 5.95% |
| Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida | 5 | 5.95% |
| Brian Branch | CB | Alabama | 4 | 4.76% |
| Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame | 4 | 4.76% |
| Bryan Bresee | DL | Clemson | 3 | 3.57% |
| Paris Johnson Jr | OT | Ohio State | 3 | 3.57% |
| O’Cyrus Torrence | IOL | Florida | 3 | 3.57% |
| Noah Sewell | LB | Oregon | 2 | 2.38% |
| Trenton Simpson | LB | Clemson | 2 | 2.38% |
| Nolan Smith | LB | Georgia | 1 | 1.19% |
| Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee | 1 | 1.19% |
| Mike Morris | DL | Michigan | 1 | 1.19% |
| Anton Harris | OT | Oklahoma | 1 | 1.19% |
| Jalin Hyatt | WR | Tennessee | 1 | 1.19% |
| Clark Phillips III | CB | Utah | 1 | 1.19% |
| Will Levis | QB | Kentucky | 1 | 1.19% |
| Drew Sanders | LB | Arkansas | 1 | 1.19% |
| Darnell Washington | TE | Georgia | 1 | 1.19% |
| Grand Total | 84 | 100.00% |
Compensatory Picks
The Commanders are projected to receive two compensatory picks in the 2023 draft, a third round pick for Brandon Scherff signing with the Jaguars and a sixth round pick for Tim Settle signing with the Bills. The third round pick will most likely be around pick 98 and the sixth-round pick will be around 217. The official draft order will come out after the Super Bowl and before free agency starts.
Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, grindingthemocks.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, operations.nfl.com, overthcap.com, spotrac.com
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