2023 Conference Championship Playoff Preview

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January 28, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Well…..here we are.  Conference championship weekend.  Something that has alluded Washington for 30 years.  The NFC matchup ended up right on script, with the best 2 teams in the final game, but the presence of the Cincinnati Bengals is a least a small surprise to me.  What’s most readily apparent is that each of these teams has an elite young quarterback, which is evidence of just how much the quarterback position means to this sport.  This is one year that doesn’t have an obvious frontrunner, so it looks like we’re in for an exciting, unpredictable day of football.  Just how we like it.  And as a bonus for Washington fans, Dallas is out.  Enjoy the games.  Our preview is below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (14 – 3; 1st, AFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Buffalo Bills (13 – 3; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (12 – 4; 1st, AFC North)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9 – 8; 1st, AFC South)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC West)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC North)
  7. Miami Dolphins (9 – 8; 2nd, AFC East)

NFC

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (14 – 3; 1st, NFC East; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. San Francisco 49ers (13 – 4; 1st, NFC West)
  3. Minnesota Vikings (13 – 4; 1st, NFC North)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 – 9; 1st, NFC South)
  5. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC East)
  6. New York Giants (9 – 7 – 1; 3rd, NFC East)
  7. Seattle Seahawks (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC West)

2023 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 29

3:00 p.m. ET – San Francisco 49ers (#2) at Philadelphia Eagles (#1) (FOX, FOX Deportes)

6:30 p.m. ET – Cincinnati Bengals (#3) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1) (CBS, Paramount+)

Super Bowl 57

Sunday, Feb. 12

6:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona (Fox, FoxSports.com, fuboTV)

Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched travesty of music, again, when it could be Metallica  Rihanna

Game Previews

Cincinnati Bengals (#3) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1)

Early line: Chiefs, -1.5

The Chiefs scored 496 points and gained 7032 yards this season, which are both the best in the NFL.  They had 5062 passing yards, which is also #1 in the NFL.  Their rushing game is also effective, but not to the same extent as their passing game, with 1970 yards (ranked 20th) at an average of 4.7 yards per carry (ranked 11th).  They scored 27 or more points in 11 games this season.  2x First Team All-Pro and 5x Pro Bowl quarterback Patrick Mahomes had another outstanding season, with 435 completions in 648 attempts for a 67.1% completion percentage, 5250 yards, 41 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 105.2.  4x First Team All-Pro and 8x Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce was the leading receiver with 110 receptions for 1338 yards and 12 touchdowns.  JuJu Smith-Schuster had 78 receptions for 933 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Isiah Pacheco was team’s leading rusher with 170 carries for 830 yards, for an average of 4.9 yards per carry and 5 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Chiefs have given up 369 points, which is ranked 16th, 5579 total yards, ranked 12th, 3756 passing yards (ranked 19th), and 1823 rushing yards (ranked 8th) at 4.4 yards per attempt (ranked 18th).  Defensive tackle Chris Jones is the star of the front 7, with 15.5 sacks this season.

Cincinnati scored 418 points (ranked 8th), and gained 5768 total yards, 4240 passing yards (ranked 7th), and 1528 rushing yards (ranked 29th) at an average of 3.8 yards per carry, which is ranked 30th.  Quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 4475 yards, with a 68.3% completion percentage, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 100.8 quarterback rating.  The Bengals’ leading rusher was Joe Mixon, with 814 yards at an average of 3.9 yards per carry.  Tee Higgins was the leading receiver with 1029 yards on 74 carries.  Defensively, the Bengals gave up 322 points (ranked 5th), 5371 total yards (ranked 7th), 3665 passing yards (ranked 16th), and 1706 rushing yards (ranked 5th) for an average of 4.2 yards per carry (ranked 10th).  Cincinnati defeated the Ravens by a score of 24 – 17 in Wild Card weekend, with the winning score coming courtesy of a 98 yard fumble return for a touchdown by defensive lineman Sam Hubbard, which was the longest in postseason history.

The Bengals defeated the Chiefs in Cincinnati in week 13 by a score of 27 – 24.

Steve’s prediction:  This is lining up to be an outstanding game.  At the end of the day, though, Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, so even if he plays, odds are that he won’t be 100%.  The game will be close, but I think the Bengals win 28 – 24 and head back to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row.

San Francisco 49ers (#6) at Philadelphia Eagles (#1)

Early line: Eagles, -1.5

The Eagles scored 477 points this past season, which is second in the NFL, and gained 6614 total yards (also ranked 2nd), 4105 passing yards (ranked 9th), 2509 rushing yards (ranked 5th) at 4.6 yards per carry (ranked 14th).  The quarterback, Pro Bowler Jalen Hurts, played 15 games this year, missing weeks 16 and 17 due to a shoulder injury, and had 306 completions in 460 attempts, for 3701 yards, a 66.5% completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 101.5 quarterback rating.  In addition, he had 760 rushing yards in 165 carries, 4.6 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns.  Running back Miles Sanders is the leading rusher, with 1269 yards in 259 carries for an average of 4.9 yards per carry, and 11 touchdowns.  Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Brown was the leading receiver with 88 receptions for 1496 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Wide receiver DeVonta Smith had 95 receptions for 1196 yards and 7 touchdowns.   On defense, the Eagles allowed 344 points, ranked 8th, 5125 yards (ranked 3rd), and are #1 in the NFL in passing yards surrendered, #16 in rushing yards, and gave up 4.6 yards per carry, which is ranked 24th.

San Francisco’s offense scored 450 points this season, which is ranked 6th.  In the passing game, the 49ers as a team had a 66% completion percentage, which is ranked 11th, gained 2360 rushing yards (ranked 7th), and 4.7 yards per attempt (ranked 11th).  Rookie sensation Brock Purdy went 114 for 170 for 1374 yards and a 67.1% completion percentage, and threw 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 5 starts, and a quarterback rating of 107.3.  Receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle are the primary receiving threats, with 78 receptions for 1015 yards and 60 receptions for 765 yards this season, respectively.   Christian McCaffrey is the leader of the ground game, with 746 yards in 159 carries, for 4.7 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns, and also had 52 receptions for 464 yards.  Defensively, San Francisco is probably the best in the league, with only 277 points surrendered, which is ranked 1st, and 5110 yards surrendered, which is ranked 2nd.  They are also #1 against the run, with opponents gaining just 3.4 yards per carry.  They are not quite as strong against the pass, albeit still very good, with 3789 yards surrendered, which is ranked 21st.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a quarterback rating of 82.7, which is 5th in the NFL.  All Pro defensive end Nick Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks.

The Eagles and the 49ers did not play each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:  It feels like rookie Brock Purdy is headed for a Super Bowl destiny, but at the end of the day, the Eagles have the more prolific offense, so they’ll be able to produce slightly more than San Francisco.  Eagles win 24 – 20 and head to the Super Bowl.