How did Brian Robinson Jr. stack up against the other rookie running backs?

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January 30, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Last week, I wrote a column titled, “How does Ron Rivera stack up against prior Redskins coaches?” (click here to read).  That was a fun effort, so this week, I thought I’d continue with that theme and take a look at how rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr. performed during past season in comparison to his fellow rookies.  However, this subject is more complicated that just printing a list of those who gained the most yards – I’d like to give a bit more depth than that.  Without further ado, let’s dive in.  Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are courtesy of the fabulous Pro Football Reference.

A total of 22 running backs were drafted this past year, and another 6 undrafted free agents made statistically significant contributions.  To start with, this is the list showing which rookies had the most carries in 2022:

Rank Name Team Draft status # of carries Gms / GS
1 Kenneth Walker III Seattle Rd 2, pk 41 228 15 / 11
3 Travis Etienne Jacksonville Rd 1, pk 25 220 17 / 12
3 Dameon Pierce Houston Rd 4, pk 107 220 13 / 13
4 Tyler Allgeier Atlanta Rd 5, pk 151 210 16 / 7
5 Brian Robinson Jr. Washington Rd 3, pk 98 205 12 / 9
6 Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Rd 7, pk 251 170 17 / 11
7 Rachaad White Tampa Bay Rd 3, pk 91 129 17 / 8
8 James Cook Buffalo Rd 2, pk 63 89 16 / 0
9 Zonovan Knight NY Jets UDFA 85 7 / 4
10 Breece Hall NY Jets Rd 2, pk 36 80 7 / 2

As you can see, from a usage standpoint, Robinson is in the group of just 6 who had more than 200 carries.  Robinson, of course, missed the first 4 games while he was recovering from his gunshot wounds.  There’s no telling how many carries he would have gotten in those 4 weeks, but based on this statistic it’s safe to say that Washington believes in his talent as much or more than any other rookie.  It’s likely that he might have ended up in first place if he had been available to start the season.

The next chart shows the yards per carry, number of carries, and total rushing yards gained for rookie running backs, sorted by yards per carry, with a minimum of 20 carries:

Rank Name Team Draft status YPC # of carries rushing yds
1 Jordan Mason San Francisco UDFA 6.0 43 258
2 Breece Hall NY Jets Rd 2, pk 36 5.8 80 463
3 James Cook Buffalo Rd 2, pk 63 5.7 89 507
4 Travis Etienne Jacksonville Rd 1, pk 25 5.1 220 1125
5 Tyler Allgeier Atlanta Rd 5, pk 151 4.9 210 1035
6 Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh UDFA 4.9 77 379
7 Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Rd 7, pk 251 4.9 170 830
8 Kenneth Walker III Seattle Rd 2, pk 41 4.6 228 1050
9 Dameon Pierce Houston Rd 4, pk 107 4.3 220 939
10 Malik Davis Dallas UDFA 4.2 38 161
11 Brian Robinson Jr. Washington Rd 3, pk 98 3.9 205 797

As you can see, by this measurement, Robinson falls short.  Stats for backs with only a handful of carries can be deceiving; however, of the 6 rookies with at least 170 carries, Robinson was behind all of them, by 1.2 yards per carry in the case of the leader, Travis Etienne, and 0.4 yards in the case of Houston’s Dameon Pierce.  However, as we all know, the Redskins’ the Washington Football Team’s the Commanders’ Washington’s offensive line . . . well . . . stinks, and that is clearly a major factor in any running back’s performance.  Therefore, let’s take a look at some advanced stats in order to get a clearer picture of Robinson’s results

The chart below shows a list of the top rookie performers as measured by rushing yards before contact per attempt.  This is a measure of the yards gained before the running back comes into contact with a defender.  This stat is a bit of a double-edged sword, to a certain extent, in that a particularly elusive back – think Barry Sanders – could do better than others, but it is more of a measure of offensive line performance.  A back getting hit immediately is more often than not a victim of a porous line in front of him.  Check out these numbers:

Rank Name Team Draft status YBC/Carry # of carries
1 Breece Hall NY Jets Rd 2, pk 36 4.2 80
2 James Cook Buffalo Rd 2, pk 63 3.7 89
3 Travis Etienne Jacksonville Rd 1, pk 25 3.4 220
4 Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Rd 7, pk 251 3.2 170
6 Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh UDFA 3.1 77
6 Malik Davis Dallas UDFA 3.1 38
8 Tyler Allgeier Atlanta Rd 5, pk 151 2.9 210
8 Jordan Mason San Francisco UDFA 2.9 43
9 Kenneth Walker III Seattle Rd 2, pk 41 2.7 228
10 Zonovan Knight NY Jets UDFA 2.5 85
11 Rachaad White Tampa Bay Rd 3, pk 91 2.4 129
12 Brian Robinson Jr. Washington Rd 3, pk 98 2.2 205
13 Dameon Pierce Houston Rd 4, pk 107 2.0 220

As you can see, Robinson is pretty far down the list, meaning that he got hit quicker on average than every one of his peers except for Dameon Pierce, who plays for the sad-sack Texans.  Once again, the numbers for backs with limited carries are deceiving.  As I said above, in my view, this stat is more of a measure of the quality of the offensive line, and possible the offensive scheme, more than anything else.  We all know that that is Washington’s principal offensive weakness, beyond the quarterback position.

To put this into better context, this next chart shows the average yards after contact per attempt, with a 25 carry minimum:

Rank Name Team Draft status YAC/carry # of carries
1 Jordan Mason San Francisco UDFA 3.1 43
2 Hassan Haskins Tennessee Rd 4, pk 131 2.5 25
3 Dameon Pierce Houston Rd 4, pk 107 2.3 220
5 Tyler Allgeier Atlanta Rd 5, pk 151 2.0 210
5 James Cook Buffalo Rd 2, pk 63 2.0 89
6 Kenneth Walker III Seattle Rd 2, pk 41 1.9 228
8 Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh UDFA 1.8 77
8 Travis Etienne Jacksonville Rd 1, pk 25 1.8 220
11 Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Rd 7, pk 251 1.7 170
11 Raheem Blackshear Carolina UDFA 1.7 23
11 Brian Robinson Jr. Washington Rd 3, pk 98 1.7 205
12 Breece Hall NY Jets Rd 2, pk 36 1.6 80

This statistic is more of a true measure of a running back’s talent.  How many yards is he creating?  Obviously, offensive line and scheme still come into play here, but yards after contact is a decent way to determine his success rate because it is more of a measure of yards for which the running back is responsible.  You can see that Robinson, at 1.7, is pretty far down on this chart as well; in fact, only Breece Hall, at 1.6, is below him.  Houston’s Dameon Pierce is a full 0.6 yards better on average than Robinson.  This says that, perhaps, Robinson’s relative lack of success should be at least partially attributed to him, not just the offensive line.

Finally, this last chart shows the number of rushing attempts per broken tackle, minimum of 20 atempts:

Rank Name Team Draft status Attempts per broken tackle # of carries
1 Dameon Pierce Houston Rd 4, pk 107 6.0 220
2 Hassan Haskins Tennessee Rd 4, pk 131 12.5 25
3 Jordan Mason San Francisco UDFA 14.3 43
4 Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh UDFA 15.4 77
5 Travis Etienne Jacksonville Rd 1, pk 25 15.7 220
6 Tyrion Davis-Price San Francisco Rd 3, pk 93 17.0 34
8 Malik Davis Dallas UDFA 19.0 38
8 Kenneth Walker III Seattle Rd 2, pk 41 19.0 228
9 Brian Robinson Jr. Washington Rd 3, pk 98 25.6 205
10 Breece Hall NY Jets Rd 2, pk 36 26.7 80
11 James Cook Buffalo Rd 2, pk 63 29.7 89
12 Rachaad White Tampa Bay Rd 3, pk 91 32.3 129
13 Tyler Allgeier Atlanta Rd 5, pk 151 42.0 210
15 Zonovan Knight NY Jets UDFA 42.5 85
15 Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Rd 7, pk 251 42.5 170

Robinson is in the bottom-middle of this list, at 1 broken tackle per 25.6 carries.  That’s far lower than several others who were also primary backs for their team, including Pierce, Etienne, and Walker.  Honestly, I’m surprised that Robinson isn’t better in this statistic given that he’s more of a straight ahead, power back type of player.

What does all of this mean?  First, it’s more evidence that quality starting running backs can be found anywhere.  Specifically, I think the Texans’ Dameon Pierce shows the most promise even though he only averaged 4.3 yards per carry.  Pierce got hit nearly immediately, at an average of just 2.0 yards per contact, but is #3 in yards after contact and #1 by a wide, wide margin in broken tackles.  Pierce is a quality player, and for his sake, I hope the Texans don’t ruin him.  As for Robinson, he’s a great story and demonstrated great character by coming back from being shot to become a productive player.  On the other hand, though, the deep-dive numbers here showed why his overall yards per carry isn’t better – like Pierce, his offensive line is allowing him to get hit very quickly, but unlike Pierce, he’s not breaking tackles and has been unable to gain significant yardage after contact.  Robinson’s college film showed that he could be a quality traditional, straight ahead, NFL power back, and I predicted before training camp even began that he’d be Washington’s starter in year one.  He has some significant areas to improve, though, and if anything, this exercise has showed that Washington needs to keep looking for improvements to their running back group.