2023 Road to the Draft – Part 3

February 3, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

There have been no major announcements about the sale of the franchise, and now, with the Super Bowl at hand, I suspect no announcement to be forthcoming until after the game is done. The NFL generally doesn’t like any other big news to break during the two weeks between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl.

Let’s Talk Offensive Line

If the plan for the 2023 season is to start Sam Howell at quarterback and support him with a strong run game, the offensive line must be overhauled. The offensive line was almost a weekly rotation of players starting outside of two players. The snap count for the offensive line:

Player Offense Snap Offense Snap Rate
Charles Leno 1190 100.00%
Andrew Norwell 1121 94.20%
Trai Turner 767 64.50%
Cornelius Lucas 672 56.50%
Samuel Cosmi 585 49.20%
Tyler Larsen 535 45.00%
Wes Schweitzer 419 35.20%
Saahdiq Charles 290 24.40%
Nick Martin 156 13.10%
Chase Roullier 150 12.60%
Chris Paul 66 5.50%
Wes Martin 1 0.10%

Of this group, Schweitzer, Turner, Larsen, and Nick Martin are all free agents this offseason.  Leno also has a cap hit of $12.445 million and dead cap of $4.5 million, so releasing him could save nearly $8 million in cap space. Roullier signed a new 4 year contract in 2021 and has a $12.42 million cap hit in 2023 and $8.1 million in dead cap. He has gone on injured reserve the last two years with significant injuries. Therefore, the front office and coaching staff have some difficult work to accomplish to figure out how to restructure this offensive line. The biggest decision is whether to cut Leno and spend the first round pick on a new starting left tackle. The next biggest decision is whether to re-sign Schweitzer and Larsen, who have been valuable contributors over the last several seasons. Offensive line depth is necessary during an 18 week NFL season.

Mock Draft Data

The number of mock drafts is up 15 this week to 99. The Commanders will have the 16th overall pick in the first round. The position picked by descending frequency is:

Position Picked Count Picked % Last Week % % Change
CB 61 61.62% 64.29% -2.67%
QB 11 11.11% 7.14% 3.97%
LB 7 7.07% 7.14% -0.07%
OT 7 7.07% 5.95% 1.12%
TE 5 5.05% 5.95% -0.90%
DL 4 4.04% 4.76% -0.72%
IOL 3 3.03% 3.57% -0.54%
WR 1 1.01% 1.19% -0.18%
S 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Edge 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
RB 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 99 100%  

The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 16th pick are in descending frequency:

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon 15 15.15%
Cam Smith CB South Carolina 15 15.15%
Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois 10 10.10%
Joey Porter Jr CB Penn State 10 10.10%
Anthony Richardson QB Florida 9 9.09%
Kelee Ringo CB Georgia 6 6.06%
Paris Johnson Jr OT Ohio State 4 4.04%
Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame 4 4.04%
Brian Branch CB Alabama 4 4.04%
Bryan Bresee DL Clemson 3 3.03%
O’Cyrus Torrence IOL Florida 3 3.03%
Noah Sewell LB Oregon 2 2.02%
Nolan Smith LB Georgia 2 2.02%
Will Levis QB Kentucky 2 2.02%
Trenton Simpson LB Clemson 2 2.02%
Darnell Wright OT Tennessee 1 1.01%
Mike Morris DL Michigan 1 1.01%
Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee 1 1.01%
Drew Sanders LB Arkansas 1 1.01%
Anton Harris OT Oklahoma 1 1.01%
Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern 1 1.01%
Darnell Washington TE Georgia 1 1.01%
Clark Phillips III CB Utah 1 1.01%
Grand Total 99 100.00%

 

 

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, grindingthemocks.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthcap.com, spotrac.com