Free Agency 2023 Preview: Linebackers

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February 8, 2023

by David Earl

The Top Linebacker FA for 2023

Heading into the 2023 offseason Washington’s linebacker group is second only to the offensive line in the area of need. Yes, I understand the quarterback position is not ideal but that’s just a norm for this organization and a separate topic altogether. Today, let’s look at the available linebackers. The chart below specifically targets an emphasis on pass coverage, which has been an area on which other teams have feasted against Washington for years now.

Player Age 2022 Coverage Rating 3yr Rating Average % Change from 2021 Comp.% Against Total Tackles 2022 Sacks 2022 Missed Tackle 2022
Germaine Pratt (Cin) 27   62.1 91.2 +39%
    62.5% 99 1 4.80%
Tremaine Edmunds (Buf) 25   69.9 96.7 +34%
    65% 102 1 1.00%
David Long (Ten) 26   74.1 81.8 -18%    73.6% 86 0 10.40%
Kaden Elliss* (NOS) 28   76.8 97.7 +36%
   61.3% 78 7 6.00%
T.J. Edwards (Phi) 27   82.1 96.3 +18%    69.7% 159 2 6.50%
Lavonte David (TBB) 33   90.9 96.9 +15%    75.3% 124 3 6.80%
Bobby Okereke (Ind) 27   91.3 91.9 +4%    70.7% 151 0 6.80%
Leighton Vander Esch (Dal) 27   95.4 94.1 -8%    77.4% 90 1 3.20%
Alex Singleton (Den) 29   97.6 103.9 +13%    76.6% 163 0 4.10%
Drue Tranquill (LAC) 28   101.2 108.9 +14%     86% 146 5 5.80%

While there are some interesting numbers above, they mean nothing without any type of comparison. Throughout the year names like Fred Warner (SF) and Haason Reddick (Phi) were the gold standard for this position in 2022. Their successes were not only at an individual level but their play greatly affected their respective teams’ defensive performance. Before we dive into the free agents, here are the numbers of some of the top tier at this position:

  • Haasan Reddick: Targeted 12 times and gave up 58.3% completions and had an overall coverage rating of 80.9, which is a small sample size. His prior 3 year completion against average was 77.4%, with an overall average coverage rating of 113.7 over those 3 seasons. His coverage stats are not exactly exciting but he has been in double-digit sacks the last 3 seasons while averaging 14.3 quarterback hurries each season. While he may not be what you want in coverage, Reddick’s ability to disrupt the quarterback’s rhythm is equally as valuable.
  • Fred Warner: Warner is certainly the polar opposite of Reddick. On 68 targets quarterbacks have completed 60.3% of their pass attempts against Warner. He posted an overall 73 coverage rating. Although he is not often used in the pass rush, Warner has a continued knack for the ball in the run game totaling 130 total tackles in the 2022 season.

A Deeper Look at the Numbers

  • Rating Change Percentage: This category simply shows whether the player improved or regressed from the 2021 season compared to the last season. The highlighted numbers in the 30th percentile are certainly good numbers on the surface, but look deeper. Cincinnati’s Germaine Pratt showed the most improvement this past year, decreasing his coverage rating from 101.4 in 2021 to finishing last season at a 62.1 rating. He also improved his allowed quarterback completion percentage from 77.1% to finishing last season at 62.5%. Buffalo’s Tremaine Edmunds is the most recognizable name here and has been comparable to Pratt across the board and is the surest tackler of the group, with a 1% missed tackle rate. Plus, his age of 25 years old probably makes him the most enticing option on this free agent list. With all that said the most intriguing player in this category is Kaden Elliss of the New Orleans Saints. While his coverage rating is a bit higher than the previously mentioned players, the quarterback’s completion percentage against him is the lowest of the entire group at 61.3% on 31 targets. What makes him stand apart here is his ability to get to the quarterback efficiently garnering 7 sacks on 24 blitz attempts.
  • Buyer Beware: I wrote a player spotlight piece on Lavonte David in which I cited the value he can bring but let’s also be careful, as his age (33), overall coverage rating (90.9), and quarterbacks completion percentage against (75.3%) of 73 targets is not ideal. His value comes in his experience, preventing him from being a liability, as well as his mentorship of Jamin Davis and a potential drafted middle linebacker. Signing David cannot be the answer to the position, but rather a stop-gap move to the future.  David Long of Tennessee who is one of the top-listed linebackers going into this offseason, is also available. The biggest concern with Long is that quarterbacks have always completed better than 70% of their passes against him while his miss tackle rate has been 10% or higher each year. At age 26 years old and coming off one of his better seasons, Long may demand more money than what he is actually worth.
  • Product of the situation: T.J. Edwards of the Eagles significantly improved his coverage grade by 18%, from 99.6 in the 2021 season to 82.1 grade last year, but his numbers prior to this season were not anything really special. Edwards’ tackle totals increased but his missed tackle percentage of 6.5% is higher than you’d like and the previous two season’s coverage rating being 100 and higher should be considered in his evaluation. Playing alongside Haasan Reddick and having that mammoth and effective defensive line in front may have played more part in his improvement than his actual progression.

The Norm in Washington

It has been no secret just how awful this organization has been at the linebacker position in recent memory in pass coverage mainly. The two recent names to reference here are Cole Holcomb and Jonathan Bostic. Before I get into the numbers it is important to stress just how good of a draft pick Cole was as a fifth round pick. He has been a smart hard nosed player who had a knack for defending the run well and applying the occasional pressure on the quarterback. While he has surely earned a new contract, even with Washington, he cannot be the answer going forward as the middle linebacker. With that said, here are the numbers that have made this fanbase frustrated:

  • Holcomb: In his 4-year career, Cole Holcomb has an average coverage rating of 100.3 with his 125.6 rating last season being his worst to date. Quarterbacks averaged 73% completions against him in coverage.  He faced his highest number of targets in the 2021 season (81) he allowed a completion rate of 74.1% and a coverage rating of 95.7.
  • Bostic: Another downhill linebacker who diagnoses the run well and has been an overall solid player. Like Cole, though, it is his coverage that has continued to hurt this team time and time again. In his previous 4-years he has allowed an average completion percentage of 76.9 with an average coverage rating during that time of 109.4.

Conclusion

Once again, Washington’s linebacker position has to be addressed in a major way this offseason and the available free agents can go a long way to help this group immensely. The sexy name here, and rightfully so, is Tremaine Edmunds from Buffalo. At 25 years old the Bills would be crazy to allow him to walk but, if he does, this is a name Ron Rivera should go after. He is a sure tackler (1% missed tackle rate) who has steadily improved in coverage over the last few years. Being only 25, he still has room to grow as a middle linebacker. Germaine Pratt projects more of the safest play of the group, and not in a negative way. Pratt is just a sound linebacker who does everything well and shows signs of true potential and being effective in the passing game. The player who intrigues me the most is the Saints’ Kaden Elliss. While he is a bit undersized as a middle linebacker at 6’3″ and 238 lbs, he has shown good instincts in the passing game with a 76.8 coverage rating to go with a high-level pass rush. On 24 designed blitzes for Kaden, he hurried the quarterback 1 time while generating 7 sacks too. He could very well give Washington a poor man’s version of both Fred Warner in coverage and Haasan Reddick in the pass rush.