2023 Road to the Draft – Part 5
February 17, 2023
By Noonefromtampa
Rumors about the sale of the Washington team started leaking out last week. The first round was supposedly an “interest of intent” for potentials buyers to indicate they would like to submit a formal bid. One potential buyer, Todd Boehly, has allegedly dropped out of the process already, while another, Josh Harris, was seen touring the facilities. Almost everyone is expecting Jeff Bezos to swoop in at the last minute and buy the team for close to Dan Snyder’s asking price of $7 billion.
Let’s Talk Defensive Secondary
The 2022 season the Commanders defensive secondary have a down and up year. First, we’ll look at the snap counts for the defensive backs:
| Player | Position | Def Snap Count | Pct of Def Plays |
| Kendall Fuller | CB | 1,031 | 98.75% |
| Bobby McCain | CB, FS | 971 | 93.01% |
| Darrick Forrest | FS | 850 | 81.42% |
| Kamren Curl | SS | 727 | 69.64% |
| Benjamin St-Juste | CB | 655 | 62.74% |
| Danny Johnson | CB | 293 | 28.07% |
| Rachad Wildgoose | CB | 195 | 18.68% |
| Jeremy Reaves | FS | 149 | 14.27% |
| Percy Butler | FS | 135 | 12.93% |
| Christian Holmes | CB | 103 | 9.87% |
| Tariq Castro-Fields | CB | 6 | 0.57% |
Once the Commanders traded away William Jackson III to the Steelers, the secondary saw a dramatic improvement in performance. The group of Fuller, McCain, Forrest, Curl, and St-Juste, gave the team the best grouping in the secondary that they have had in several seasons. Unfortunately, injuries did not allow them to play together much of the time. Fuller and McCain can also bring significant cap relief by being released, in the amount of $8.5 million for Fuller and $2.3 million for McCain. The issue is that both played very well during the last half of the season. St-Juste outplayed Jackson,which lead to the trade, but he has missed 13 games in his first two seasons. Wildgoose lead the team in penalties, so I would not expect him to make the team next season and Johnson also outplayed him. The Commanders also have a good group of young players in Butler, Holmes and Castro-Fields (whom they liked in the draft but was selected before the Commanders pick).
A lot of the mock drafts have the Commanders taking a cornerback in the first round, and the cornerback position is loaded in the first round with as many as six players projected to be selected. If the Commanders elect to release Fuller or McCain, taking a cornerback in the first makes more sense.
Mock Draft Data
The number of mock drafts is up 12 again this week to 123. The Commanders will have the 16th overall pick in the first round. The position picked by descending frequency is:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| CB | 78 | 63.41% | 65.77% | -2.36% |
| QB | 14 | 11.38% | 11.71% | -0.33% |
| LB | 10 | 8.13% | 7.21% | 0.92% |
| OT | 9 | 7.32% | 7.21% | 0.11% |
| TE | 4 | 3.25% | 3.60% | -0.35% |
| DL | 3 | 2.44% | 1.80% | 0.64% |
| IOL | 3 | 2.44% | 1.80% | 0.64% |
| WR | 1 | 0.81% | 0.90% | -0.09% |
| RB | 1 | 0.81% | 0.00% | 0.81% |
| Edge | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| S | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Grand Total | 123 | 100% |
The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 16th pick are, in descending frequency:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon | 21 | 17.65% |
| Joey Porter Jr | CB | Penn State | 17 | 14.29% |
| Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida | 13 | 10.92% |
| Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois | 12 | 10.08% |
| Cam Smith | CB | South Carolina | 12 | 10.08% |
| Kelee Ringo | CB | Georgia | 9 | 7.56% |
| Brian Branch | CB | Alabama | 4 | 3.36% |
| Peter Skoronski | OT | Northwestern | 4 | 3.36% |
| Trenton Simpson | LB | Clemson | 4 | 3.36% |
| Noah Sewell | LB | Oregon | 3 | 2.52% |
| Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame | 3 | 2.52% |
| Nolan Smith | LB | Georgia | 2 | 1.68% |
| Bryan Bresee | DL | Clemson | 2 | 1.68% |
| Paris Johnson Jr | OT | Ohio State | 2 | 1.68% |
| O’Cyrus Torrence | IOL | Florida | 2 | 1.68% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas | 1 | 0.84% |
| Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia | 1 | 0.84% |
| Mike Morris | DL | Michigan | 1 | 0.84% |
| Jalin Hyatt | WR | Tennessee | 1 | 0.84% |
| Anton Harrison | OT | Oklahoma | 1 | 0.84% |
| John Michael Schmitz | IOL | Minnesota | 1 | 0.84% |
| Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee | 1 | 0.84% |
| Drew Sanders | LB | Arkansas | 1 | 0.84% |
| Will Levis | QB | Kentucky | 1 | 0.84% |
| Grand Total | 119 | 100.00% |
Mock Freshness
| Mock Age | Age % |
| New | 27.64% |
| 1 Week Old | 17.89% |
| 2 Weeks Old | 16.26% |
| 3 Weeks Old | 12.20% |
| 4 Weeks Old | 11.38% |
| 5 Weeks Old | 6.50% |
| 6 Weeks Old | 2.44% |
| 7 Weeks Old | 2.44% |
| 8 Weeks Old | 3.25% |
| Grand Total | 100.00% |
Trades
One of mock drafts had an interesting trade between the Commanders and the Jaguars. In the trade the Jaguars receive Washington’s No. 16 pick and a 2024 4th rounder, while the Commanders receive the No. 24 pick, No. 88 pick, No. 121 pick, and a 2024 2nd rounder. With the 24th pick, the Commanders took center John Michael Schmitz. I like this move, as Schmitz had a good week at the Senior Bowl and could move into the lower part of the first round by draft day with a solid showing at the Combine. He would instantly solidify the interior of the offensive line. The extra pick at #88 (which is before Washington’s 3rd round compensatory pick) would give the team more flexibility with options like CB Julius Brents of Kansas State, TE Sam LaPorta of Iowa, LB Jack Campbell of Iowa or OT Jaelyn Duncan of Maryland.
Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, grindingthemocks.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthcap.com, spotrac.com
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