Free Agency Preview 2023: Quarterbacks

March 3, 2023

by Steve Thomas

With the end of the 2023 – 2023 season now in the rearview mirror, Washington’s quarterback room is currently down to Sam Howell, the second year player who started in week 18, and 2022 practice squad player Jake Fromm, who recently signed a futures deal.  The expensive and underperforming Carson Wentz was released this week, and Taylor Heinicke is a free agent.  Therefore, Washington will definitely need to either sign or draft at least one quarterback, probably two.  The idea that the team would be satisfied in starting Howell is questionable in its own right, but it is impossible to think that Washington would do that without at least one veteran backup.  Therefore, I expect at least one quarterback free agent to be with Washington next year.  The real question is whether Washington will spend big money on a starter-level player, or whether Howell will indeed get the job and be backed up by a less-expensive second-tier veteran.  Let’s take a look at some possibilities across the spectrum of available candidates:

Lamar Jackson (6’2” / 230, age 26, 1st rd, 2018 / Ravens):  Jackson has a very poor agent, which is probably the chief cause of his presence on this list.  The Ravens exercised their fifth year option on Jackson for 2022, but haven’t franchise tagged him as of yet.  They have until March 7 to do so.  Jackson, who won the League MVP award and was a First Team All-Pro in 2019, and is a 2x Pro Bowler, has played a total of 70 games, with 61 starts, in 5 years.  In that time, he has 1055 completions in 1655 attempts, for a 63.7% completion percentage, 12,209 yards, 101 touchdowns,  38 interceptions, and a 96.7 quarterback rating.  He also has a total of 727 rushing attempts for 4437 yards, for an average of 6.1 yards per carry, and 24 touchdowns.  In 2022, Jackson played and started 12 games, and had 203 completions in 326 attempts, a 62.3% completion percentage, 2242 yards, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 91.1 quarterback rating, plus 112 rushing attempts for 764 yards, and average of 6.8 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns.  There have been some rumors about Washington possibly trading for Jackson, presumably if Baltimore tagged him, but they are mostly unfounded fan nonsense.  Considering number of draft picks that would take, and more importantly, Jackson’s terrible agent is apparently demanding a fully guaranteed contract that’s larger than pervert Deshaun Watson, this seems like a pipedream for Washington.

Jimmy Garoppolo (6’2” / 225, age 31, 2nd rd, 2014 / Patriots):  Garoppolo has played nine seasons for the Patriots and 49ers, with a total of 57 starts in 74 games, 1167 completions in 1726 attempts, 67.6% completion percentage, 87 touchdowns, 42 interceptions, and a 99.6 quarterback rating.  Last season, Garoppolo was named as the backup to future bust Trey Lance, but got the starting job back when Lance broke his ankle in week 2.  In total in 2022, he played 11 games, with 10 starts, and had 207 completions in 308 attempts, for a 67.2% completion percentage, 16 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 103.0 quarterback rating.  Garoppolo’s career stats may be inflated by having played with two of the NFL’s best teams for his whole career, but the fact is that he’s viewed as a potential franchise quarterback.  His new contract will reflect that reality, probably in the neighborhood of $35M, which is probably too much for Washington.

Derek Carr (6’3” / 210, age 31, 2nd rd, 2014 / Raiders):  Carr spent nine years with the Raiders, playing and starting 142 games in his career, with 3201 completions in 4958 attempts, for 35222 yards, a 64.6% completion percentage, 217 touchdowns, 99 interceptions, and a 91.8 quarterback rating.  This past season, he played and started 15 games, with 305 completions in 502 attempts for 3522 yards, a 60.8% completion percentage, 24 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 86.3.  Carr was recently cut by the Raiders when he refused to waive his no-trade clause and had a guarantee deadline in his contract.  Carr is the top non-Jackson free agent quarterback who is on the market.  He clearly cares about the situation he’s going to walk into, and more importantly is expected to want a contract worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $35M – $40M per year in average annual value, so it seems far-fetched to think he’s going to be in Washington next season.

Daniel Jones (6’5” / 221, age 25, 6th overall pick, 2019 / Giants): Jones has spent his four year career with the New York Giants, and has played a total of 54 games, with 53 starts, with a total of 1113 completions in 1740 attempts, for a 64.0% completion percentage, 11603 yards, 60 touchdowns, 34 interceptions, and an 86.5 quarterback rating.  However, Jones showed significant improvement in 2022, with 16 games and starts, and 317 completions in 472 attempts, a 67.2% completion percentage, 3205 yards, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a 92.5 quarterback rating.  The Giants should be commended for their handling of Jones – he’s come a long way since his poor rookie year, and the Giants stuck with him through thick and thin, and have emerged on the other end with a potential franchise quarterback.  Many other teams would have given up on Jones years ago.  Washington, which has ruined more quarterbacks over the past 25 years than almost any other franchise, would’ve almost certainly benched Jones as a rookie.  The truth is, though, that New York is likely going to make a strong attempt to re-sign Jones, despite some salary cap challenges, so it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to be available for Washington.  Spotrac puts his average annual value at $26.2M.

Geno Smith (6’3” / 221, age 32, 2nd rd, 2013 / Jets):  Smith has essentially been a career journeyman, with 4 years with the Jets, followed by one with the Giants, one with the Chargers, and three in Seattle.  In his career, he’s played 62 games, including 51 starts, and has 991 completions in 1578 attempts, a 62.8% completion percentage, 11199 yards, 64 touchdowns, 48 interceptions, and an 84.8 quarterback rating.  However, last year with the Seahawks went very well for Smith – he played and started all 17 games, and made 399 completions in 572 attempts, for a completion percentage of 69.8, 4282 yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 100.9 quarterback rating.  The truth is that Seattle would be foolish not to re-sign Smith, and Spotrac pegs his expected average annual value at nearly $40M, so there’s very little chance of him coming to Washington.

Teddy Bridgewater (6’2” / 215, age 30, 1st rd, 2014 / Vikings): Bridgewater has moved around quite a bit in his 8 year NFL career, with 3 years in Minnesota, followed by 2 in New Orleans, then Carolina, Denver, and Miami.  In total, he’s played 78 games, starting 65, and has 1372 completions in 2067 attempts, for a 66.4% completion percentage, with 15120 yards, 75 touchdowns, 47 interceptions, and a 90.5 quarterback rating.  This past season with Miami, Bridgewater played 5 games, including 2 starts, and had 49 completions in 79 attempts for 683 yards, a 62.0% completion percentage, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and an 85.6 quarterback rating.  Bridgewater is precisely the sort of journeyman veteran that Washington could use next season, whether as a bridge starter or as a high-quality backup to a shaky starter like Howell.  His contract with Miami in 2022 was just $6.5M, and I don’t expect that he’d want much more.

Sam Darnold (6’3” / 225, age 25, 3rd overall pick, 2018 / Jets): Darnold spent three years with the Jets, then was traded to Carolina in the 2021 offseason.  In total, he has played 56 games, with 55 starts, and has 1054 completions in 1765 attempts, which is a 59.7% completion percentage, for 11767 yards, 61 touchdowns, 55 interceptions, and a 78.2 quarterback rating.  Last year, the Panthers originally named Darnold as the backup to Baker Mayfield, but suffered a high ankle sprain in preseason and was put on injured reserve.  He returned to the active roster on November 7, and was eventually named the starter over Mayfield in week 12.  In total, he played and started 6 games last year, and made 82 completions in 140 attempts, for a 58.6% completion percentage, 1143 yards, 7 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 92.6.  Darnold’s questionable tenure with the Jets is tempered somewhat by the fact that it was the Jets, where NFL careers go to die, and he actually had a decent stretch at the end of last season.  Darnold isn’t going to get a huge contract offer – Spotrac estimates his value at $5.1M in average annual value.  He’s probably not a long-term starter, but is a possibility as a veteran backup in Washington.

Baker Mayfield (6’1” / 215, age 27, 1st overall pick, 2018 / Browns):  Mayfield was with Cleveland through the 2021 season, when the Browns traded him to Carolina in the 2022 offseason when the Browns foolishly traded for (alleged) pervert Deshaun Watson.  Throughout his career, he’s played 72 games, with 69 starts, and made 1386 completions in 2259 starts, for a 61.4% completion percentage, 16288 yards, 102 touchdowns, 64 interceptions, and an 86.5 quarterback rating.  In 2021, which was his last year as a full-time starter, he played and started 14 games, and made 253 completions in 418 attempts for 3010 yards, 60.5% completion percentage, 17 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and an 83.1 quarterback rating.  Last year, he played 12 games, with 10 starts, and made 201 completions in 335 attempts, 10 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and had a 79.0 quarterback rating.  Mayfield may be headed for a one year, “prove it” type of contract, so he’s an option for Washington from a value standpoint.  However, at the end of the day, I don’t believe that he’s a solid, long-term NFL starter.

Jacoby Brissett (6’4” / 235, age 30, 3rd rd, 2016 / Patriots): Brissett spent his first year with the Patriots before being traded to the Colts in September, 2017.  He stayed in Indianapolis through 2020, then signed with Miami for the 2021 season, followed by Cleveland this past season.  In total, he’s played 76 games, with 48 starts, and made 963 completions in 1577 attempts, for a 61.1% completion percentage, 10350 yards, 48 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, and an 84.4 quarterback rating.  Last year with Cleveland, he played 16 games, with 11 starts, and made 236 completions in 369 attempts, a 64.0% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and an 88.9 quarterback rating.  Brissett is a classic journeyman veteran and he’ll most likely command a reasonable contract.  Spotrac pegs his value at an average annual value of $5.4M.  Brissett wouldn’t be my first choice as a bridge starter or serious backup, as his career completion percentage and quarterback rating are too low to think he can turn things around at this juncture.

Mason Rudolph (6’5” / 235, age 27, 3rd rd, 2018 / Steelers):  Rudolph has spent his four year career with the Steelers, although he’s played very little during that time.  Rudolph didn’t see the field as a rookie.  Since then, and in total, he’s played 17 games, with 10 starts, and completed 236 passes in 384 attempts for a 61.5% completion percentage, 2366 yards, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 80.9 quarterback rating.  In 2022, Rudolph played just 2 games, including 1 start, and made 35 completions in 58 attempts for a 60.3% completion percentage, 277 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and a 70.8 quarterback rating.  Rudolph deserves a second chance, but his inexperience probably makes him the wrong choice for Washington, which needs an experienced starter-level quarterback.  Rudolph, on the other hand, is a project backup.

Taylor Heinicke (6’1” / 210, age 29, UDFA, 2015 / Vikings):  Heinicke remains an option for Washington despite the move to Eric Bieniemy as the new offensive coordinator.  His history is well known: Vikings in 2015 – 2016, Patriots and Texans in 2017, Panthers in 2018, something called the “St. Louis Battlehawks” in 2020, before being pulled off of his sister’s couch as Washington’s emergency quarterback during the Chinese Lab Leak Virus pandemic in 2020.  He has played 33 games, with 25 starts, 530 completions in 830 attempts, 63.9% completion percentage, 5745 yards, 34 touchdowns, 24 interceptions, and an 85.7 quarterback rating.  With Washington, he played in 26 games, with 24 starts, and made 494 completions in 772 attempts, a 64.0% completion percentage, 5415 yards, 33 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and an 87.5 quarterback rating.  Last season, he played and started 9 games, and made 161 completions in 259 attempts, with a 62.2% completion percentage, 1859 yards, 12 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and an 89.6 quarterback rating.  The fans have already made up their minds about Heinicke, but he’s been and will likely continue to be a quality backup if Washington wanted to sign him up again.

Andy Dalton (6’2” / 219, age 35, 2nd rd, 2011, Cincinnati):  This one’s for Alex, who mentioned Dalton on this week’s Hog Sty Podcast and wondered why I didn’t review him on the show.  Dalton spent 9 years in Cincinnati, followed by one year stints with Dallas, Chicago, and New Orleans.  In total, he’s played 166 games, with 162 starts, and has 3374 completions in 5396 attempts, 62.5% completion percentage, 38,150 yards, 244 touchdowns, 144 interceptions, and an 87.6 quarterback rating.  Dalton was pretty good in New Orleans last season, with 14 games and 14 starts, 252 completions in 378 attempts, a 66.7% completion percentage, 2871 yards, 18 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and a 95.2 quarterback rating.  Dalton is old by NFL quarterback standards and shouldn’t be looked at as anything more than a one year bridge quarterback.