2023 Road to the Draft – Part 14

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April 19, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

The team is sold, kind of. There is a non-binding, unsigned agreement in place between the Josh Harris ownership group and Dan Snyder to sell the team for $6.05 billion. Not too shabby for an $800 million investment. Of course, the rumor is that Snyder loses somewhat over a billion dollars of that to pay off the various debts he had incurred buying out the minority partners a couple of years ago. Jeff Bezos decided that he was not going to reward Dan’s bad behavior and enrich him further. The Steve Apostolopolous ownership group is rumored to be still in the running, trying to put together a higher bid. At this rate, the sale approval might not make it through all the reviews in time for a vote at the May Owners meeting.

Let’s Talk About the Commanders Draft

Last year, the mock draft results said the Commanders were going to take a wide receiver, which they did. The issue was the top three choices were Garrett Wilson, Drake London and Chris Olave. London went at #8 and Wilson went at #10. The Commanders then traded back with New Orleans to #16 picking up 3rd round and 4th round selections, replacing picks used in the Carson Wentz trade. You can infer that the Commanders may have had interest in London or Wilson but when they went before Washington’s pick at #11, the next wide receiver on their draft board was Jahan Dotson. They knew the Saints had an interest in Olave and used that to engineer the trade. They were then able to take Dotson at #16.

This year the mocks have the Commanders taking a corner as the most likely choice, with almost 63% of the mocks having a cornerback as the selection. If the Commanders do pick a cornerback, which one do they take is the big question. The leading selections are Joey Porter Jr., Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Deonte Banks, and Brian Branch.

I think Gonzalez and Witherspoon will be the first two cornerbacks drafted before the Commanders pick at #16. Conventional wisdom says the Commanders would likely take Porter or Banks and plug them in as a starter opposite Kendall Fuller. However, the front office under Martin Mayhew has shown itself to be somewhat unconventional when drafting. To me, this means that Brian Branch may be the pick the Commanders make at #16 if they go with a defensive back. Branch, who can play the slot corner role in a defense, also can play the hybrid safety/linebacker role matching up against tight ends, when those schemes are used. This makes him more valuable to the defense than just a pure cornerback.

Overall, I don’t think it is a lock that the Commanders take a cornerback in the draft. If a player like Broderick Jones or Dalton Kincaid is available at #16, Washington make be tempted to select them. Also, don’t rule out another draft day trade back for more picks either.

Mock Draft Data

The number of mock drafts is up 26 this week to 294. The Commanders will have the 16th overall pick in the first round. The position picked by descending frequency is:

Position Picked Count Picked % Last Week % % Change
CB 184 62.59% 58.21% 4.38%
OT 31 10.54% 11.19% -0.65%
QB 26 8.84% 8.21% 0.63%
TE 20 6.80% 7.84% -1.03%
IOL 11 3.74% 5.60% -1.86%
LB 8 2.72% 3.36% -0.64%
RB 6 2.04% 2.61% -0.57%
DL 4 1.36% 1.49% -0.13%
WR 2 0.68% 0.75% -0.07%
Edge 2 0.68% 0.75% -0.07%
S 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 294 100%   26

The big position gainer this week was cornerback, which was up nearly 4.4%. Quarterback was up slightly also, but all other positions were down this week.

The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 16th pick are, in descending frequency:

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Joey Porter Jr CB Penn State 66 22.45%
Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois 41 13.95%
Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon 24 8.16%
Deonte Banks CB Maryland 21 7.14%
Brian Branch CB Alabama 14 4.76%
Will Levis QB Kentucky 13 4.42%
Broderick Jones OT Georgia 13 4.42%
Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame 12 4.08%
Anthony Richardson QB Florida 11 3.74%
O’Cyrus Torrence IOL Florida 10 3.40%
Dalton Kincaid TE Utah 8 2.72%
Kelee Ringo CB Georgia 8 2.72%
Cam Smith CB South Carolina 7 2.38%
Bijan Robinson RB Texas 6 2.04%
Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern 5 1.70%
Darnell Wright OT Tennessee 5 1.70%
Drew Sanders LB Arkansas 4 1.36%
Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State 3 1.02%
Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma 3 1.02%
Paris Johnson Jr OT Ohio State 3 1.02%
Bryan Bresee DL Clemson 3 1.02%
Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee 2 0.68%
Trenton Simpson LB Clemson 2 0.68%
Dawand Jones OT Ohio State 2 0.68%
Nolan Smith LB Georgia 2 0.68%
Quintin Johnston WR TCU 1 0.34%
Isaiah Foskey Edge Notre Dame 1 0.34%
John Michael Schmitz IOL Minnesota 1 0.34%
Mike Morris DL Michigan 1 0.34%
Lukas Van Ness Edge Iowa 1 0.34%
Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee 1 0.34%
Grand Total 294 100.00%

Joey Porter Jr. built up a significant lead over Devon Witherspoon this week. The top five selections are now all cornerbacks. Will Levis jumped over Anthony Richardson, O’Cyrus Torrence, Michael Meyer and Broderick Jones to become the first non-CB player on the list..

Mock Freshness

Age Age % Count of Age
New 28.91% 85
1 Week Old 14.63% 43
2 Weeks Old 11.56% 34
3 Weeks Old 8.84% 26
4 Weeks Old 6.80% 20
5 Weeks Old 7.82% 23
6 Weeks Old 2.72% 8
7 Weeks Old 2.72% 8
8 Weeks Old 4.76% 14
9 Weeks Old 1.02% 3
10 Weeks Old 1.70% 5
11 Weeks Old 2.04% 6
12 Weeks Old 0.68% 2
13+Weeks Old 5.78% 17
Grand Total 100.00% 294

Trades

There were six new trades this week, two trade downs and four trade ups. Three of the four trade ups were for cornerbacks, and one was for quarterback Anthony Richardson. Both trade downs were for defensive backs. I am a big proponent of a trade back if possible. This is a very rich draft in the second and third rounds, so picking up an additional pick in one of those rounds adds another possible starter to the roster.

Notes Trade Direction Trade Position Trade Team Player
No details Up 11 TEN Cam Smith
No details Up 11 TEN Devon Witherspoon
No details Up 8 ATL Anthony Richardson
WSH gets #26, #57(2nd) for #16, #193 (6th) Down 26 NYG Emmanuel Forbes
No details Down 25 JAX Brian Branch
No details Up 14 NE Joey Porter Jr

 

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, grindingthemocks.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthcap.com, spotrac.com, pro-football-reference.com