Steve’s Annual Pre-draft Mock Draft

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April 27, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Welcome to draft week, everyone!  Aside from the Super Bowl, this is the biggest event on the NFL’s calendar, so lots of corporate earnings are on the line this week.  This year’s event is in Kansas City.  As usual, round 1 takes place on Thursday night, with rounds 2 and 3 on Friday night, and rounds 4 through 7 on Saturday.  What will Washington do this year?  Will Ron Rivera be smart, or be dumb?  That’s an open question.  As we do every year, we here at The Hog Sty have spent significant time writing and talking about each position group and Washington’s options.  Since draft week has finally arrived, it seemed like the right time to do my one attempt at a mock draft for the Redskins Washington.  More accurately stated, I did four of them in  row in order to get a better sense of who will probably be available when Washington’s turns come around.  Let’s discuss.

For this exercise, I visited www.fanspeak.com, which is the site of our old friend, Steve Shoup, who’s been a guest on The Hog Sty Podcast many times.  It’s a great mock draft simulator that has a number of different options for player databases and more.  I stuck with the Fanspeak draft board for all four drafts and ran each one on “classic” mode.  The idea here is that this is what I think Washington should do, not what they’ll actually do.

Round 1

In two of my four attempts, one of the top three offensive tackles were available at 16, so that was a no-brainer both times.  Draft #1 produced Georgia tackle Broderick Jones, and draft #4 saw tackle Peter Skoronski from Northwestern available.  Skoronski is the top-rated offensive lineman on many analysts’ boards, with Jones being the top true tackle of some.  Skoronski’s arms are probably too short to play left tackle in the NFL, but Washington is in desperate need of a guard, too, so either way, he’s a great pick.  Both of them were no-brainers.  In my other two mock draft attempts, neither Skoronski, Jones, nor tackle Paris Johnson were available, so the choices came down to Texas’ Bijan Robinson, who is the undisputed top-rated running back in the draft, one of two tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer, or a number of different corners.  I think it would be a waste of resources for Washington to draft corner this year, as they don’t have a big need for a starter at that position.  In both cases, I went with the running back, as Washington can make great use of a legit, plus-level runner.

At no time were any of the top quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis, or Anthony Richardson, available, although in my view the only one worth a first round pick is Stroud.

Round 2

I was able to grab Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker in drafts #1 and #2, which would be a major score at 16 in round 2 for a team that, Samuel Howell or no Sam Howell, desperately needs a quarterback.  I’m a fan of Hooker at this point of round 2, despite him being a couple of years older than the ideal.  My full writeup about this year’s quarterback class can be found here.  Hooker has all the physical tools, but will need some time to learn how to read the field at an quality NFL level, develop better accuracy on his deep ball, and most importantly, recover from his ACL tear back in November.  Fortunately, spending a second round pick shouldn’t make Washington’s coaches feel as though he needs to play immediately, so they can still let Howell and Jacoby Brissett fight it out for the starting role in 2023 and put Hooker on the PUP list.  After that, who knows – at least Washington will have options.  I love love love this pick.

Hooker was already gone in my third and fourth drafts, but I was instead able to grab a quality tight end, Luke Musgrave from Oregon St., in one and one of the top true guards, Cody Mauch from North Dakota St., in the other.  At 6’6” and 253 pounds, Musgrave has prototypical NFL size and can be the true inline tight end that Washington has missed for years.  For his part, Mauch has the potential of being a 10-year interior lineman.  Either one of those players would be a success for Washington.  In my order of preference; Hooker, Mauch, Musgrave.

Round 3

My goal in round 3 was to find a linebacker, which I view as the team’s next-biggest need, and that worked out in three of four drafts.  I drafted Noah Sewell in drafts 1 and 3.  He has the size of a true Mike linebacker, which is what Washington needs the most.  Sewell has weaknesses, namely instincts and coverage ability, but that’s why he was available in round 3.  In the end, though, Sewell has the potential to fill a big need in Washington’s linebacker corps.

With Sewell unavailable in drafts 2 and 4, I selected Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown in one draft and Boise St. safety JL Skinner in the other.  At 6’3” and 229 pounds, Overshown isn’t  an inside, Mike linebacker, but beggars can’t be choosers.  Overshown is probably going to be best suited as a nickel or dime backer, not inside and not on run defense.  Either way, though, Washington has virtually no linebackers worth significant play time outside of Jamin Davis, so this is a good pick.

In draft three, with Hooker and all of the linebackers gone, I selected Skinner.  He’s a versatile safety who represents a good value in the middle of round three.  He was available because he’s recovering from a torn pectoral muscle suffered this past February.  Washington wouldn’t need him to be able to contribute immediately.

Rounds 4 through 7

Day three is always a crapshoot, so I’m not going to go through all of my picks individually here.  In general, I think day three is the time for teams to just select the best player on the board, regardless of position, and hope a couple of them work out.  The odds of finding starters on day 3 are very small, generally – if you want some hard, detailed data, you can read my statistical analysis of day 3 from 2020 by clicking here.  The executive summary is that the odds of finding a starter on day three is 20% for round 4, 14% for round 5, 8% for round 6, and 6% for round 7.  Not good.  Note that the odds in rounds 6 and 7 are virtually the same.

Generally speaking, in my four mock draft efforts, I selected alot of guards, corners, and linebackers, and in one draft I was able to pick up University of Houston quarterback Clayton Tune in round 5 (in a non-Hooker draft) as a developmental prospect.

What are your thoughts?  What should Washington do in this year’s draft?  Let me know in the comment section.