Washington Commanders Running Back Usage

May 12, 2023

by David Earl

Kansas City Chiefs Formula

Right off the bat, I understand Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are not in Washington’s offensive room and will not be on the field for Washington in week one. Their offense runs through them, especially Mahomes, but put that aside for now. Let’s look at how the scheme was run during Eric Bieniemy‘s time in Kansas City and how the usage of their running backs could translate to what is currently rostered in Washington. While Andy Reid‘s roots are in the West Coast scheme, he has also adapted well to the new Wide Zone Schemes we see dominate the league today in half-field reads. Andy still has his offense rooted in a short horizontal passing game to spread out the defense, open up running lanes, and set up the deep vertical passing game. It’s a scheme Bill Walsh masterfully ran in the 80s with Joe Montana and the 49ers which has been morphed over the decades by coaches like Mike Shanahan and Reid. In today’s game and with the more mobile quarterback, offenses have become more of a Wide Zone Scheme which cuts the field in half, getting the ball into playmakers’ hands in space while utilizing the Run-Pass-Option (RPO). The Chiefs don’t utilize the RPO as much as other teams because of Patrick Mahomes‘ ability to play within the pocket, but the use of RPOs nearly tripled in 2021 from the 2016 season (11.39% from 4.7% respectively). As the game continues to evolve this style of the scheme seems to have become more than just a trend offense like the Houston Oilers Run-and-Shoot offense in the ’80s. Let’s look at the Chiefs’ offense and how they involved the running backs:

• 2017 and 2018: Kareem Hunt was the 3-down running back leading the backfield in both rushing attempts and pass targets. In 2017 his rushing yards (1,327) accounted for 69% of the team’s total of 1,903 yards averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He also received 48% more of the targets (63 total) than the other running backs (67 combined total) as the group was targeted 130 times that season. Before his release in 2018, Kareem Hunt would have again dominated this role as the lead running back. When averaging out over the remaining 5 games he missed, Kareem Hunt would have totaled 64% of the team’s total rushing yards (1,855) and received 43% of the position group’s total targets (117) in the passing game that season. The offense ranked 6th (415 total) and 1st (565 Total) in offensive scoring.
• 2019: Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy had over 100 rushing attempts while also being equally targeted in the passing game. Without Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs played to the position group’s strength and still finished top 5 (451 total) in offensive scoring.
• 2020: This year saw rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire take over Hunt’s role, with some respectable totals, leading the team in rushing yards (803 yards) and being responsible for 45% of the team’s total (1,799). The remaining running backs accounted for a combined 24% (436 yards) of the total team rushing. While he did receive 28 more receptions (54 total) over Darrell Williams (26 total) and the offense showed a little more balance to this position group, Edwards-Helaire still managed 48% of the team’s total targets (111) to the running backs. After revisiting the 2017 and 2018 seasons and switching focus back to 1 primary running back, this offense still finished top 6 (473 total) in offensive scoring.

What you see under Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy is an adaption of their offense to their player’s strengths while never missing a beat in total team production. Last season not only showed more of the same in scoring production, ranking 1st with 496 total points, but it was featuring a 7th-round rookie running back in Isaiah Pacheco. He led the team with 830 yards rushing which accounted for 42% of the team’s total rushing production (1,970). As the result wasn’t near the total accounted for rushing production of Kareen Hunt’s 69% and 64% in those seasons the 4.9 yards per carry attempt by Pacheco was identical to Hunt’s 2017 rookie season. The separation, however, was Pecheco’s total targets (14) only accounted for 13% of the team’s position group total (109) targets. Jerick McKinnon 71 targets led the unit at a total percentage of 65% by the season’s end. As you see the running back certainly plays an important role within this offense, the Chiefs are not necessarily married to one type of player for this position. They have been able to adapt the offense to their player’s strengths while continuing a highly productive offense every year. What does all this mean for Washington?

Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr.

The first obvious aspect to mention first is the offensive line performance from the 2022 season and the clear differences with Kansas City. The run protection in Kansas City averaged 0.7 more yards per carry (4.7), ranking them 9th in the league, whereas Washington’s 4.0 yards per carry average placed them 28th in the entire league. To add the pass protection saw Kansas City offensive line letting up 1.5 sacks per game (ranked 3rd best) at a 3.58% sack rate while Washington was ranked 25th in the league allowing 2.8 sacks per game at a 7.97% sack rate. There is not only a clear disparity at the quarterback and tight end position between the teams but also the offensive line performance. Time will tell if the additions through free agency and the draft will help improve this unit so let’s focus on how Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr may be used in Eric Bienemy’s scheme.

Last season Brian Robinson Jr accounted for 37% of the team’s total rushing yards (2,143 yards), with 797 yards compared to Antonio Gibson‘s 25%, or 546 yards, as both fell short of 4.0 yards per carry average. Much of that lack of success obviously cannot be solely blamed on the runners considering Washington’s ranking in run blocking. Still, though there may be a concern whether either runner can take the reigns successfully. With that said though, Brian Robinson Jr appears to be the favored lead runner as he is a much more naturally instinctive runner than Gibson. Where Brian seems to excel in that aspect, the passing game tells another story altogether. The former college wide receiver converted into running back, Antonio Gibson, led all running backs with 58 targets which accounted for 48% of this team’s position group total of 121 targets. His hands are reliable have a 79.3% catch rate and a good 7.7 yards per reception. With Brian Robinson collecting only 10% (12 total targets) of this position group’s 121 targets, Gibson is the clear favorite on passing downs.

Breaking it All Down

Taking all these numbers into account for Washington’s running back group, the one outlook for the 2023 season is to use last year’s utilization by the Chiefs. How do I envision this turning out? Let’s assume the offseason moves for the offensive line gives a moderate improvement to run block protection, thereby raising the average from 4.0 yards per carry to 4.3 yards per carry. While the pass blocking may not be greatly improved, Sam Howell‘s mobility combined with Eric Bieniemy’s use of RPO should help this unit’s pass block protection thus improving on last season’s 7.97% sack rate to a degree. Finally, adding the talented wide-receiving core Washington has into the mix, here is a possible stat line for each player thus showing just how they may be used within this scheme:

• Brian Robinson Jr: 868 yards rushing (42% of the team total) and, like Pacheco, receiving 13% of the position group targets (14 targets).
• Antonio Gibson: 56 receptions of 71 targets (65% of position group total) for 431 yards while maintaining roughly 25% of the team’s total rushing yards getting approximately 517 yards on the ground.

Final Calculations Note: Taking the play selections of last year’s Kansas City Chiefs, the final numbers for Robinson Jr and Gibson are tallied from 417 rushing attempts and a total of 109 targets. Using an improved baseline of a 4.3 yards per carry average, I estimate Washington running for a total of 1,793 yards. Allowing further adjustment from the 60:40 (pass-to-run ratio) the Chiefs ran last season, I will estimate a ratio of 55:45 as Ron Rivera will still want some focus on the run. So the final estimates to calculate their potential projected totals come from 2,068 yards (4.3 yards per carry) on 481 rushing attempts but the 109 targets are still a safe number to project for the running back group.

Final Thoughts

I do anticipate a much more dynamic offensive scheme under Eric Bieniemy and, considering the running back room, he will certainly try to emulate last season with the Chiefs. Washington will be better coached with scripted plays being more scheme-sound and adjustments within the game being improved. This receiving core will not only help Sam Howell but both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr as running threats should be more frequent. So as there is plenty of optimism going into week one, here is where reality strikes and the reason behind such modest numbers for Washington’s two featured runners. No defense is going to fear Sam Howell like they do Patrick Mahomes and the tight end room is not going to affect a defensive coordinator’s game plan as Travis Kelce is not walking onto this team with Bieniemy. Then, looking at this offensive line, the improvements along this unit are not strong enough to justify a complete turnaround in performance. Eric Bieniemy is bringing a new energy to this offense and Sam Howell does provide some intriguing potential but the optimism really needs to be tempered heading into the season. I do believe this unit will be improved and, by playing alongside a good defense, this team should remain in the wild-card playoff conversation for most of the season.