Is Sam Howell Positioned for a Breakout Year?

May 24, 2023

by David Earl

3 Year Recap

Washington
Year	Sack %	Rank	Pass Play %	Total Yds/Gm	Scoring Rank
2020	7.46%	24	62.23%	320.6	25
2021	7.25%	23	55.42%	323.6	23
2022	7.97%	25	52.81%	330.3	24

Tme and time again, we have talked about Washington’s offensive line, for good reason. Today I focus on the pass protection aspect and what this means for Sam Howell going onto week 1 of the season. This chart shows where this unit has ranked in sack percentages over the last few years and, while the style of quarterback play certainly plays a role here, even when becoming a run-oriented team the results remained the same. To put it bluntly, this unit has been terrible in this category, but what has been done to rectify this situation? The addition of Andrew Wylie, who sustained his blocks for approximately 2.5 seconds, which is ranked 9th in this metric. While he did allow 9 sacks in 1,093 snaps last season, playing with Patrick Mahomes and his improvising style of play unfortunately doesn’t show in this statistic . Compare that to Samuel Cosmi‘s 5 allowed sacks in 585 snaps and both tackles’ sack rate is fairly close, but it is a deceiving number considering the situation. Wylie is a noticeable upgrade at the right tackle position which now moves Cosmi to the right guard position.  Cosmi’s scouting report discussed how he will struggle against “diverse attacks of NFL edge rushers” was certainly on point. He certainly has the athleticism for the position but his inability to consistently bully the larger defensive lineman may be an ultimate concern so obviously the hope is he makes a similar Erek Flowers development moving inside.

Nick Gates, coming back from a severely broken leg, posted a 98.6 efficiency rating allowing no sacks while playing on 1.015 sacks during the 2020 season. He replaces an often injured Chase Roullier and the turnstiles Washington had to replace him during the last 2 seasons. If Gates returns to his 2020 form and can remain healthy, then this will be a noticeable upgrade. The left side of the line, at the moment, will return Andrew Norwell and Charles Leno Jr., who were both adequate at best (with Leno far more consistent). Is it fair to say Ron Rivera improved the offensive line? Yes, as the additions of Ricky Stromberg (center) and Braeden Daniels (guard/tackle) certainly help improve, if nothing else, the depth this unit lacked last season. Now is it marginally improved? That’s a debated answer by many so that is to be determined but there is an improvement which is certainly a positive.

Offensive Line Improvement Imperative

Kansas City Chiefs (Seasons 2020-2022)
Sack %	Rank	Pass Play %	Total Yds/Gm	Scoring Rank
3.70%	4	62.57%	414.7	6
4.43%	4	62.36%	407.6	4
3.68%	2	61.48%	404.6	1

Philadelphia Eagles (Seasons 2020-2022)
Sack %	Rank	Pass Play %	Total Yds/Gm	Scoring Rank
9.80%	32	62.06%	334.6	26
4.79%	14	50.13%	358.8	12
7.15%	20	50.26%	385.8	2

The Kansas City Chiefs are the obvious bar here not only for their prolific offense and championship foundation, but with Eric Bieniemy being an integral part of this organization. In their last 3 seasons, they ranked no worse than 4th in sack percentage while maintaining one of the best offenses in the NFL and throwing the ball greater than 61% of the time each of those years. Much of this success is surely due to the elite-level play of Patrick Mahomes but, through his improvisational play and creating on the move, the offensive line had to still maintain their blocks efficiently, like the aforementioned Andrew Wylie 2.5 seconds this past season. Rewind back to Super Bowl LV when Mahomes entered that game with a severely depleted offensive line that saw him under pressure 37.5% of the time, sacked 3 times, hurried 11 times, and forced into making bad throws on 15.2% of his pass attempts resulting in a 31-9 loss to the Buccaneers. This clearly shows, even with an elite quarterback, just how important the cohesiveness and efficiency of the offensive line are against playoff-caliber teams.

When looking at the efficiency of the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line in sack percentage, you see a team that made the adjustments based on the results. As far as pass blocking, they have been either middle of the road or bottom third in the league and they had to adapt. In the 2020 season, heir offense was pass-heavy, at 62%, which resulted in a league-worst 9.80% sack rate and the 26th-ranked scoring offense. In the following seasons, the Eagles utilized their their run blocking strength and the versatility of Jalen Hurts to limiting their run-pass-ratio even more. As their sack percentage still was an issue, they devised an offensive scheme that worked off the running game thus netting them the 2nd best-scoring offense last season and a trip to the Super Bowl.

Heading into this season with a mobile and athletic quarterback in Sam Howell, Washington will need to obviously devise a scheme and gameplan similar to what is discussed above. Last season Carson Wentz provided arm strength and limited mobility while Taylor Heinicke had the mobility but lacked the arm. Sam Howell provides this team with both and it’s a luxury they have not had since Robert Griffin III. It’s not to say his arm emulates Mahomes and his athleticism at the level of Hurts, but he has the prerequisite tools for not only today’s NFL offenses but Eric Bieniemy’s scheme. Howell has the aggressiveness and arm strength to attack tight window throws, has shown a more than adequate deep ball accuracy, and can more than functionally move in the pocket.  That having been said, his biggest concern is consistency, which his scouting report  suggests.

Let’s Look Ahead: Comparative Analysis

	Run/Pass Option (RPO)						PlayAction  (PA)		Total % of Offensive Plays
Player	Plays	Yds	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Pass Att	Pass Yds	RPO%	PA%
Mahomes	91	713	86	692	4	21	143	1394	13.9%	22.1%
Herbert	41	328	41	328	0	0	188	1435	5.9%	26.9%
Hurts	148	1156	122	1068	21	88	133	1094	31.1%	28.9%
Jackson	110	919	72	587	35	332	99	814	32.8%	30.4%

It is no secret what the NFL is today and how these offenses utilize the level of mobility they have in their franchise quarterbacks. The chart above, focused on the 2022 season, is a small sample size of how Sam Howell’s peers at the position are utilized. The elite do it all, from Patrick Mahomes to the most athletically-gifted quarterback in the league, Lamar Jackson. As far as Lamar goes, his growth as a quarterback since the 2020 season is interesting. In the 2020 season, his decisions to pass vs run in an RPO situation was a 1:1 ratio but last season he turned that into a 2:1 ratio (pass over run decisions). The development of Lamar into more of a quarterback was very clear. The athleticism and above-average arm talent Sam Howell possesses makes him an ideal fit for the RPO and PA game in today’s NFL. Although Scott Turner did incorporate the RPO game last season, the offense was highly inconsistent because, what Carson Wentz lacked mobility he made up for in-arm strength.  Taylor Heinicke had the opposite skillset. Neither player was fully equipped for the scheme type of NFL offenses today and it truly made Scott’s offense one-dimensional far more than dynamic.

	Run/Pass Option (RPO)						PlayAction (PA)		Total % of Offensive Plays
Team	Plays	Yds	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Pass Att	Pass Yds	RPO %	PA %
Wentz	39	221	34	215	2	6	65	431	13.0%	23.6%
Heinicke	44	340	38	338	3	2	75	658	15.8%	29.0%

Like Justin Herbert, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke ran very few times off the RPO but Washington’s lack of an effective running game limited the efficiency of these designed RPO schemes.  The LA Chargers ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per carry average, at 3.8, but they still produced a 12th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL off the arm of Justin Herbert.  Simply put, neither Wentz nor Heinicke are the type of franchise quarterbacks to compensate for one aspect of the offense’s deficiencies as is someone like Justin Herbert. Is that to say Sam Howell can be just like Herbert? The quick surface answer is obviously no, but time will ultimately define that answer. What Sam Howell does possess is the arm strength of Carson Wentz and a better athletic profile of Taylor Heinicke, which is what intrigues many today. Sam can clearly be more dynamic running the RPO than Herbert with his athletic profile which feeds into the play-action aspect of the game.

It’s unreasonable to believe Sam Howell can be Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson.  However, while he doesn’t have  Herbert’s arm talent he brings a much better athletic profile. That now leaves Jalen Hurts and before Hurts became the NFL runner-up for the MVP he carried many similar questions as does Sam Howell. Jalen Hurts was not regarded as having great arm talent and was not an elusive runner either. While there are some still noticeable mechanical issues with Hurts’ arm, the Eagles did a great job isolating his strengths and then reframed their entire offense around those strengths. They adapted from a 62% pass-heavy offense in the 2020 season, averaging 334 total yards per game, which was ranked26th in scoring, to last season’s 2nd-ranked offense, which had a 50% pass-to-run offense averaging 385 yards per game. This recognition and adjustment in offensive philosophy will be crucial heading into the 2023 season when evaluating Sam Howell. As I previously stated in my Running Back Usage column, there is no doubt Eric Bieniemy will make the proper adjustments with, I’d guess, a 55% passing-concentrated offensive scheme as opposed to his 61% pass-heavy scheme last season in Kansas City. So how could that possibly look this season if Sam Howell is the full-season starter?

Sam Howell 2023 Projections
Total Passing Line
Comp.	Att.	Yards	Comp%	TD
355	573	3,799	62%	30
Play Action (PA) Plays
Comp.	Att.	Yards	Comp%	TD
94	152	1006	62%	8
Run/Pass Option (RPO) Plays
Comp.	Att.	Yards	Comp%	TD
69	111	738	62%	6
RushAtt		Rushing Yards		TD
12		50		3

Arriving at Calculations: I took a rough estimate between what Washington and Kansas City ran last season then took the total plays and assumed a 55% pass-heavy scheme. In his game against Dallas Sam ended with a 58% completion percentage, so I took into account his 64% college career number and went a bit lower as a reasonable percentage. As far as the touchdowns and total passing yards I pulled from Geno Smith‘s stat line of 10.7 yards per completion and a 5.2 touchdown percentage. The reason for picking this stat line is Seattle’s offensive line sack rate was similar to Washington’s last season and Geno Smith‘s is a reasonable bar to choose considering the skill position players at the wide receiver position. In terms of RPO rushing attempts, I don’t see Howell choosing to run as often as Hurts out of the RPO, but he most certainly will attempt more than Mahomes’ 4 rushing attempts. Again this is a modest prediction and Howell could very well have a breakout year similar to Hurts, but it’s doubtful that it will be at the same MVP level, especially considering Washington’s offensive line. What expectations do you have for Howell?

Statistical Charts Data Collected From:

Pro Football Reference

Team Rankings