Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Josh Harris, Sam Howell

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May 31, 2023

by David Earl

Just a Little on Josh Harris and Sam Howell

After scouring the Twitterverse and seeing dated but still relevant topics circulating about Washington, I decided to have a general discussion in this week’s column – sort of a gauge of what the fanbase is talking about regarding the Washington Redskins/FT/Commanders. I bring a more collaborative piece on what has been said involving Josh Harris and what his priorities should be weighed against what the fans want from Harris. Also, as the excitement of Dan Snyder being bought out is captivating the fans so is the new starting quarterback Sam Howell. Here, I’ll go in a different direction than most in looking at his probability of success based on Washington’s history of drafting late-round quarterbacks.

New Ownership

Josh Harris has the kind of uphill battle that many new ownership groups don’t typically face. These last 24 years saw Dan Snyder tear down a strong organization to its very knees by:

Needless to say, Dan Snyder may not be the absolute worst owner in all of sports as there were far more despicable owners, but his name is near the top. In fact, his time with the organization should been a documentary gem for one of these streaming platforms how about,”Golden Era to Dark Ages: An Owner’s Poisonous Affect”?

But I digress, as this is no longer about the ineptitude of Dan Snyder but the hopeful professionalism and leadership of Josh Harris. While the battle among fans is the priorities of Harris and his ownership group, nothing is more important than repairing the negative image Dan Snyder created, which brought shame and dishonor to lows many thought couldn’t be reached. Harris now needs to legitimize an organization, both business and football operations, that Dan delegitimized over the past 24 years. This road will surely take time and, most likely, a complete house cleaning that very well may include Ron Rivera and Jason Wright. In fact, my ideal start is at Harris’ first press conference he introduces the new President of Football Operations and then instructs all reporters to direct all football-related questions to him. He should state that his evaluation has already begun and that the next moves going forward involving this football team on the field will be finalized through him and him alone.

One aspect of Harris is he has never appeared to be a micro-manager trying to make personnel moves for his other professional teams. Two prime examples are when he allowed Sam Heinke to follow through with the controversial “The Process” with the Philadelphia 76ers and didn’t hesitate to replace the New Jersey Devils General Manager when the team was not making the improvements to win. He holds the people put in place to make the proper team decisions accountable and instead of making the decisions on players and coaches he simply replaces those in charge of those decisions. He seems to understand how this process must work for a winning organization which has shown thus far. The 76ers have been perennial contenders for the last several years and the Devils are one of the top young teams in the NHL. He is truly the opposite of Dan Snyder and while the new ownership of Josh Harris may not guarantee a championship, he does bring a high probability of relevance back to Washington.

As far as the possibility of a Commander rebrand: that is absolutely on the fanbase’s wish list. Let’s be very clear to those who actually like/love this new name and feel a rebrand is such a low priority – yes, the brand matters to many. It’s not a trivial thought in which fans are just being petty and childish in their stances on the name. Go to the loyal fan bases of the Packers, Bears, Eagles, and tell them those name will be changing.  See what happens in that situation. It isn’t just about changing but the new rebranded name; it would have zero ties to team history in any way except for the color scheme. The pushback would be relentless and, in some cases, possibly hostile in even discussing this possibility. If Washington’s new rebrand was along the lines of Warriors or (Red) Hogs then yes time and winning will help ease the many Redskins loyalists into warming up to the new branding of the team. Unfortunately, the Commanders name has nothing to do with this team’s history and isn’t even the best reflection of the military as a Unit or Platoon is not made up of Commanders but is led by a single Commander (titles vary among the branches of the Military). Having a 53-team roster of Commanders is not exactly representative of the Sergeants or Seamen that comprise these units. In fact, many of us will tell you horror stories of some rather terrible Commanders, but that’s for another column.

The point is that there’s an attachment to the legacy of a name like Redskins which should have been followed up with something more cohesive to the history of the team. The name that could have been outside the box enough and still pulled some tie of Native American culture like the Eagle, Bear, and so on would have been (Red) Wolves. Regardless of what name you desired, the Commanders is just not the rebrand this organization should have done. It has seemed forced and uninspired since day one of its release. To those who say “We were the Braves before Redskins” and it was fine, that’s the absolute definition of a false equivalency. This organization was the Braves for like 5 minutes (1 year for the literal types) compared to the eternity, 84 years, of the Washington Redskins, so stop with the comparison. It’s a ridiculous statement. I’m not trying to disparage those who have come to grips with the name and fully embraced this rebrand but the fact remains it is a forced and terrible name in most fans’ eyes, and it also leaves the stain of Dan Snyder forever engrained on this organization. I personally believe a rebrand must happen, but my top priority for this new ownership group is to recover from Synder’s wretched time here and make Washington a legitimate organization that players, coaches, and staff personnel want to actually play/work for.

Sam Howell: A 5th-Round Gem?

 

Many have done the rounds on Sam Howell, such as Mark Bullock on building an offense around Sam Howell and whether he could be positioned for a breakout season under Eric Bieniemy.  How about a different route? In the history of Washington football, there has been a mix of some hits in the early rounds of the draft for quarterbacks to some who were just absolute busts. One of the all-time greats, Slinging Sammy Baugh, was drafted in 1937 and finished a Hall of Fame career to probably the biggest bust in Washington history coming with the selection of Heath Shuler drafted in 1994.  He lost his spot to the 1994 7th-round selection Gus Frerotte two years later.

Speaking of Gus, just how many 4th-round and later quarterbacks have not only been drafted but also had some level of career success? There have been a total of 52 quarterbacks drafted in Washington’s history and 37 (71% of the total drafted) were drafted in the 4th round or later. The most notable of this group has to be, of course, Mark Rypien, who was drafted in 1986 in round 6 (146th overall pick). Mark led one of the most potent offenses in the Super Bowl for the 1991 championship team, and the last title for the Redskins and Joe Gibbs. Marred by criticism for not being able to come up in big games throughout his career, Mark took that next step on one of the most balanced teams ever built in the modern Super Bowl and the rest is history.

Then the man who never played a down for Washington in Charlie Conerly, drafted in 1945.  He had his rights traded to the New York Giants in 1948 where he won the offensive Rookie of the Year award. The trade was a result of his returning from WWII service and Sammy Baugh was already established as their quarterback at that time. How could we forget the most recent of late-round selections in Kirk Cousins in the 2012 draft (4th round) as the 102 overall selection? He would subsequently take over from Robert Griffin III and began to set new organizational passing records during his tenure. He too had that Mark Rypien critique of never showing up in the big game, fair or not, but has continued a productive career in Minnesota.

As a whole, of the 37 quarterbacks drafted by Washington in the late rounds, seven would complete 5 or more years total, five had 2 or more Pro Bowl selections. One, Mark Rypien, won a championship for Washington and the other, Charlie Conerly, would win 1 for the Giants. Of these quarterbacks, 27 of them never entered a season as the primary starter, meaning that 37% – i.e., 10 total – of these selected quarterbacks made some level of contributions to the NFL. For more of a deep dive in numbers comparison and specific player stats view this link.

What does this show for Howell in just looking at this organization’s history of drafting late-round quarterbacks? He has a 37% chance of making some level of contribution to the NFL, which is probably obvious without the percentage. Looking at the playoff turnout rate of these drafted quarterbacks, only 7 of these players would see time as a starter in the playoffs, with 2 of them winning a championship. For an unscientific approach here the probability of Howell starting in a playoff game is 13% and actually winning a championship is a 3% chance. Of course, far more goes into this, but just looking at the surface of Washington’s success rate in drafting late-round NFL quarterbacks, Howell has not just a chance in being a solid option for this franchise as a starting quarterback, but his excuses will also be limited having some of the weapons around him this season. The obvious potential Achilles heel for Howell and this offense is going to be this offensive line.