Washington Week 2 Opponent: Denver Broncos

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June 30, 2023

by David Earl

Denver Broncos Offseason

The Denver Broncos’ offseason was highlighted by the hiring of Sean Payton, who is not only tasked to orchestrate a rebound from a disappointing 5-12 season in 2022, but also to get Russell Wilson back on track. Wilson’s performance was well below his career standard, as he went from 64.8% to a 60.5% completion percentage with a 2.3% interception percentage and a career-low 3.3% TD percentage.  Wilson also dropped below a 90 quarterback rating for the first time in his career in 2022, with a total QBR below 40. The return on investment for Denver was just simply bad – the question is whether Wilson is too scheme dependent, or whether was he simply a reflection of terrible coaching? Surely that will be answered this season for sure. The following are Denver’s offseason moves that will hopefully help to contribute to the turnaround of both the team as a whole and their star quarterback:

As far as their draft, the Broncos were limited in picks due to the Wilson trade, but they did will with their first two. They were able to pick up wide receiver Marvin Mims with the 63rd selection overall in round 3. Mims is a deep threat who will compliment both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.  They also drafted linebacker Drew Sanders with the 67th overall pick in round 3, who is known to be disruptive and who some feel is a steal at that spot. Overall, the Denver Broncos had one of the more productive offseasons in the NFL, but will that translate in the win-loss column?

Washington Defense vs Broncos Offense

The Broncos’ offensive line ranked 17th in yards per attempt (4.4) but 30th in sack percentage (9.94%), with Wilson being sacked 55 times last season. As a result, they had the lowest points-per-game average (16.9) in the league and ranked 28th in TDs per game average (1.7). They immediately took steps to impr,ove these numbers by signing guard Ben Powers, who allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 13 quarterback pressures in over 1,000 snaps played which all placed him among the best in the league. Also, Denver improved the right tackle position by adding Mike McGlinchey, who was ranked in the top 10 in his position in run-blocking grade and fewest quarterback pressures with at least 1,000 snaps played. While the wide receiver group in Denver is talented and a potential nightmare to cover collectively, the wild card heading into week 2 is running back Javonte Williams. Recovering from a torn ACL and LCL in his knee, it is doubtful Washington faces a 100% physically ready player (if at all) and his replacement, Samaje Perine, is not nearly as dynamic. Knowing how important the running back play is in Sean Payton’s offense, this is a distinct advantage for the Washington defense unless they sign a player like Kareem Hunt.

As opposed to last week‘s column, in which I mentioned how Washington’s defense can attack more aggressively against the run, the adverse exists heading into this matchup versus Denver. Payton will adjust accordingly with Wilson and his wide receivers to counter that aggression so Jack Del Rio will need to be more calculating than aggressive this week. The Bronco’s improved offensive line will afford a mobile quarterback like Wilson more time for his progressions in the passing game while producing running lanes to scramble so discipline in the secondary and linebackers will be important. With that said, it’s all going to boil down to whether Wilson can successfully execute Sean’s scheme and, if he cannot, whether Payton can make the necessary offensive adjustments to his quarterback. So assuming they do work cohesively together, considering the potentially weakened state of Denver’s running game and the lack of a true pass-catching running back, the play of Washington’s “Buffalo Nickel” role becomes vital. In conclusion, this defense should be able to take advantage of a less dynamic running game without a 100% Javonte Williams and make Wilson uncomfortable in the pocket.

Matchup Edge: Washington

Washington Offense vs Broncos Defense

The Broncos’ secondary stars, cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons, are two of the best players in the league at their respective position and may be the strength of the defense. While Denver’s 2022 defense ranked 18th in pass completions against (64.79%), they were ranked 7th in passer rating (83.1) against. As far as the pass rush, that was a much different story, as the Broncos have plenty of unproven edge rushers behind Randy Gregory. This showed last season, as Denver finished 26th in generating quarterback pressure, with 5.62% and 2.1 sacks per game, which was ranked 23rd. The defensive front was much more effective against the run, finishing 11th in yards per attempt, at 4.3, and 10th in yards per game, at 109.8. The addition of Zach Allen, formerly from Arizona, will certainly give a boost to their run defense.

This week may not be set up like the game against Arizona where Washington find themselves in a heavily favorable matchup, as much of the 2022 Broncos’ defense did suffer due to an inefficient offense. The Broncos’ secondary will be a strength against Washington’s offensive strength, which is the wide receivers group, so some may see this as a pick ’em matchup.  This week the running backs will need to earn their money in order to open up misdirection and play action passes. This is a week when Sam Howell could very well find himself making decisions that could be costly, especially with Patrick Surtain III roaming the backfield. Even though Denver’s pass rush is not a true threat, Washington’s 25th-ranked offensive line is quarterback sack percentage, at 7.97% and 25th in sacks allowed per game at 2.8, so that does not equate to a positive.

Matchup Edge: Push

Conclusion

Yes, I give a push in the final matchup because Howell and his development are absolutely key for this week 2 matchup. Every indication, based on work ethic and execution of the offense schematically, thus far in OTAs is that he most likely will take that next step. I am not convinced as of yet though as any contact and true defensive pressure has yet to be applied. I agree that his college tape is mixed, but it shows plenty of upsides for the next level.  Washington saw that mix in his play in week 17 against Dallas, but his inconsistencies may not be ironed out by week 2 (if at all). This game will probably be the most intriguing one in the first quarter of the season, not only for Howell to see how well Russell Wilson works within Sean Payton’s offensive scheme. I am one to believe Payton will adjust his system accordingly and Wilson will be just fine as the Broncos push for a playoff run this season. The matchups on the field lean toward a convincing win by Denver or a tight game in the 4th quarter. The early line of -3.5 in favor of Denver speaks volumes, which is why I can see Washington covering this line but Denver winning 20-18.