How long will it take to turn Washington around?

July 3, 2023

by Steve Thomas

With Josh Harris coming into town later this month to displace the current reigning despot, Little Danny Snyder, the big-picture, fundamental question for most fans is how long it will take for the Redskins Washington Football Team Commanders Washington to reverse course and become an perennial contender.  I’m not aiming for the Super Bowl, mind you – perish the thought – but simply a franchise who is in the race and competitive on a regular basis.  That’s not too much to ask, is it?  I’m not going to do a bunch of stats and analysis here, but suffice it to say that Washington’s streak of being essentially out of the hunt is one of the longest, if not the longest, in the entire league.  One could argue that the Redskins were moderately competitive during Joe Gibbs’ second tenure from 2004 to 2007, but beyond that, it’s been big piles of dog doo-doo interspersed with the occasional wild card appearance.

All of that is about to change.  Hopefully.

The arrival of Harris brings hope to a despondent fanbase in the form of a fairly solid history of turning around both the NBA’s 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils.  Neither one of those teams has actually won a championship, mind you, but they are competitive, and beggars can’t be choosers.  What’s been going through my mind is what Harris is going to have to do to change Washington’s fortunes, and how long that will take.  The truth is that Harris isn’t going to simply waltz in and fix this mess just by showing up.  It’s going to take time and multiple different moves to right this ship: front office, coach, quarterback, offensive line, and running back.  Let’s take a look into each one.

Front office

I’m sorry to burst anyone’s bubble on this, but Jason Wright isn’t the answer.  It’s been amateur hour from day one from him.  The upside is that the team hasn’t had any new major scandals under his leadership, but that’s a low bar of success.  Most major public events have been poorly organized, and by all accounts, the team’s finances continue to be in tank.  In my view, he’s added very little to this organization other than simply not being Bruce Allen.  Beyond that, I can’t think of much positive resulting from his tenure.  Current rumors are that Harris is going to give Wright a chance in the early days before making the move, which is in line with his history of ownership with the 76ers and the Devils.  All this is going to accomplish is to delay the inevitable.  My recommendation is to replace Wright on day one.  If he did so, the team could be on the road to respectability immediately; instead, it’s probably going to be a year before he’s out.   Then, the new team president is going to have his or her own ideas for the structure of the office, and that’s not an immediate fix either.  To me, fixing the business half of the front office is probably a one year process, but waiting to dismiss Wright probably means two years.

Coach/GM and quarterback

For better or for worse, Ron Rivera’s fate is tied to that of Sam Howell.  Perhaps Rivera’s single biggest failure as the commander-in-chief of Washington’s football operations has been his absolute butchering of the quarterback room.  The team has been through a ridiculous number of quarterbacks during Rivera’s tenure, with none of them coming close to being the franchise-caliber player that the team needs in order to be a contender.  To me, this is simple: if Sam Howell works out, this advances the timeline for competitiveness by multiple years.  If he doesn’t, though, then (1) Rivera is going to be gone after this coming season, and (2) Washington’s recovery period is probably three years, because the new staff will need to find a new franchise quarterback candidate, then developer him.   Going along with that is a need to do better in the draft – some of Rivera’s draft priorities have been downright bizarre and unhelpful.  I suspect that replacing Rivera will mean hiring a real general manager, and then a separate head coach.  That’s the future, most likely.

The odds are against Howell becoming “the guy”, for sure.  If it works out, the Rivera stays and the quarterback position is solved immediately, although Rivera’s strange drafts will likely continue.  If not, though, we’re probably looking at a 3 year recovery period.

Offensive line

The second-worst thing Rivera has done to this team behind quarterback is his handling of the offensive line.  Washington went from having one of the better lines in the league, with multiple Pro Bowlers, to having one with league-average, short-term players at best.  This entire offensive line is going to have to be rebuilt, and that’s probably going to take a focus on the draft for multiple years.  If this doesn’t happen, no amount of talent and growth in the quarterback position, be it Howell or a future top draft pick, is going to matter.  Unfortunately, this might be the toughest problem to fix, and it’s going to probably take a new general manager who’s willing to pursue the offensive line in a way that Rivera has thusfar either been unwilling or unable.  No matter how you look at it, dragging this position group not only into the realm of basic respectability, but into the universe of elite, is going to take time and a dedication to the problem.  I view this as at least a three-year fix.

Running back

Yes, Washington currently has a couple of prospects, but the fanbase appears to be overrating the running backs on the roster.  Neither Antonio Gibson nor Brian Robinson have thusfar shown a real indication that either one can be an elite back who consistently averages 4.5 yards per carry or more.  Sure, the team could use them to cobble together a plus-level running back room, and a talented, successful offensive line will help, but I suspect that it’s going to take at least one more high draft pick.  I think this is a big need, and it’s going to take one, or perhaps two, more seasons at most to get it done.

So how long is all of this going to take?

In some ways, Sam Howell doing well enough to allow Rivera to stick around for another year is almost a detriment.  After taking a look at all of these areas, I think a minimum of three years is most likely for a major turnaround.  Any less time than that would mean that everything go right, and that’s not reality.  Personally, I don’t think Rivera is the ultimate answer, and no matter what else happens, he’s going to need to be replaced in order to get the roster into elite shape.  Rivera has shown that he’s simply incapable of getting the job done.  Harris’ ownership tenure of the 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils has taken this same path – Harris took slow, measured steps, and it was a bit of time before those franchises were turned around.  That’s probably going to be what happens here in Washington.  It may be a few years, but better days are likely ahead.