Washington Week 3 Opponent: Buffalo Bills

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July 7, 2023

by David Earl

Buffalo Bills Offseason

Last season the Buffalo Bills had a strong Super Bowl contending team that couldn’t overcome injuries and turnovers to make that championship run. Heading into the 2023 offseason already being hindered by the salary cap, the loss of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds wasn’t exactly how they’d scripted it either. Still, Buffalo’s subsequent moves keep them in that contender’s role once again as they continue to chase the Kansas City Chiefs. While they lose a good coverage linebacker in Edmunds, they gained in pass rush by signing edge rusher Leonard Floyd as his 29 sacks are the 10th most since the 2020 season.  Floyd will play with a young edge rusher, Gregory Rousseau, who finished his second season with 8 sacks and ranked 29th according to PFF. Where the Bills defense will step back a bit in coverage grades, they improve on pass rush.

Through the draft, they replaced a key loss in guard Rodger Saffold with the highest-rated player at the respective position with Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence after adding solid depth in free agent guard Connor McGovern. They also added to a potent passing attack in the form of the top rookie passing tight end, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid.  Buffalo’s offense is only restricted by Josh Allen‘s league-leading turnovers – Allen’s 14 interception was the 3rd-most in the league. So how does this and the rest of the Bills’ offseason translate into this week 3 matchup?

Washington Defense vs Bills Offense

The loss of running back Devin Singletary and his 4.6 yards per carry average will be replaced with 2nd-year runner James Cook, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry average in 5 games started last season. While unproven over a full season, Cook, who was a star at the University of Georgia, averaged 6.5 yards per carry average in a battle-tested SEC and don’t let his minimal use in the passing game deceive you either. His scouting report shows him to be a player with steady hands, which was evident last season for Buffalo, during which he caught 21 passes off 32 targets in a limited role (starting 5 games). Cook in a full-time starting role and Dalton Kincaid should help bolster an already strong passing game which averaged 11.5 yards per completion, which was ranked 3rd. While this 3rd-ranked rushing attack, 5.1 yards per carry average, is certainly anchored by Josh Allen and his 6.1 yards per carry, the Bills offense is susceptible to turnovers through Josh Allen and his league-leading 19 total turnovers. The way for Washington to capitalize here is through pressure.  Washington had a sack percentage of 7.72%, ranked 6th, and forced ill-advised throws against Washington’s secondary, allowing a 59.9% completion percentage, which was ranked 2nd. Unfortunately, Washington’s 15th-rank run defense, which allowed 4.4 yards per carry average, will faced one of the better rushing offensive lines in the league. Buffalo’s offensive line produced a 5.1 yards-per-carry average and recorded 133.5 total rushing yards per game while only committing to the run at 40.56% each game. Defensively Washington should be competitive early on but the offensive weapons combined with Josh Allen‘s legs will ultimately win the day, as asking Sam Howell to keep pace is an unreasonable expectation, at least as of today.

Matchup Edge: Buffalo Bills

Washington Offense vs Bills Defense

Let’s just cut right to the chase here: what Buffalo lost in pass coverage with Edmunds gone, they improved on a pass rush that graded 19th last season in sack percentage at 6.47% and 13th in sacked per game, with 2.5 per game. This unit will face a Washington offensive line unit that made minimal improvements, gave up a sack percentage of 7.97%, and 2.8 sacks per game, both ranked 25th. With the Bills’ loss of Tremaine Edmunds combined with a more aggressive pass rush, Eric Bieniemy could utilize Curtis Samuel and the running game to create open passing lanes. This will be imperative in this matchup as the Bills’ defense allowed just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, ranked 5th, and allowed an opposing passer rating of just 80.6, ranked 2nd in the NFL. The silver lining in this matchup is Buffalo is ranked 23rd in touchdown percentage, at 63.16%, and 19th in passing 1st downs given up at 57.66%. Considering Washington’s wide receiver group has plenty of big play ability, these particular numbers actually play into Washington’s hands; however, that will obviously depend on Sam Howell‘s decision-making.

Matchup Edge: Buffalo Bills

Conclusion

This will be Washington’s first real true test against a Super Bowl contender, and unfortunately they will be overmatched. There are just too few scenarios in that Washington can win, especially with such an inexperienced quarterback. I believe Washington’s defense will show up and play well early, and keep the game interesting heading into halftime, provided Sam Howell plays a clean half. The defensive front could very well force Josh Allen into a costly early turnover, which he’s been prone to do, and set up an early score giving energy to the defense. When the rubber meets the road and Washington heads into the 4th quarter, Bills’ rushing attack and overall stingy defense against the day will overwhelm Washington. They will dip below .500 and go 1-2 after a 31-18 loss at home, and will carry no momentum against the defending NFC Champions and Super Bowl runner-up Philadelphia Eagles.