2023 Season Preview – Part 2

July 11, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

Part 1 of my new Season Preview series looked at five players not named Sam Howell who should be key players for a successful season in 2023. Now, in part 2, I will discuss the schedule overall and look at the first half of the games. For individual game previews, please check out David Earl’s posts.

The 2023 schedule is not a friendly one. The NFC East plays the AFC East and the NFC West, which leads to the four NFC East teams all placing in the top 10 of toughest strength of schedule based on 2022 season results. The Eagles are first, the Cowboys and Giants are tied for fourth, and the Commanders come in at eighth.

The Commanders also have three long-distance away games against the Broncos, Seahawks, and Rams. Teams that travel cross-country are typically at a disadvantage and losses are more frequent than not. Also, teams traveling to Denver also face the challenge of playing at a high altitude. Washington’s fourth place finish put the Bears and Falcons on the schedule, but both of those teams figure to be improved over last season.

I’m going to break down the season into two halves. The first half covers weeks one through eight and the second half covers weeks nine through eighteen.

The first half of the season, at first glance, appears to be the easier of the two. The problem is that Ron Rivera-led teams often start slow and finish strong. That could be a recipe for failure this year with the back half of the schedule featuring some very tough matchups.

The First Half

Week	H/A	Opponent	2022 Finish
1	Home	Cardinals	32
2	Away	Broncos	23
3	Home	Buffalo	5
4	Away	Eagles	2
5	Home	Bears	19
6	Away	Falcons	27
7	Away	Giants	13
8	Home	Eagles	2

On paper based on 2022 results, the four most winnable games in the first half of the season are against the Cardinals, Broncos, Falcons, and Bears, but even those present some challenges.

The Cardinals game seems to be very winnable, especially since quarterback Kyler Murray will not be back from his late 2022 season injury.  This will be the first home game under the new owners, so the stadium should be rocking, giving the Commanders a distinct home field advantage.

As mentioned before, the Broncos game is in Denver, which gives them a significant advantage. Also, Sean Peyton is now the head coach, who by himself is a worthy opponent, as he has seen much success as a head coach. Those factors make this game not so certain.

The challenge in the Bears game is that it comes on a Thursday night after playing the Eagles in Philadelphia on Sunday. Last year the Commanders eked out a 12-7 victory over the Bears but that game was a pivotal point in the season for the Bears when they started playing better on offense. The Bears overhauled their roster in the offseason and added talent across the board, including D.J. Moore at wide receiver. This game will be a tougher contest than last year.

The Falcons game could feature Taylor Heinicke playing against his former team. Desmond Ridder is expected to compete for the starting quarterback spot. The Falcons were also aggressive in the offseason in order to upgrade the roster talent. Personally, I’m not sold on Arthur Smith as a head coach, as they have finished 7-10 for two consecutive years. Both their offense and defense have been ranked in the bottom half of the league both years. This should be a winnable game for Washington.

The other four games will feature the Eagles twice, the Bills at home and the Giants away. In the overall league standings, the Eagles finished at number 2, the Bills at number 5, and the Giants at number 13.

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones seems to only beat one team consistently, Washington, although the Commanders managed to squeak out a tie in one game last season. This is the one team against whom the Commanders need to really improve their play.

The Commanders matched move favorably against the Eagles, splitting their two games last season. The Eagles spent draft capital on defense to match up better against Washington’s offense.

The last time Washington played the Bills in Buffalo in 2021, it ended in a crushing 43-21 loss. The major highlight was a 73 yard touchdown on a screen pass from Heinicke to Antonio Gibson. The Bills had jumped out to a 21-0 lead at that point and Washington was never really in the game.

So, at this point we have two winnable games, two toss-ups and four games against difficult opponents. The reality is that the Commanders need to start strong and they need to use their advantage of Eric Bieniemy and the new offense he was brought to Washington to implement. Teams will be looking at old Chiefs tapes trying to figure out what Washington may be doing on offense. They will have an element of surprise for a few weeks before teams have enough visual evidence to decipher tendencies.

The best possible outcome is that Washington wins all the games against the weaker opponents and splits the game against the stronger opponents. That would put them at 6-2 going into the second half of the season. At the opposite end of the spectrum, would being going 2-6 to start the season. If that happens, the thought would be how long Rivera lasts before the new ownership pulls the plug.

My best guess is based on Bieniemy being able to light a fire under the whole team and providing a scheme that allows Howell to operate effectively. If that happens, the team should be at 5-3 going into the second half.

In Part 3, I will share my thoughts on the second half of the season.