Washington’s quarterback history and whether Sam Howell can make it

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July 17, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Other than a new owner and a new stadium, what the Redskins Washington Football Team Commanders Washington needs the most is a franchise quarterback.  The team has been through an enormous number of potential candidates since Mark Rypien left the Redskins 30 years ago.  Rypien’s last year in Washington was 1993, but he got hurt in the second week of the season, missed a big chunk of the year, and was never the same.  Therefore, if we consider 1992 to be his last full season, Washington has gone 30 years without a franchise quarterback.  The team has had a total of 35 quarterbacks who started at least one game between 1993 and 2022.  Before we dive into Howell, I’d like to take a moment to put into proper context just how challenging Washington’s hunt for a franchise quarterback has been.  In that spirit, below are a few interesting stats about the team’s quarterbacks over the past thirty years:

Most starts: Kirk Cousins (57, 2012 – 2017); Jason Campbell (52, 2006 – 2009); Gus Frerotte (46, 1994 – 1998); Robert Griffin III (35, 2012 – 2014); Mark Brunell (33, 2004 – 2006); Brad Johnson (27, 1999 – 2000); Taylor Heinicke (27, 2020 – 2022)

Longest streak of starts: Kirk Cousins (48); Jason Campbell (34); Gus Frerotte (30); Brad Johnson (25); Mark Brunell (24); Robert Griffin III (15)

Quarterbacks with at least 8 or more starts and a passing rating over 90 in a season: Brad Johnson (1999: 16 / 90); Robert Griffin III (2012: 15 starts /102.4); Kirk Cousins (2015: 16 starts / 101.6; 2016: 16 / 97.2; 2017: 16 / 93.9); Case Keenum (2019: 8 / 91.3)

Pro Bowl seasons: Gus Frerotte (1996); Brad Johnson (1999); Robert Griffin III (2012); Kirk Cousins (2016)

All Pro seasons: None

Quarterbacks with 5 or less starts: Tim Hasselbeck (5, 2003); Kyle Allen (4, 2020); Danny Wuerffel (4, 2002); John Friez (4, 1994); Rich Gannon (4, 1993); Josh Johnson (3, 2018); John Beck (3, 2011); Todd Collins (3, 2007); Jeff Hostetler (3, 1997); Cary Conklin (2, 1993); Garrett Gilbert (1, 2021); Ryan Fitzpatrick (1, 2021); Mark Sanchez (1, 2018)

The big-picture takeaway is that it has been tough sledding from a quarterback perspective.  The only true major stretches of long-term quarterback stability over the last three decades were Gus Frerotte in 1996 and 1997, Jason Campbell from 2007 to 2009, and three seasons of Kirk Cousins from 2015 to 2017.  A few others have had some fleeting success – Brad Johnson might’ve legitimately succeeded had a certain undersized, tyrannical dictator not butted in and decided to make terrible some terrible decisions instead of butting out.

As sad as it is, the highwater mark for Washington’s quarterbacks since 1993 was Kirk Cousins between 2015 and 2017.  The fact that Taylor Heinicke is #7 on the list of quarterbacks with the most starts should tell you all you need to know.  I’m not going to compare this history with that of other teams such as the Green Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots over the same time frame, because we all know what would look like.   You get the point.

Yikes.  You’re welcome.

That brings us neatly along to Sam Howell, who is apparently next man up on the burning ferris wheel that has been Washington’s quarterback situation.  We’ve covered him pretty extensively here at The Hog Sty, both on the air and in writing, including in my quarterback position group breakdown last month (click here to read).  I’m not going to rehash old ground here, so instead, I’d like to set some expectations and a possible plan of action necessary for Howell to reach that elusive plateau.

First, let’s talk parameters.  What is a “franchise quarterback”, anyway?  It’s a vague, elusive term, one of those, “I know it when I see it” things.  However, I’ve never been a big fan of that sort of analysis.  Therefore, in order to give the term some objectivity, I fed some basic stats into our subscription stats website, www.stathead.com (all stats in this column are courtesy of Stathead): a passer rating of at least 95 or higher, completion percentage of at least 65%, and having started 75% of the regular season starts over the past 5 seasons, which is 61 of 75 games.  My thought process with this list is (1) effectiveness, (2) efficiency, and (3) availability.  Unsurprisely, the list of quarterbacks who met all of these criteria is pretty short.  Sorted by quarterback rating, there are 9:

That seems to be a pretty good list of the quarterbacks who we could loosely consider to be “franchise quarterbacks”[1].  I could argue that perhaps Ryan Tannehill doesn’t belong on the list, and I noticeably and intentional left wins out, as wins are a team result.  Also, Washington fans no doubt bristle at the thought of Cousins being a franchise quarterback, but the point is that I think this is a pretty decent set of objective criteria to define the term.

For the sake of the discussion, then, that’s what Sam Howell needs to shoot for: effective, efficient, and available.  Play at least 75% of the games over the next five seasons, achieve a cumulative passer rater of 95 of higher, and a 65% completion percentage.  That’s obviously a tall order, and it isn’t something that Howell achieved in college, at least not in his overall completion percentage.  Howell earned an overall completion percentage of 63.8%, which was a combination of his elite 2020, featuring a 68.1%, and his less than stellar 2021 campaign with a 62.5%.  Collegiate passer rating is a different formula than the NFL’s rating, so we can’t compare the two.  North Carolina lost quite a bit of talent to the NFL in 2021, including Washington’s Dyami Brown, which certainly contributed to Howell’s downturn.  One could also say, perhaps, that Howell succeeded with talent around him but was unable to make his teammates better.  Howell’s stats from his one NFL game were decidedly average: 11 for 19 for 169 yards, 57.9% completion percentage, 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  That’s just one game, though, and it doesn’t tell us much.

The odds are certainly against him achieving “franchise quarterback” status.  The developing young talent in Washington’s receiving corps, along with a better offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy, will certainly help.  I suspect that a quick, short-passing offense will benefit him most.  That having been said, Howell probably doesn’t have enough talent to win on his own.  If he isn’t put into a situation that will allow him to succeed, the fact is that he probably won’t develop into what we hope.  Ron Rivera, or his replacement, needs to figure out how to put together an offensive line that’s better than the below average, less than stellar group they currently have, as well as an above average running game, or nothing else is going to matter.  Howell needs protection and a legitimate running option to survive and develop.  Whether that happens is anyone’s guess.  Let’s hope so.

What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section.

 

 

 

[1] For those wondering, Lamar Jackson posted 96.7 / 63.7% / 61, meaning that his completion percentage was too low.