Washington Week 5 Opponent: Chicago Bears

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July 21, 2023

by David Earl

Chicago Bears Offseason

This matchup is crucial, as I have Washington on a 3-game losing streak with back-to-back double-digit losses against the Bills and Eagles. The most intriguing part of this game is that, against this Bears team, it could be a get-right win for Washington or they could be seeing a team hitting on all cylinders right off the bat. Before I dive into the game itself, their offseason has been predominantly productive. Defensively they did well in improving pass coverage by adding middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who had his best season with Buffalo last year. As discussed here, Edmunds improved his overall coverage rating by 34% allowing a quarterback rating against of 69.9. In the running game, he is a sure tackler who covers sideline to sideline very well but his pass-rush numbers are not great –  he only collected 1 sack and 3 quarterback pressure of 18 blitz attempts. While many rave about the addition of T.J. Edwards, I can’t help but think he was more a product of a great situation. He significantly improved his coverage grade by 18%, from 99.6 in the 2021 season to a grade of 82.1 last year, but his numbers prior to this season were not anything really special.  In addition, his 6.5% missed tackle rate has to be concerning for Chicago. Defensively they may have improved some but not nearly as much as on offense.  The Bears added wide receiver D.J. Moore to go with last year’s in-season trade of Chase Claypool. Both will play alongside a speedy and sure-handed Darnell Mooney, so Justin Fields has the weapons.  Will he take the next step?

The Bears’ offensive line was a terrible unit in pass protection last season, but they were than efficient in helping to produce one of the top rushing offenses in the game. Granted, Fields plays much into that, but taking away Fields rushing numbers, the running back unit averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 398 attempts finishing with 1,871 yards total. The running game is stout and, as far as the pass protection, they drafted one of the best offensive tackles the draft, Darnell Wright, to go alongside free agent acquisition guard Nate Davis. So how does this all break down into this week 5 matchup?

Washington Defense vs Bears Offense

In order for Washington’s pass rush to be effective they will have to mitigate Chicago’s run-first offense.  Last year, the Bears ran the ball for 56.19% of their offense. In 2022, they averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and 177.3 yards per game, both being the best in the NFL, and were in the top 5 offensively in rushing first downs per game at 8.7. This may be a little obvious, but looking at the Bears’ offensive line in pass protection last season, Washington’s defensive line will need every opportunity to exploit the only true weakness of the Bears’ offense. Their offensive line contributed to a league-worse sack percentage, 13.33%, and their 3.4 sacks per game was ranked 29th. Washington was ranked 2nd in completion percentage at 59.92%, but they were ranked 20th in yards per completion at 10.6, and the team’s 68.42% in touchdown percentage was ranked 27th. Why is that important here? If that running game for the Bears gets going, which then leads to misdirection and play-action pass plays with a dynamic player in Fields, the Bears’ explosive receiving core will potentially dominate against a secondary which allowed a passer rating of 90.2, ranked 17th. A healthy Washington defensive front combined and what appears to be an improved secondary could prove to be just enough in this week 5 matchup but only by the narrowest of margins.

Matchup Edge: Slightly Washington

Washington Offense vs Bears Defense

The Bears’ defense was rather poor in most statistical categories last season – they gave up rushing yards per attempt 4.9, which was ranked 27th, 8.9 1st downs per game, which was the worst in the NFL, 67.15% completion percentage, ranked 28th, and a weak pass rush that produced one of the leagues worse sack percentages at 3.99%. Even with the offseason moves to improve this unit, they did not seem to fill the pass rush or secondary coverage needs well enough. Washington was no juggernaut offensively last season – they were ranked in the bottom third in sacks allowed and have a mediocre run game. I expect Eric Bieniemy to be a wild card, especially with their receivers against the Bears’ corners. Washington’s running game may appear to have a favorable matchup against that poor Bears’ rushing defense, but remember that Washington was 28th in the league for yards per attempt (4.0). Eric Bieniemy and the wide receivers, plus the decent mobility of Sam Howell will ultimately give them the upper hand as I see it today.

Matchup Edge: Washington

Conclusion

Now, let’s go back to my aforementioned intrigue in this game and just how important this week 5 matchup is so early in the season. There is no doubt Chicago has some explosive and dynamic offensive pieces, beginning with Justin Fields, but their offensive line improvements are unmeasurable at this time. The pass protection does not seem to be anything more than marginally improved, so generating an effective pass rush to pressure Fields is clearly paramount. That will matter most if Jack Del Rio and this defense can limit the Bears’ running game to a moderate performance. When I look back on Washington’s Monday Night matchup against Philadelphia last year, the defense is certainly capable of playing disciplined enough to do so, and that will positively affect the pass rush. Considering the Bears’ defense should still be vulnerable, especially against the pass, any key stops or turnovers by this defense could prove too critical for Chicago to overcome. Until I see Justin Fields take that next step and see the chemistry with his new weapons offensively take shape, Washington should end their three game losing streak heading into week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons. Washington could realistically pull ahead to stay early in the 4th quarter and win 23-17 in a relatively close matchup.