2023 Season Preview – Part 3

July 26, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

Part 1 of my season preview looked at five players not named Sam Howell who should be key players for a successful season in 2023, and in part 2, I reviewed the schedule overall and look at the first half of the games. Please check out David Earl’s posts for individual game previews.

Recap

The 2023 schedule is not a friendly one. The NFC East plays the AFC East and the NFC West which leads to the four NFC East teams all placing in the top 10 of toughest strength of schedule based on 2022 season results. The Eagles are first, the Cowboys and Giants are tied for fourth and the Commanders come in at eighth.

The Second Half

The second half of the season features long-distance away games against the Seahawks and Rams, plus a Thursday, the Thanksgiving afternoon game against the Cowboys. For the second year in a row, the season finale is at home against the Cowboys. Sandwiched in between the away game with the Patriots and the finale with Dallas are a number of difficult games.

After facing the Seahawks away, Washington faces the Giants at home, followed by the short week and the Thanksgiving Day game. The Dolphins are projected to compete with the Bills for the AFC East division title. At that point in week 14, the Commanders finally get their bye week.

Coming off the bye week is the Rams game. They figure to be improved from their injury-riddled 2022 season. Matthew Stafford played in only nine games last season when they finished 5-12. The Jets added quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the roster in an offseason trade. That one change alone might flip their 7-10 finish to a 10-7 finish if the Rodgers can play well the whole season. By the time the Commanders face the 49ers, quarterback Brock Purdy should be back at the helm from his late season elbow injury. The 49ers defense also figures to be one of the top in the league, even after losing another defensive coordinator in DeMeco Ryans.

The second half of the season doesn’t really have any games that stand out as ones the Commanders are sure to win. In fact, the two easiest games on the schedule might be the away games with the Patriots and Rams depending on how their respective seasons are faring at that point; plus, away games are never easy in the NFL. This is the main reason why I said in part 2 that the first half of the season is critical to the team having a winning season. A slow start followed by this second half schedule could be a recipe for a coaching change at the end of the season.

Realistically, the Commanders will have to go at least 3-3 or 4-2 against their NFC East opponents. If the team can win two NFC East games and pick up a win in one of the Patriots or Rams games that would give them 3 wins in the second half. The last time Washington beat the Patriots was in 2003; yes folks, Washington actually beat Tom Brady once. Unfortunately, the last four contests saw the Patriots outscore Washington 146 to 51. The upside is that while Bill Belichick is still there, Brady is now retired. Since 2003 Washington has gone 5-6 against the Rams and won two of the last three games. This will be the first matchup with the Rams since 2020.

After that, the season comes down to how many games they can win in the Seahawks, Dolphins, Jets, and 49ers set of games. They would need at least two wins in those four games to finish the second half 5-4. Combine with a 5-3 start that would give them a 10-7 record and the potential to earn a playoff spot. The four teams will also likely be driving towards a playoff berth at that point and be highly motivated to win. Those teams are also well coached and will have the players focused, so they won’t be overlooking the game they are currently playing.

A more likely scenario is they finish the season 4-5 and end up with a 9-8 record which would probably mean elimination from playoff contention. The tolerance for my nine-win season is plus or minus two games, putting the range for the season from 7-10 to 11-6 with 10 wins being the breaking point for a possible playoff spot.

Part 4 of my offseason preview will be five players who may surprise and make the roster.