What does Ron Rivera need to do to keep his job?

August 7, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Ron Rivera has had ups and down in his four seasons as head coach and defacto general manager in Washington, but clearly more negatives than positives.  This upcoming season happens to be the first year under the helm of new owner Josh Harris, so it’s almost certain that he’s going to spend the year evaluating both the business and football staffs, with an unknown number of changes to come.  Rivera is obviously at the top of the evaluation list, and it strikes me as being pretty unlikely that he stays, but if things go right, you never know what might happen.

The question for today is what Rivera needs to accomplish in the 2023 season to survive the changes that are surely coming.  Before we answer that, let’s take a quick look at what he’s accomplished in Washington so far:

Win – Loss record

2020: 7 – 9, home 3 – 5, away 4 – 4, 1, 1st place, playoff loss

2021: 7 – 10, home 3 – 5, 4 – 5, 3rd place

2022: 8 – 8 – 1, home 4 – 5, 4 – 3 – 1, 4th place

Rivera’s total win – loss record in Washington is 22 – 27 – 1, which is a .450 winning percentage, plus one Wild Card loss in 202.  In nine seasons in Carolina, Rivera earned a record of 76 – 63 – 1, which is a .546 winning percentage, and had 4 playoff appearances, with a total of 8 games, including 3 wins and a Super Bowl appearance.

Offensive rankings

2020: pts: 25; pts differential: 14; total yds: 30; rushing yds/att: 28; passing yds: 25

2021: pts: 23; pts differential: 25: total yds: 21; rushing yds/att: 18; passing yds: 21

2022: pts: 24; pt differential: 21; total yds: 20; rushing yds/att: 28; passing yds: 21

The points differential statistic ranking is the measure of how much a team outscores its opponents.

Not much positivity can be taken from these rankings – Rivera started with fairly little in 2020 and still has fairly little heading into 2023.  This offense has consistently stayed in the bottom third for three years in nearly all of these rankings.  Note that the team has been very consistent in points scored, remaining in the mid-20s for all three years.  2021 was a minor improvement in rushing yards per attempt, but still not good; however, things regressed to the team in 2022 – i.e., terrible, despite significant resources being placed into the running back group.  The passing yards rankings stayed in the same range, despite the big improvements to the receiver group.  This is no doubt due to Rivera’s massive butchering of the quarterback group, which is a position at which he’s failed at every turn.  Rivera doesn’t really get much credit for improvement here.  The only direction is up.

Defensive rankings

2020: pts: 4; total yds: 2; takeaways: 7; rushing yds/att: 11; passing yds: 2

2021: pts: 25; total yds: 22; takeaways: 21; rushing yds/att: 9; passing yds: 29

2022: pts: 7; total yds: 3; takeaways: 26; rushing yds/att: 16; passing yds: 4

The takeaways statistic ranking measures the combined interceptions and fumble recoveries by a defense.

As you can see, 2020 was the best year for Washington’s defense.  2021 was a down year, with 2022 returning to within striking distance of the 2020 high water mark.  What sticks out to me in these rankings are that (1) rushing defense has remained mediocre, and (2) takeaways has gotten worse.  While 2022 certainly featured a quality defense, the fact remains that it was not an improvement over 2020.  Furthermore, it may not be an accident that 2021 was a down year considering that the team had to play a 1st place schedule, while 2020 had a fourth place schedule thanks to the team’s 4th place finish in 2019 under the prior coaching staff. The 2022 season featured a third place schedule, so it stands to reason that things should have improved somewhat.

To put it simply, what all of these statistics show us is that Rivera simply hasn’t been particularly effective on the field in Washington.  As measured by overall win – loss record, his time wit this team has been worse than his stint with the Panthers.  Certainly, this has been a difficult three seasons, with the scourge of the Snyder years reaching its apex of chaos, but the fact remains that Rivera has not made this team significantly better during his years in DC.  His one playoff appearance was in his first season, and that appearance was only due to the fact that the NFC East division that season was one of the worst overall divisions in NFL history.  That isn’t much to brag about.

A roadmap for Rivera in 2023

This means that he’s going to need to make serious progress in the upcoming 2023 season.  I hesitate to provide specific required numbers, but think the following is a good road map:

• Winning record
• Stability at quarterback
• Running game becomes at least league average
• Improvement in run defense
• 2022 draft picks show promise

If he can get all of those things done, Rivera might just be able to stick around.  Considering the lack of big-picture progress during the past three years, in my view it’s going to take quite a bit in each category in order for him to stay.  I don’t think simply ending up with a 9 – 8 record, a second or third place finish, and even a Wild Card game loss is going to be enough.  Rivera is going to need to produce a legitimate contender and legitimate NFC East champion.  In terms of the quarterback, Rivera has handled the position so badly that he needs to hit a home run with Sam Howell.  Another start – stop routine isn’t going to be good enough.  Howell needs to become “the guy”, the franchise quarterback that the team has been missing for decades.

Washington’s running game has been below average for awhile.  I realize that the team currently has a couple of fan favorites in Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr., but the fact of the matter is that neither one of them have performed at even a league-average level.  Robinson is only in his second year, and had an abbreviated rookie season, so he can improve; regardless, Rivera somehow needs to produce in the neighborhood of 4.5 yards per carry in 2023.

Similarly, Rivera’s run defense hasn’t been up to snuff, either, especially considering the enormous amount of resources that he’s put into the defensive line, probably too much.  All of these draft picks have produced a middle of the road run defense by most measures, and that isn’t going to be good enough.

The draft picks need to pan out.  Rivera is the one who drafted two straight corners in rounds 1 and 2, thereby ignoring legitimate, serious team needs in the offensive line and linebacker groups in favor of a position that probably didn’t even need one high draft pick, let alone two.  Having both Emmanual Forbes and Jartavius Martin fail in year one will be a big blow to Rivera.

Rivera has a five year contract, so 2024 is his lame duck year, and most NFL coaches either re-sign or get fired before having to coach through that situation.  However, if 2023 ends up being another year that fits into the general parameters of the 2020 through 2022 seasons, then I think it is more likely than not that Harris and/or his team president decides to make a move.  And news flash: if Rivera goes, it doesn’t seem like that new fan favorite Eric Bieniemy sticks around either.

What do you think?  Will Ron Rivera still be Washington’s head coach in 2024?  Let me know in the comment section below.