Washington Remaining AFC East Opponents: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets

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August 25, 2023

by David Earl

The Offseason

For the sake of time, the remaining matchup columns will be condensed.  For these respective teams’ key offseason moves, click here. The biggest offseason move of these 3 teams easily goes to the New York Jets, who traded for Aaron Rodgers. Last season was not one of his best seasons from a statistical perspective – his touchdown percentage was 4.8, which was down from his career average of 6.2%, and he hadthe worst QBR of his career, 39.3.  However, Rodgers brings what this Jets offense has lacked for years at quarterback. He is only a year removed from being named league MVP and comes to a team with plenty of talent, such as wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook.

So as the Jets took a big swing, the New England Patriots made moves that filled many whole across the board. They improved an offensive line that was near the bottom of the league in pass protection while adding quality offensive skill position players in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki.

Of these 3 teams, the Miami Dolphins moves were the most underwhelming, as the team didn’t get worse but no significant improvement existed. Information on Miami’s draft is available here but I will mention one: Christian Gonzalez, whom Washington passed on for Emmanuel Forbes. Forbes has certainly had a good offseason with Washington but Gonzalez has thusfar looked every bit the corner he was advertised to be. Yes, it’s preseason but when this week 10 matchup occurs one of the potential storylines will be to compare these two players. Will Ron Rivera be vindicated for some of the harsh criticisms for passing on Gonzalez, or will he have yet another mistake added to his draft selection profile in Washington? Let’s get into the matchups.

Washington vs Patriots

  • Washington Defense vs. Patriots Offense: To start with, Mac Jones has shown to be a solid starting quarterback thus far but not nearly the franchise player New England may have hoped for. He had a drop in production in his second season and did not improve from his 2.5 interception percentage, which shows in his QBR of 36.2. While his high sack percentage of 7.1 may be more of an indictment of the Patriots’ offensive line, which was ranked 19th, it is also no secret that he lacks mobility. Although the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott, who has not been the same runner since 2019, the Patriots’ running game does not present any schematic issues for Washington when taking into account their quarterback. Even with their skill position additions, they don’t offer a lot of issues for a defensive unit in Washington that was ranked 6th in sack percentage, 2nd in completion percentage against, and a run defense that is that has a low percentage of rushing first downs surrendered at 26.32%. Basically, this is one of the few matchups Jack Del Rio can take more chances with his edge rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young, because he knows New England won’t have a dynamic run game while facing a quarterback in Jones who has shown only regression to this point of his career. Matchup Edge: Washington
  • Washington Offense vs. Patriots Defense: After the second week of the preseason there seems to be a level of optimism around Sam Howell and this offense, which is understandable, but it is still truly untested. Until I see this translate into the regular season, my theme of an inexperienced quarterback plus a statistically terrible offensive line last season will continue. Outside of a high touchdown rate, 70%, and giving up a high rate of first downs in the passing game, 61.78%, the Patriots’ defensive unit is aggressive across the board. They face an offensive line ranked near the bottom in protecting the quarterback , with a 7.97% sack percentage and a run-blocking unit that allowed 4.0 yards per carry last season. The one saving grace for Washington is the quick passing game Eric Bieniemy has shown thus far in the preseason but I cannot fairly assess that completely until the season starts. Basically, if the offense is as effective as it has shown thus far in preseason the Patriots would almost lose this matchup edge…ALMOST! Matchup Edge: Patriots
  • Matchup Conclusion: This game is going to be a gut-check game for Washington after coming off back-to-back divisional games against the Giants and Eagles while heading into the difficult stretch of their schedule, as I see it anyway. As I mentioned before, they most likely split the meeting with the Giants so, depending on what happens in week 7, they may be 4-4 or 3-5 at this point in the season. While 3-5 would make this game far more pressing to win, this game will be critical to the team’s effort to stay in the wild card race. With the matchups I’ve pointed out, this is a game that should be hard-fought to the end and I can see a final game-winning drive for Washington, as this is not you same old New England Patriots you fear playing on the road. Washington’s defense will be the catalyst in this game squeaking this one out with a field goal and a final score of 20-19.

Washington vs. Dolphins

  • Washington Defense vs. Dolphins Offense: This Dolphins offense is truly a one-dimensional unit.  It is ranked among the better teams in yards per completion, at 12.2, and sack percentages, at 5.84% but, as far as the run game, they re statistically near the bottom of the league at 96 rushing yards per game, which is ranked 27th . They did not significantly improve on the run game, either through offensive line help or a new running back, so it is fair to assess Washington’s defense could match up well. The biggest potential match-up threat they face will be the tandem of wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but they do face an improved secondary. Washington’s secondary ranked 2nd in completion percentage at 59.92% last yearand compiled a 7.72% sack rate, ranked 6th, and had a stingy passing first down conversion rate of 54.20%, ranked 9th. Of course, the biggest wild card here is whether Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy entering this game, particularly when looking at his recent concussion history. Assuming no injuries here, the tandem of explosive wide receivers in Miami are enough to give them the slightest edge, but it is very close. Matchup Edge: Dolphins
  • Washington Offense vs. Dolphins Defense: Washington’s offense should exploit the Dolphins’ defense with relative success. Here’s why. The Dolphins’ 6.62% sack rate is roughly league average, but they allowed opposing quarterbacks a completion rate of 66.21% and a quarterback rating of 95.2. This is a matchup Eric Bieniemy should be able to handle with his wide receivers and the short passing game which will help open up a run game that the Dolphins do well against. They were among the better run defenses in the league ranked 8th in yards per carry at 4.1, and only allowed 5.9 rushing first downs per game. I actually feel Washington has the right skill position players, including running back Antonio Gibson as a pass catcher, to open up this Dolphins defense. Matchup Edge: Washington
  • Matchup Conclusion: So this game is in the part of the season, week 13, where Washington is either a legitimate playoff team or Ron Rivera is on his way out as head coach. Continuing on my current prediction this game will either see Wahington’s record at 6-6 and in the wild card hunt or 5-7 which depends on the week 12 game against Seattle. Even at 5-7, with the addition of the extra wild card slot a few years back, they will be on the outside looking in with hope. Taking all of that into consideration, I see this game as a motivational game for Washington, yet again following back-to-back divisional games, and the team will respond to keep the season alive. Washington pulls away late and wins somewhat comfortably 26-17.

Washington vs. Jets

  • Washington Defense vs. Jets Offense: Let me be real blunt and to the point here: this Jets offense is going to be really good. They had ineffective quarterback in the 2022 season and lost one of their top weapons in running back Breece Hall, and the offense ranked 24th with 4.2 yards per carry, 31st in rushing first down per game at 4.6. The offensive line  allowed a league average 6.28% sack rate. The addition of dynamic running back Dalvin Cook and a healthy Breece Hall plus future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers who gets to throw not only to a familiar favorite wide receiver Allen Lazard but also the talented Garrett Wilson.  Washington’s defense will stand their ground early but the weapons are just too much and will overwhelm this defense later in the game. Matchup Edge: Jets
  • Washington Offense vs. Jets Defense: The Jets were very successful in attacking opposing quarterbacks last season, with a 7.49% sack rate and a 62.41% completion percentage against, which led to a league-best 80.5 quarterback rating against. Their run defense wasn’t as dominant, but it was still a good unit that allowed 4.2 yards per carry. They will face a Washington offensive line that was not particularly good in the run game allowing 4.0 yards per carry. The most alarming matchup will be the Jets’ dominant pass rush against Washington who ranked 25th in sack percentage at 7.97%. Matchup Edge: Jets
  • Matchup Conclusion: I understand that how good the Jets look this season is only on paper right now, but as long as Aaron Rodgers is one of the names on that paper I am buying the hype. Washington’s offensive line will look to be overmatched by a dominant defensive front as the Jets’ offense and all their weapons led by Rodgers will pull away for a comfortable 31-19 win.