Season Prediction

September 5, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Here we are: week one of the new 2023 season.  I realized that in all of my recent preseason writings, I haven’t spent much time actually predicting the season.  Since we’re now at the eleventh hour, it’s now or never with a prediction column, so here we are – how will the Redskins the Washington Football Team Commanders Washington do this season?  Obviously, this sort of win – loss guessing is a crapshoot in general, but particularly this season since Washington has gone through all sorts of turmoil, has a talent deficiency in comparison to the top teams, but had a good preseason.  In terms of my process for a season prediction, I never go into it with a preconceived final record in mind; I go game by game, and however it turns out is the result I stick with.  So without further ado, here’s my official prediction for 2023:

First Quarter

Week 1, Arizona at Washington:  This game is about the best first step into Washington’s new era as the team could possible hope for.  The Cardinals will be missing their starting quarterback and will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs, or worse, Clayton Tune.  On top of that, their pass defense was atrocious last year, and they didn’t do a ton to improve things.  Throw in a long cross-country trip, and this is a recipe for a win.

Prediction: Win – Washington in a solid win

Week 2, Washington at Denver:  The Broncos were almost as bad as the Cardinals in 2022.  The hero of the Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson, was a disaster last season.  Presumably, he’ll be better in 2023, because it can hardly get worse, and the Broncos added receiver Marvin Mims in round two of the draft.  Still, though: I have a good feeling about this game, even despite the fairly long travel day.

Prediction: Win – Washington in a close game

Week 3, Buffalo at Washington:  Ummm…..no.

Prediction: Loss – Buffalo, big

Week 4, Washington at Philadelphia:  I hate to break it to everyone, but the simple fact is that the Eagles are a much better team than Washington in nearly every area.  Washington could possibly surprise here, because you never know what’s going to happen in NFC East games, but the most likely result here is a competitive game resulting in an Eagles win

Prediction: Loss – Philadelphia in a close game

First quarter summary: 2 – 2

Second Quarter

Week 5, Chicago at Washington (Thursday):  The Bears were somehow an even worse team in 2022 than both the Cardinals and the Broncos.  Justin Fields, the 11th overall pick in round one in 2021, was bad both as a rookie, but improved a bit last year, with quarterback rating of 85.2 and 60.5% completion percentage in 2022.  Chicago tried to help him out in this year’s draft by drafting a new left tackle, Darnell Wright.  Still, though, Washington is historically bad on Thursday nights, one of the worst teams in the NFL, so that’s going against Washington.  I think the Bears are going to get it together a little bit this year, with Fields continuing to improve, a little bit too much for Washington’s taste.

Prediction: Loss – Bears in a squeaker

Week 6, Washington at Atlanta:  The Falcons actually have some talent in the offensive skill positions and drafted the best running back in the draft this year, Bijan Robinson, with pick 8 in round 1.  Still, though, their quarterback situation is . . . less than ideal.  Atlanta wasn’t a very good team last year, and while they may be slightly improved, probably won’t be very good this year either.

Prediction: Win – Washington in a solid win

Week 7, Washington at New York Giants:  I know Washington fans don’t want to hear this, and probably don’t believe it, but the Giants are a better team than Washington.  New York handled Daniel Jones in an outstanding manner, sticking with him when many other teams – including Washington, which could write a book on how to ruin quarterbacks – would not, and the result is a solid pro with a new contract.  These Giants games have sometimes going totally haywire, but I just think facing the Giants in New York is a bit too much.

Prediction: Loss – Giants in a squeaker

Week 8, Philadelphia at Washington:  Once again, the Eagles are a much better team.  Philadelphia is a Super Bowl contender; Washington isn’t.  This one might be closer since it is in Washington, but the Eagles aren’t going to give one away here.

Prediction: Loss – Eagles in a solid win

Second quarter summary: 1 – 3, 3 – 5 overall

Third Quarter

Week 9, Washington at New England:  These obviously aren’t the Patriots of a few years ago, who fielded some of the best teams in NFL history.  Quarterback Mac Jones improved last year, and posted a quality 92.5 quarterback rating and 67.6% completion percentage.  New England doesn’t have a ton of talent, thanks to a series of questionable drafts by Bill Belichick, but still: I have a heard time believing that Washington can walk into Boston and come away with a win.

Prediction: Loss – Patriots in a squeaker

Week 10, Washington at Seattle:  Like the Patriots, these aren’t the Seahawks of old, either, past their days of being Super Bowl contenders.  Still, though, Seattle is a solid playoff team with a surprisingly good quarterback who came from the trek of journeyman status to earn a Pro Bowl  and a new, large three year contract.  Throw in a very long travel day, and the odds are that this game won’t go well for Washington either.

Prediction: Loss – Seattle, big

Week 11, New York Giants at Washington:  Washington isn’t simply going to go 0 – 6 in the NFC East, and this game is at home.  At this point, Washington’s season is shaping up to be essentially over unless they win out, and I think the home team is going to come through with a win here.

Prediction: Win – Washington wins a competitive game

Week 12, Washington at Dallas (Thanksgiving Day):  Perhaps more than any other team, Dallas has had Washington’s number for a long time, going 14 – 6 against Washington over the last 10 years.  Dallas gets entirely too much attention and credit from NFL media, and we all hate this team, but I view Dak Prescott as an outstanding quarterback, and this team has tons of talent.  Plus, this is a Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas.  The Cowboys are a Super Bowl contender, and they are unfortunately going to win this game.

Prediction: Loss – Dallas wins big

Week 13, Miami at Washington:  I realize that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a career year last season and that Miami is a playoff team; plus, the Dolphins do have some talent, particularly on offense.  I’m just not a Tua fan, though, and the Dolphins have to come to Washington, so I think the home team takes this one to finish on a high note heading into the bye week.

Prediction: Win – Washington gets a solid win

Third quarter summary: 2 – 3, 5 – 8 overall

Fourth Quarter

Week 14: Bye

Week 15, Washington at Los Angeles Rams: The Rams underperformed last year, and Matthew Stafford has publicly faced problems relating to his teammates.  The Rams strike me as a team on the way down, not up.  On the other hand, Washington has yet another long travel day, but every year there’s at least one game that surprises, and I think this is the one for 2023.  Washington should be able to go into Los Angeles and get a victory even despite the long flight.

Prediction: Win – Washington

Week 16, Washington at New York Jets:  Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, and he’s on a mission.  Throw in a ton of talent on the Jets roster and a travel day up to New York, and Washington is on a collision course with bad here.  This game probably isn’t going to be particularly close.

Prediction: Loss – the Jets get a big win

Week 17, San Francisco at Washington: Yikes.  This is a tough game, even despite San Francisco’s long trip to Washington.  I should clarify, though: this depends greatly on Brock Purdy’s health.  I assume he’ll be back to full strength from his serious injury at the end of last season.  If not, that’ll be a hinderance, but maybe not a very big one.  San Francisco has entirely too much of everything for Washington to handle.

Prediction: Loss – the 49ers win in a blowout

Week 18, Dallas at Washington:  By the time week 18 rolls around, Washington will most likely be out of it and Dallas will be gearing up for a playoff run.  Conventional wisdom says that Dallas wins big, but they could possibly be resting their starters at this point.  Realistically, though, Washington probably loses here in Ron Rivera’s last game as Washington’s head coach.

Prediction: Loss – Dallas takes a solid win

Fourth quarter summary: 1 – 3

Overall season prediction: 6 – 11

What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section below.