Burgundy & Gold Reaction: is Sam Howell “The Guy”?

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November 8, 2023

Gaining Support Among Fans

Al Galdi’s statement pretty much sums up where the fans seem to stand on Sam Howell. Aside from a serious sack issue Sam has had all season, his game has shown more positives than negatives, especially over the last 2 games. The most telling stat from this weekend is how Howell handled Patriots blitzes considering how Bill Belichick has routinely been able to confuse young quarterbacks. Mark Bullock does an excellent job breaking this down. In this game, when under pressure, Howell was 13 of 18 with 139 yards and 1 touchdown culminating in a passer rating of 113. It is true that the Patriots’ defense is ranked near the bottom of the league in sack percentage at 5.26% and ranked 19th in passer rating allowed at 91.8; however, against young quarterbacks, Belichick has been near flawless over the years. Let’s not cherry-pick a stat that is still very subjective, and instead dive into some of Howell’s raw numbers and make some comparisons.

Sack Rate is Alarming

Let’s start with the biggest issue that analytics has with Howell, one which has certainly plagued him since college – sacks. It’s common knowledge that he is well on pace to break the all-time sack mark of 76 in the 2002 season against David Carr. In fact, Sam is on pace for being sacked 83 times, but have things recently changed? Is this issue that plagues Howell unique, and is it the nail in the coffin for him being the franchise quarterback? Not only do some analytics suggest this to be so but some fans are adamant about agreeing with this theory. What do the numbers say and what are some statistical comparisons?

To start with, after recent changes the offensive line has improved over the last few weeks. In weeks 1-6, Washington’s sack percentage ranked 31st at 11.08%, which equated to 5.8 sacks per game.  However, dropped 4.37 percentage points to 6.71% allowing 3.3 sacks per game over the last 3 weeks. Offensive philosophy surely assisted here, with Eric Bieniemy passing the ball 67.86% of the time (the highest in the league), but recently the quick passing game and more screenplays have been implemented at a greater rate. This change has shown on the field, as the team has only given up only 4 sacks over the 2 weeks, and only 1 against one of the top pass-rushing units in Philadelphia.

Improvement is evident, but now consistency will need to follow. Although they gave up 3 sacks against a bad pass-rush team in New England, the Bill Belichick factor against young quarterbacks cannot be dismissed. Against their blitzes, Howell was not rattled, and the offensive line held their ground rather well.  Howell was in rhythm throughout the game thanks to the improved offensive line and the quick passing game.

With that said, the sack rate is still far too alarming to claim it is fixed after the last two games. It’s been his problem since college. Is this a fixable trait? To get some insight into this question, I did a statistical analysis between Sam’s first year as a starter to Russell Wilson‘s first year. Howell’s sack percentage index this season is 74 (100 points is average; higher is better) as compared to Wilson’s 89 sack percentage index. Over Wilson’s first 3 seasons, his sack percentage index averaged 82, with his worst season coming in year two at 73. Therefore, these numbers show that Wilson has been a bit better than Howell overall, albeit with one year at roughly the same level.  The point is, though, that Wilson still had the same problem as Howell, and the Seahawks made an effort to adjust their offensive philosophy around his strengths, allowing Wilson significant freedom to move and roll out. This resulted in two Super Bowl appearances, including one win and a 12 year career that resulted in a sack index of 90 or better twice. Is this to say Howell is the guy? No, but shows how proper coaching and scheme can hide this major flaw in his game,which we appear to be seeing now. Consistency over time will determine Howell’s outcome.

Looking a Little Deeper

For the next comparison, I used Tua Tagovailoa‘s first season to Sam Howell’s current as many see Tagovailoa as an MVP candidate this season. The following chart is taken from pro football reference stathead and an index of abbreviated terms shown in this column. This is comparing Tua’s 2020 season and his 9 career starts to Howell’s current season. A score of 100 is average thus the higher the number the better. Before I dive into this, notice Howell leads Tagovailoa in all but one category so it is safe to at least say Washington may have a quarterback to build around. Yes, Tua had a much better sack percentage index of 98 compared to Sam’s 74 number.

Player Cmp%+ Y/A+ TD%+ Int%+ Rate+ AY/A+ NY/A+ ANY/A+
Tua Tag. 98 81 92 111 94 89 83 89
Sam Howell 109 100 99 95 100 98 88 90

Completion Percentage Index (Cmp%+): Howell’s accuracy has certainly been a strong point of his career thus far have four games completing 69% or better of his passes. This category doesn’t need too much more detail – he was nearly 2.5% better, with Tua being 69% or better in three of his starts that season.

Yards Per Attempt Index (Y/A+): The air yards favor Howell a bit, but the detailed numbers show things a little differently. Tua’s average yards per attempt was 6.3 and his adjusted number, which accounts for 20+ yards touchdowns, and interceptions in the calculations had a differential of -.1 (6.2). On the other hand, Howell has a -1.3 differential here from 8.9 to 7.6 yards per attempt. This shows a clear distinction in interception percentage, where Tua was an exceptional 1.7% whereas Sam currently had a 5.3% and Tua completed more explosive plays. Two influencing categories here:

  • Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Index (AY/A+): Howell is averaging 6.6 with 10.5 yards per completion and amassing an average of 274.6 yards passing per game. Tua finished that season averaging 6.2 with 9.8 yards per completion while amassing 181.4 yards passing per game. Howell may have lacked the explosive plays Tua had, as I mentioned earlier, but he was more productive in each attempt.
  • Net Yards Per Attempt Index (NY/A+): This category figures in yards lost from sacks and a relation between pass attempts and times sacked. Here Howell had a slight edge with a 5.49 net yards gained over Tua’s 5.41.

Quarterback Rating Index (Rate+): Here we see another positive – Howell leads Tua with a quarterback rating differential between the two being 2.2 in Howell’s favor. Howell is carrying an 89.3 rating (QBR of 47.3) versus Tua’s 87.1 rating (QBR of 44.8). Again, looking a bit deeper, Howell’s passing volume is far more (353 vs. 290) and appears to help create the disparity as passer rating calculations figure in pass attempts. However, Howell’s higher touchdown and completion percentage compared to Tua’s is a determining factor. This index number takes into account these numbers plus what the QBR calculations use for every quarterback in the league.

What Does This Mean?

The short version is to sit back and allow this kid to develop and hope Eric Bieniemy continues to play to his strengths before making a final decision. While the sacks are a major concern, these last few weeks have shown that offensive philosophy can mask this issue. Russell Wilson’s experience in Seattle is a perfect example for Howell,as Seattle recognized this issue with Wilson and adapted. In doing so Seattle went 104-53-1 in games Wilson started, and won a Super Bowl yet with a quarterback having a sack problem. As I pointed out, Wilson has continued throughout his career to struggle in this category too. As far as the remaining metrics listed above Howell may not be on a Patrick Mahomes, pace but is comparably better than Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is currently helping a Dolphins team whose offense is one of the best in the NFL and is regarded as an MVP candidate thus far. It’s not to say Howell will one day be an MVP-caliber player but it is indicative of potential that’s worth developing over time.

We can pick very specific numbers, such as Pro Football Focus’s Neil Greenberg showing stats like -34 expected points added, and -21.5% DVOA -2 points (point spread) which are all valid but also subjective in many aspects. PFF is also the site that gave Russell Wilson an overall score of 89.7 in his 2012 season, despite having a “sack problem” like Howell. They are also the same site that gave Tua Tagovailoa a higher score (68.3) in his 2020 season compared to Sam’s 66.6 this season. They gave Tua a higher score when Howell was statistically better in nearly all categories. I understand they have many calculations they use, such as how the play should have resulted and whether a pass was catchable or not but even that’s all still subjective. Take this regression chart posted as the lines of regression (or lack thereof) are going in the positive direction. Is this being factored into the analytics of Howell ‘s evaluation? Regardless of any of this, the one thing Howell has earned is the right to play out the year and prove he can be a franchise quarterback.