Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Bieniemy and Howell Package Deal?

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November 15, 2023

by David Earl

Sam Howell Locked in with Eric Bieniemy?

Many are excited, rightfully so, that Sam Howell looks to be closing in on the idea he is “The Guy” moving forward, with the crowd of “Wait and See” quickly dwindling. Let’s be honest: the fans should see hope, here especially with Dan Snyder out and a favorable offseason ahead.  I’ll talk more about that later. Right now, though, let’s look at what the numbers say thusfar:

  • Weeks 1-7: Howell completed 167 of 256 attempts, 65.23% completion percentage, 1,749 yards at 6.83 yards per attempt, 9 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 40 sacks, which is 5.7 per game. In those 7 games, his quarterback rating was 85.2.
  • Weeks 8-10: Howell completed 97 of 141 attempts, 68.79% completion percentage, 1,034 yards at 7.33 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and 7 sacks, which is 2.3 per game. In those 3 games, his quarterback rating was 103.

As you can clearly see, Howell’s numbers have improved across the board, including mostly importantly, in interceptions and sacks. His interception rate went from 1 per game, although his 4 interceptions in the Buffalo game inflates this number, to a .67 rate over the last 3 games. Also, he went from averaging 5.7 sacks per game to 2.3 after a few changes up front on the offensive line combined with a more decisive approach post-snap. All this happened during a time in which Eric Bieniemy increased Howell’s passing load with more of the short quick passing game.

In weeks 1 through 7, Washington passed the ball at a 67.43% rate, whereas over the last 3 games, it was at a 71.50% rate.  This number moves to 74.33% if Howell’s runs are removed. During those same games as mentioned above, Washington’s sack rate dropped from 10.59% to 4.73%, confirming the offensive line change combined with a more decisive Howell has been successful. Granted, the results are a 1-2 record but Howell, in consecutive weeks, posted a passer rating greater than 110 while under pressure.

I’m not going to go too much more into Howell’s numbers as I did last week, but his development and improvement under Bieniemy raises an interesting question: are Howell and Bieniemy tied together, minus a catastrophic breakdown these next few weeks? That depends on whether you weigh the importance of development and continuity over Josh Harris allowing a potential new general manager to dictate where this team goes. Moving on from Bieniemy would mean that Howell would need to learn his 3rd offensive scheme in as many years as a pro, which is certainly not ideal.

Although, in my opinion, Bieniemy’s playcalling is not sustainable over the long term, specifically passing the ball at a near 70% ratio, it is true that Howell has begun to flourish. If Harris were to keep Bieniemy going forward, the new general manager would need to accommodate his offensive philosophy, while beefing up the offensive line and improving the skill position players. More specifically, the tight end and running back positions will need impact players in the mold of Travis Kelce and a receiving back like Austin Ekeler. Opening up this offense without a consistent running game will mean that it is imperative to protect Howell, and these types of caliber players will do just that at some degree for Washington.

Potential Incoming General Manager

Yes. Right now, it’s only a “potential” new general manager because until it happens it’s only speculation. Personally, I am confident Josh Harris will hire a general manager, but will that be after hiring Eric Bieniemy as head coach, or will he allow the new general manager to decide on the head coach? This will be a pivotal decision for Harris because hiring Bieniemy as head coach first will remove candidates immediately off that list. Many general managers want full autonomy over the team, and that certainly includes who they want as head coach. That decision typically comes through the general manager’s philosophy of building a team.

The style of scheme Bieniemy runs won’t conform to a general manager with more of a defensive mindset and a more focused ball control offense. Granted, this day and age of the NFL is a very pass-friendly league, but at a rate of nearly 70% pass attempts per game may still be too excessive. Keeping Bienemy around will require a front office structure that will focus many resources, including cap space, on the offensive side of the ball. This front office, through strong evaluations, must find both the mid to late-round defensive contributors and bargain defensive players through free agency to surround a couple of key high-impact defensive players. Therefore, this general manager search becomes more defined and complex.

If Josh Harris hires a general manager first and gives him full autonomy, then it’s that GM’s philosophy the team is buying into, and not the head coach you hired first. In this scenario, the new front office will evaluate Bieniemy, Howell, and the structure of the team in order to make a schematic or philosophical decision. In this scenario, they will determine for themselves whether the system and coaching of Howell not only dictated his development, but also whether Sam’s career progression is reliant on both currently in place. Essentially, they will decide if he is a system quarterback or if he is flexible enough to fit in other NFL systems. It is here where I’d imagine one point in favor of Bieniemy being hired is strongly considered. If Howell is reliant on the system and the coaching Bieniemy brings to the table, at this point, the focus would shift to his ability to become the next head coach. Depending on that decision it will certainly decide on Howell’s future here as the team’s franchise quarterback.

These are two of many possible decisions Harris will face after this season. Fans have voiced their thoughts on this current staff in place, and it’s become clear many are ready for a change and a new vision for this team. The split in the fans is whether they hire Bieniemy or a general manager first. Regardless of the future, this ownership group has to be pleased with Howell’s recent development and surely hope he continues this upward progression. Just think how great it would be for them to not only buy this franchise but also not need to search for a franchise quarterback. As far as myself, I think they should hire a general manager first, and if that means Bieniemy is gone and they draft a new quarterback, so be it. I just want to see this team function like a proper organization again.

Defense Awful Yet No Changes

We are all fully aware of the defensive stats under Jack Del Rio this season and not it is not because of losing Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Although the pass rush against the Seahawks was non-existent, the overall performance remained essentially the same as in previous weeks. They are one of the worst defenses in yards allowed per game and ranked 22nd in first downs given up. The big plays allowed once again were a backbreaker for this team. As Grant Paulsen pointed out, shown below, this defense had maybe its worst performance this season, which is clearly an effect of losing Young and Sweat since the lack of pass rush against Seattle compounded everything negatively.

That said, plus other schematic issues such as still aligning linebackers in coverage against slot wide receivers, Ron Rivera still makes no changes.  Buffalo just fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Will a change in defensive coordinator fix what is plaguing Washington’s defense? No, but it’s just the aspect of accountability or lack thereof, as we all have mentioned in the past. It is true players need to execute on the field yet, in four years, nothing seems to change defensively. Logically, at this point, that has point to coaching. Whether it’s the message to the players not being heard or that the scheme itself just doesn’t work, there comes a point when Rivera has to see that a change might be best. He is past that point now and any change right now defensively probably won’t even amount to much except to help to seal Ron’s fate here as the head coach.

Conclusion

In my eyes, the focus of this team for the rest of this season should just be the continuous development of Sam Howell. If everything continues to move in a positive direction, this team is set up perfectly for the 2024 offseason. Having a potential franchise quarterback in place, five picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, no hideous contracts to get out from under, and plenty of cap space makes for an appealing situation for any available general manager or head coach. Although, for some crazy reasons, there are fans who believe Ron Rivera should stay, which is baffling. Rivera is a great person and has done great for team culture but the product on the field is not much better than it was 4 years ago. Finding Sam Howell should not, in any way, save his job, especially when Howell was there at the 120th overall pick, yet he traded back to pick 144. If Eric Bieniemy adjusts and adapts his philosophy for the better, he will certainly deserve the opportunity to become the next head coach for Washington, but only if the new general manager agrees to hire him in that role.