2024 NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview

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January 12, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Welcome to the playoffs, everyone!  It’s yet another year in which Washington is sitting at home watching, of course, but that’s par for the course at this point.  Maybe next year…?  For now, though, enjoy rooting for the non-Washington teams of your choice.  We’ll keep up the previews through the Super Bowl.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13 – 4; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Buffalo Bills (11 – 6; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (11 – 6; 1st, AFC West)
  4. Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC North)
  6. Miami Dolphins (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC East)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC North)

NFC

  1. San Francisco 49ers (12 – 5; 1st, NFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 1st, NFC East)
  3. Detroit Lions (12 – 5; 1st, NFC North)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 – 8; 1st, NFC South)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (11 – 6; 2nd, NFC East)
  6. Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 2nd, NFC West)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC North)

2024 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday, Jan. 13

4:30 p.m. ET – Browns (#5) at Texans (#4) (NBC, Peacock, Telemundo)

8:00 p.m. ET – Dolphins (#6) at Chiefs (#3) (Peacock)

Sunday, Jan. 14

1:00 p.m. ET – Steelers (#7) at Bills (#2) (CBS, Paramount +)

4:30 p.m. ET – Packers (#7) at Cowboys (#2) (Fox, Fox Deportes)

8:00 p.m. ET – Rams (#6) at Lions (#3) (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

Monday, Jan. 15

8:00 p.m. ET – Eagles (#5) at Buccaneers (#4) (ESPN, ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 20

TBD vs TBD

TBD vs TBD

Sunday, Jan. 21

TBD vs TBD

TBD vs TBD

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 28

AFC (CBS)

NFC (Fox)

Super Bowl LVIII

Sunday, Feb. 11

6:30 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada (CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon, Paramount+, Vix, NFL+, NFL.com, NFL App)

Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched R&B act instead of something different because the NFL had to hire a washed-up rapper to program the halftime show  Usher

Game Previews

Browns  (#5) at Texans (#4)  

Early line: Browns, -2.5

The Browns’ offense has somehow managed to score a decent amount of points this season, 396, which is ranked 11th in the NFL, despite having chaos at the quarterback position and only one player who touches the ball, wide receiver Amari Cooper, being above-average at his position.  They had five different starters at quarterback this year, but will go with Joe Flacco this week.  Flacco played and started 5 games, winning 4, and had 123 completions in 204 attempts, a 60.3% completion percentage, 1616 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, for a 90.2 quarterback rating.  Jerome Ford is their leading rusher, with 204 carries for 813 yards, which is an average of 4.0 yards per carry.  Cooper has 72 receptions for 1250 yards, 17.4 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns; however, as a whole Cleveland’s passing game is the least efficient in the NFL by many measures.  Their run game is also inefficient, at just 3.9 yards per carry, which is ranked 25th.  Defensively, Cleveland’s defense allowed 362 points this season, ranked 13th; however, they feature perhaps the most effective pass defense in the NFL, ranked 1st in yards, yards per game, completion percentage, and quarterback hits, 2nd in opposing quarterback rating, and 3rd in interceptions.  However, they are merely average in rushing defense, surrendering 4.3 yards per carry, which is ranked 21st.  Therefore, the Browns defense will be most effective against a passing-based offense.

The Houston Texans are just such an offense, featuring probable offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud at quarterback, but without a substantial running game.  Stroud played 15 games, and completed 319 passes in 499 attempts, for a 63.9% completion percentage, 4108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, for a quarterback rating of 100.8.  Nico Collins in the leading receiver, by alot, with 80 receptions for 1297 yards, 16.2 yards per reception, and 8 touchdowns.  As a team, Houston averages just 3.7 yards per carry, which is ranked 29th in the NFL.  However, the leading rusher, Devin Singletary, is slightly better, with 898 yards in 216 carries, 4.2 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns.  The Texans are the best kick return team in the league and returned 2 kickoffs for touchdowns this year.  Defensively, the Texans gave up 353 points, ranked 11th.  They have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, surrendering just 3.5 yards per carry, which is ranked 2nd.  Their pass defense is mediocre, with an opposing quarterback rating of 90.1, ranked 18th.

The Browns defeated the Texans in Houston in week 16 by a score of 36 – 20; however, C.J. Stroud did not play in this game due to injury.

Steve’s prediction: These are two teams who both play well against each other, going strength on strength and weakness on weakness.  The better feel-good story would be for C.J. Stroud to lift up the Texans to victory, but objectively, I have to give the nod to the Browns.  Cleveland wins 27 – 24.

Dolphins (#6) at Chiefs (#3)

Early line: Chiefs, -3.5

The Dolphins have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.  They scored 496 points this season, second only to the Dallas Cowboys, and were #1 in total yards gained, passing yards gained, and rushing yards per carry.  Tua Tagovailoa is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, with a 69.3% completion percentage, 29 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 101.1 quarterback rating.  Their #1 running back, Raheem Mosert, averaged 4.8 yards per carry on 209 attempts, for 1019 yards.  Tyreek Hill had 119 receptions for 1799 receiving yards, plus 13 touchdowns.  They are an extremely effective offense.  Defensively, Miami is much less effective: they gave up 391 points, ranked 22nd.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined 93.0 quarterback rating, ranked 24th.  Their rushing defense is better – they only gave up an average of 3.8 yards per carry, ranked 8th.

The Chiefs have been a bit of a disappointment this year in some ways, at least by their lofty standards.  They scored 371 points this season, ranked 15th.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 4183 yards, a 67.2% completion percentage, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, for a 92.6 quarterback rating.  Kansas City’s leading rusher was Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 935 yards at an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  Mr. Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, was the leading receiver with 984 yards in 93 receptions.  Defensively, the Chiefs surrendered just 294 points, which was the second-least in the NFL behind the Ravens.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of 83.6, ranked 8th in the league.  They have a fairly bad rushing team, with opposing teams having averaged 4.5 yards per carry, ranked 26th in the NFL.

The Chiefs defeated the Dolphins in Kansas City in week 9 by a score of 21 – 14.

Steve’s prediction: The Dolphins have been on a bit of a downturn of late, having lost their last two games.  The Chiefs are an experienced playoff team that isn’t going to go out in Wild Card weekend.  Chiefs win 24 – 17.

Steelers (#7) at Bills (#2)

Early line: Bills, -10

The Steelers offense scored just 304 points, which was ranked 28th in the NFL.  They averaged 4.1 yards per carry as a team, ranked 20th.  Third string quarterback Mason Rudolph will start this game due to injury.  Rudolph played in 4 games this season, starting 3, completing 55 of 74 pass attempts for 719 yards, and 3 touchdowns, for a quarterback rating of 71.2. Najee Harris is the team’s leading rusher, with 1035 yards in 255 attempts, for an average of 4.1 yards per carry.  George Pickens is the leading receiver, with 63 receptions for 1140 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Pittsburgh was more successful on defense, having given up just 324 points, ranked 6th in the NFL.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined 84.7 quarterback rating, which was ranked 10th, and 4.3 yards per carry, ranked 21st.

The Bills scored 451 points this season, ranked 6th, and averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team, which was ranked 13th in the NFL.  Quarterback Josh Allen completed 385 passes in 579 attempts, for 4306 yards and a 66.5% completion percentage, 29 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and a 92.2 quarterback rating.  Buffalo’s leading rusher is James Cook, who had 237 carries for 1122 yards, for an average of 4.7 yards per carry.  Allen had 111 carries for 524 yards, for an average of 4.7 yards per carry.  Stefon Diggs was the team’s leading receiver, with 107 receptions, 1183 yards, and 8 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Bills gave up 311 points, ranked 4th.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined quarterback rating of 81.9, ranked 7th.  They gave up 4.6 yards per carry, which was 28th in the league.

The Steelers and Bills did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction: This game is going to be the least competitive of the entire weekend.  The Bills offense is way too much for the Steelers, and Pittsburgh is starting their third strong quarterback, and their running game isn’t good enough to compete.  Bills win, 30 – 17.

Packers (#7) at Cowboys (#2)  

Early line: Cowboys, -7.5

The Packers scored 383 points this season, ranked 12th.  Quarterback Jordan Love completed 372 passes in 579 attempts, for a 64.2% completion percentage, 4159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, for a 96.1 quarterback rating.  Packers quarterbacks were only sacked 30 times this season, which is 3rd least in the NFL.  Aaron Jones was the leading rusher, with 656 yards in 142, for an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  As a team, the Packers rushed for 4.3 yards per carry.  The Packers don’t have any receivers who are in the NFL’s “elite” class, but Jayden Reed is the leading receiver, with 64 receptions for 793 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Packers gave up 350 points, ranked 10th.  Opposing quarterbacks collectively posted a 94.7 quarterback rating this season, which was 25th, and a 65.4% completion percentage.  They also surrendered 4.4 yards per carry on the ground, ranked 22nd.

The Cowboys were the top-scoring offense in the league this season, with 509 points.  Quarterback Dak Prescott had an All-Pro caliber year, completing 410 passes in 590 attempts, for a 69.5% completion percentage, 4516 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, for a 105.9 quarterback rating.  As a team Dallas rushed for just 4.1 yards per carry, ranked 20th.  Tony Pollard was their leading rusher with 1005 yards, but he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry.  However, receiver CeeDee Lamb also had an All-Pro caliber season, with 135 receptions for 1749 yards, 13.0 yards per reception, and 12 touchdowns.  Dallas’ defense surrendered 315 points, which was ranked 5th in the league.  Their opposing quarterback rating was 80.8, good for 6th in the league.  The gave 4.2 yards per carry on the groun.

The Packers and Cowboys did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

The Packers are a good team that finished on a roll, with three straight victories, albeit over two bad teams in Carolina and Chicago.  However, Dallas is elite and was undefeated at home this season.  Cowboys win 30 – 20.

Rams (#6) at Lions (#3)

Early line: Lions, -3.5

The Rams scored a total of 404 points this season.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford, formerly with the Lions, played 15 games and completed 326 of 521 passes, a 62.6% completion percentage, 3965 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, for 92.5 quarterback rating.  Kyren Williams was one of the more productive principal running backs in the league, gaining 1144 yards in just 228 carries, which is an average of 5.0 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns.  As a team, Detroit rushed for 4.6 yards per carry, which was ranked 5th in the NFL.  Rookie receiver Puka Nacua was the leading receiver, by far, with 105 receptions for 1486 yards and 6 touchdowns.  On defense, the Rams allowed 367 points, ranked 13th, 4.2 yards per carry, ranked 18th, and an 88.0 opposing quarterback rating.

The Lions scored 461 points, which was 5th in the NFL.  Jared Goff, the former Rams quarterback, completed 407 passes in 605 attempts this season, for a 67.3% completion percentage, 4575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, for a 97.9 quarterback rating.  Running back David Montgomery rushed for 1015 yards in 219 attempts, for a 4.6 yards per carry average, and 13 touchdowns.  As a team, Detroit gained 4.6 yards per carry, ranked 5th.  Amon-Ra St. Brown was the leading receiver, with 119 receptions for 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Tight end Sam LaPorta was also a significant contributor, with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Defensively, Detroit surrendered 395 points, which was ranked 23rd, and 3.7 yards per carry, third-best in the league.  Their pass defense isn’t as successful, with opposing quarterbacks earning a 91.5 quarterback rating, ranked 21st.

The Rams and Lions did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

The Rams won 7 of 8 games after their bye week, including victories over 2 playoff teams in Cleveland and San Fransisco.  They are a good but not great team.  Detroit’s run game will carry the day at home, and the Lions will win 24 – 20.

Eagles (#5) at Buccaneers (#4)

Early line: Eagles, -2.5

The Eagles are in the midst of an epic tailspin, having started the season at 10 – 1, then losing 5 of their last 6, while looking terrible in the process.  As a result, this is a team in which the overall season stats matter significantrly less than whether Philadelphia can get back to a level of play commensurate with that of a legitimate playoff team.  On the season, they scored 433 points, ranked 7th in the NFL.  Of those 433 points, they scored 224 in the first eight games, which is 51.7% of the points scored on the season.  In the final 8 games, i.e., weeks 11 – 18, eliminating their week 9 game against Dallas, they scored 181 points, or 41.8% of the total.  On defense, the Eagles gave up 428 total points, ranked 30th.  In their first eight games, they surrendered 172 points, which is 40.2% of the total.  In the final 8 games, which is weeks 11 – 18, they gave up 233 points, which is 54.4% of the total.  Those stats vividly show just how much the Eagles fell off a cliff in the second half of the season.  Unless the Eagles can reverse this trend, they simply won’t win.  Jalen Hurts finished the season with 352 completions in 538 attempts, a 65.4% completion percentage, 3858 yards, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and an 89.1 quarterback rating.  Starting running back D’Andre Swift had 1049 yards in 229 attempts, for an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were both elite-level receivers, with 1456 yards in 106 catches and 1066 yards in 81 receptions, respectively.  On defense, opposing quarterbacks earned a combined quarterback rating of 97.6, ranked 29th.  They allowed 4.3 yards per carry on the ground, ranked 21st.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, finished strong, winning 5 of their last 6 games.  They scored 348 points this season, ranked 20th in the league.  Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield went 364 for 566 on the season, for a 64.3% completion percentage, 4044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, for a 94.6 quarterback rating.  As a team, they rushed for just 3.4 yards per carry, which was the worst in the NFL.  Rachaad White was their leading rusher with 990 yards in 272 carries, which was an average of 3.6 yards per carry.  Five-time Pro Bowler Mike Evans was the leading receiver as measured by yardage gained, with 79 receptions for 1255 yards and 13 touchdowns.  Chris Godwin had 83 receptions for 1024 yards and 2 touchdowns.  On defense, the Buccaneers gave up 325 yards, ranked 7th.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined quarterback rating of 92.0, ranked 22nd.  They gave up 3.8 yards per carry, which was ranked 7th.

The Eagles defeated the Buccaneers in Philadelphia in week 3 by a score of 25 – 11.

Steve’s prediction:

The bottom line here is that if the Eagles play like they did in the first half of the season, they probably win.  However, I don’t have a reason to think that’s going to happen, so Tampa Bay wins this game 29 – 20.