2024 NFL Divisional Round Weekend Preview

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January 19, 2023

by Steve Thomas

We had an exciting Wild Card weekend, with plenty of fun games to watch, but at the end of the day, only one of them featured a truly surprising result.  Very few were able to foresee the Packers demolishing the Cowboys, which was a fun game for Washington fans.  As a gift for winning that contest, Green Bay now must face the top-seeded 49ers.  The other NFC game, Tampa Bay at Detroit, features the team that, nationally, is probably the feel-good story of the year in the Lions, given their multiple decades of Washington-like despair.  In the AFC, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have a few seasons of playoff disappointment to overcome, and will face a pretty significant challenge this week in another good story in the form of C.J. Stroud and the Texans.  The final game of the week, Chiefs at Bills, is a rematch, which is always exciting.  It should be a good weekend of playoff football for everyone.  Our preview begins below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13 – 4; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Buffalo Bills (11 – 6; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (11 – 6; 1st, AFC West)
  4. Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC North)
  6. Miami Dolphins (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC East)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC North)

NFC

  1. San Francisco 49ers (12 – 5; 1st, NFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 1st, NFC East)
  3. Detroit Lions (12 – 5; 1st, NFC North)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 – 8; 1st, NFC South)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (11 – 6; 2nd, NFC East)
  6. Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 2nd, NFC West)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC North)

2024 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

 

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 20

4:30 p.m. ET – Houston Texas (#4) at Baltimore Ravens (#1) (ESPN, ABC, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)

8:15 p.m. ET – Green Bay Packers (#7) at San Fransisco 49ers (#1) (Fox, Fox Deportes)

Sunday, Jan. 21

3:00 p.m. ET – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#4) at Detroit Lions (#3) (NBC, Peacock, Universo)

6:30 p.m. ET – Kansas City Chiefs (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#2) (CBS, Paramount+)

 

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 28

3:00 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS, Paramount+)

6:30 p.m. ET – NFC (Fox, Fox Deportes)

 

Super Bowl LVIII

Sunday, Feb. 11

6:30 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada (CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon, Paramount+, Vix, NFL+, NFL.com, NFL App)

Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched R&B act instead of something different because the NFL had to hire a washed-up rapper to program the halftime show  Usher

Game Previews

Texans (#4) (10 – 7) at Ravens (#1) (13 – 4)  

Early line: Ravens, -9

The Houston Texans feature probable offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud at quarterback, but without a substantial running game.  Stroud played 15 games, and completed 319 passes in 499 attempts, for a 63.9% completion percentage, 4108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, for a quarterback rating of 100.8.  Nico Collins in the leading receiver, by alot, with 80 receptions for 1297 yards, 16.2 yards per reception, and 8 touchdowns.  As a team, Houston averages just 3.7 yards per carry, which is ranked 29th in the NFL.  However, the leading rusher, Devin Singletary, is slightly better, with 898 yards in 216 carries, 4.2 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns.  The Texans are the best kick return team in the league and returned 2 kickoffs for touchdowns this year.  Defensively, the Texans gave up 353 points, ranked 11th.  They have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, surrendering just 3.5 yards per carry, which is ranked 2nd.  Their pass defense is mediocre, with an opposing quarterback rating of 90.1, ranked 18th.  They defeated the Cleveland Browns in their Wild Card game last week by a score of 45 – 14.  In that game, Stroud went 16 for 21 for 274 yards, 3 touchdowns, for a 157.2 quarterback rating. The Texans also had two pick six touchdowns.

The Ravens scored 483 this season, which was ranked 4th.  Quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is the leading contender for league MVP this season, played 16 games, and completed 307 passes in 457 attempts, for a 67.2% completion percentage, 3678 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, for a 102.7 quarterback rating.  He was also the team’s leading rusher, with 148 rushes for 821 yards, for 5.5 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns.  Gus Edwards had 198 carries for 810 yards, 4.1 yards per attempt, and 13 touchdowns.  Zay Flowers was the leading receiver, with 77 receptions for 858 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns.  Tight end Mark Andrews was next, with 45 receptions for 544 yards, 12.1 yards per reception, and 6 touchdowns.  On defense, Baltimore surrendered the lowest number of points in the league, 280, and 5123 yards, ranked 6th.  The have one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, with opposing quarterbacks only earning a combined 74.6 quarterback rating, the lowest in the league, along with a 60.6% opposing completion percentage, ranked 5th, and had 18 interceptions, which was tied for 7th.  In contrast, their rushing defense isn’t good, with opposing teams averaging 4.5 yards per carry, ranked 26th.  They also bad on punt return defense, giving up 13.5 yards per return, which was ranked 31st.

The Ravens defeated the Texans in week 1 by a score of 25 – 9.

Steve’s prediction:

I’d love to call this for Stroud and company, but the Ravens are going to be too much, even considering the success of Houston’s run defense.  Ravens win a close one by a score of 27 – 24.

Packers (#7) (9 – 8) at 49ers (#1) (12 – 5)

Early line: 49ers, -9.5

The Packers scored 383 points this season, ranked 12th.  Quarterback Jordan Love completed 372 passes in 579 attempts, for a 64.2% completion percentage, 4159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, for a 96.1 quarterback rating.  Packers quarterbacks were only sacked 30 times this season, which is 3rd least in the NFL.  Aaron Jones was the leading rusher, with 656 yards in 142, for an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  As a team, the Packers rushed for 4.3 yards per carry.  The Packers don’t have any receivers who are in the NFL’s “elite” class, but Jayden Reed is the leading receiver, with 64 receptions for 793 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Packers gave up 350 points, ranked 10th.  Opposing quarterbacks collectively posted a 94.7 quarterback rating this season, which was 25th, and a 65.4% completion percentage.  They also surrendered 4.4 yards per carry on the ground, ranked 22nd. The Packers destroyed the Cowboys by a score of 48 – 32 in Dallas in last week’s Wild Card game.

San Francisco scored 491 points this season, which was ranked third in the NFL.  Mr. Irrelevant, quarterback Brock Purdy, played and started 16 games, with 308 completions in 444 attempts, for a 69.4% completion percentage, 4280 yards, 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 113.0 quarterback rating.  San Fransisco has three big-time receiving targets, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel.  Aiyuk had 75 receptions for 1342 yards, 17.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns.  Kittle had 65 receptions, 15.7 yards per receptions, and 6 touchdowns.  Samuel had 60 receptions for 892 yards, 14.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns, plus another 37 carries for 225 yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, and 5 touchdowns.  The 49ers made the least number of pass attempts, and the 8th-most rushing attempts, in the league this season.  On defense, San Fransisco gave up 298 points this season, ranked 3rd.  Opposing offenses passed for an average 66.0% completion percentage, ranked 21st, and a 79.6 quarterback rating, ranked 4th.  The main reason for the disparity between their relatively high opposing completion percentage and their low quarterback rating is because they had 22 interceptions this season, tied for best in the NFL.  On the ground, opposing offenses averaged 4.1 yards per carry, ranked 14th.

The Packers and the 49ers did not face each other this season.

Steve’s prediction:

I have no statistical rational for this, but I’m going to call an upset here.  The 49ers went through stretches this season in which they didn’t perform well.  In fact, they lost 2 of their last 3 games, and beat Washington in unimpressive fashion.  Green Bay will continue on a hot streak and stun San Francisco 20 – 17.

Buccaneers (#4) (9 – 8) at Lions (#3) (12 – 5)

Early line: Lions, -6.5

Tampa Bay finished the regular season strong, winning 5 of their last 6 games.  They scored 348 points this season, ranked 20th in the league.  Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield went 364 for 566 on the season, for a 64.3% completion percentage, 4044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, for a 94.6 quarterback rating.  As a team, they rushed for just 3.4 yards per carry, which was the worst in the NFL.  Rachaad White was their leading rusher with 990 yards in 272 carries, which was an average of 3.6 yards per carry.  Five-time Pro Bowler Mike Evans was the leading receiver as measured by yardage gained, with 79 receptions for 1255 yards and 13 touchdowns.  Chris Godwin had 83 receptions for 1024 yards and 2 touchdowns.  On defense, the Buccaneers gave up 325 yards, ranked 7th.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined quarterback rating of 92.0, ranked 22nd.  They gave up 3.8 yards per carry, which was ranked 7th.  Tampa defeated the Eagles on Monday night by a score of 32 – 9.

The Lions scored 461 points, which was 5th in the NFL.  Jared Goff, the former Rams quarterback, completed 407 passes in 605 attempts this season, for a 67.3% completion percentage, 4575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, for a 97.9 quarterback rating.  Running back David Montgomery rushed for 1015 yards in 219 attempts, for a 4.6 yards per carry average, and 13 touchdowns.  As a team, Detroit gained 4.6 yards per carry, ranked 5th.  Amon-Ra St. Brown was the leading receiver, with 119 receptions for 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Tight end Sam LaPorta was also a significant contributor, with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Defensively, Detroit surrendered 395 points, which was ranked 23rd, and 3.7 yards per carry, third-best in the league.  Their pass defense isn’t as successful, with opposing quarterbacks earning a 91.5 quarterback rating, ranked 21st.  The Lions defeated the Rams in the Wild Card round last Sunday evening, in a thriller by a score of 24 – 23.

The Lions defeated the Buccaneers in week 6 by a score of 20 – 6.

Steve’s prediction:

The Lions seem to be clicking on all cylinders and have home field advantage.  Detroit wins a close one, 24 – 20.

Chiefs (#3) (11 – 6) at Bills (#2) (11 – 6)

Early line: Bills, -2.5

The Chiefs were a bit of a disappointment this year in some ways, at least by their lofty standards, in that they didn’t always look elite and lost a couple of games that they probably should’ve won.  They scored 371 points this season, ranked 15th.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 4183 yards, a 67.2% completion percentage, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, for a 92.6 quarterback rating.  Kansas City’s leading rusher was Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 935 yards at an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  Mr. Taylor Swift, a/k/a Travis Kelce, was the leading receiver with 984 yards in 93 receptions.  Defensively, the Chiefs surrendered just 294 points, which was the second-least in the NFL behind the Ravens.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of 83.6, ranked 8th in the league.  They have a fairly bad rushing defense, with opposing teams having averaged 4.5 yards per carry, ranked 26th in the NFL.  The defeated the Miami Dolphins by a score of 26 – 7 in their Wild Card game.

The Bills scored 451 points this season, ranked 6th, and averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team, which was ranked 13th in the NFL.  Quarterback Josh Allen completed 385 passes in 579 attempts, for 4306 yards and a 66.5% completion percentage, 29 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and a 92.2 quarterback rating.  Buffalo’s leading rusher is James Cook, who had 237 carries for 1122 yards, for an average of 4.7 yards per carry.  Allen had 111 carries for 524 yards, for an average of 4.7 yards per carry.  Stefon Diggs was the team’s leading receiver, with 107 receptions, 1183 yards, and 8 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Bills gave up 311 points, ranked 4th.  Opposing quarterbacks earned a combined quarterback rating of 81.9, ranked 7th.  They gave up 4.6 yards per carry, which was 28th in the league.  The Bills defeated the Steelers on Monday by a score of 31 – 17, in a game that was rescheduled from Sunday due to inclement weather.

The Bills defeated the Chiefs in week 14 by a score of 20 – 17.

Steve’s prediction:

The Chiefs aren’t going to go down easily to the Bills just because this game is in Buffalo.  Kansas City probably isn’t what they used to be, but this is still Patriot Mahomes and company.  Chiefs pull a mild upset and win, 30 – 24.