Washington roster review: Offense

January 23, 2024

by Steve Thomas

Since Washington, headed into the offseason, now has a general manager on board and is now barreling down the road to signing up a new head coach, it seemed like a good time to review the team’s roster and figure out exactly where they are in terms of strengths, weaknesses, and needs.  This project is a bit too big to do the entire roster in one column, so I’m going to break this up into a two part series.  I’ll do the offense this week and save the defense for next week.  The object of this effort isn’t to project specific selections in the draft or free agency – we’ll get to that soon – but instead, to see where the team currently is headed for 2024 and generally what they’ll need to do for next season.  Let’s dive right in.

Quarterbacks

This is probably the easiest position group to discuss.  Sam Howell is signed to his rookie contract through 2025, so odds are good that, one way or the other, he’s going to remain in DC next season.  He started all 17 games this season and finished with 388 completions in 612 attempts, for a 63.4% completion percentage, 3946 yards, 21 touchdowns, and a league-leading 21 interceptions, for a 78.9 quarterback rating.  Simply put, even assuming some additional development and a better offensive coordinator, Howell isn’t good enough to be the answer going forward.  Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, so he’ll probably be gone.  Jake Fromm was signed to the active roster in week 16, but there’s no reason to expect Washington to go out of their way to bring him back.  If they do, it will probably be for a minimum value contract to once again be an inexpensive backup.

Prediction: Clearly, Washington is going to need two quarterbacks, so look for the team to spend their second overall pick in round 1 on a quarterback to serve as the franchise leader going forward.  They’ll also sign someone, but it will probably be a player along the lines of Fromm who can sit on the practice squad.

Running backs

Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez will be the two holdovers, and are signed to their rookie contracts through 2025 and 2026, respectively.  Robinson had 178 carries for 733 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns.  Rodriguez had 51 carries for 247 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns.  Antonio Gibson and Alex Armah will be free agents.  Gibson has been a disappointment if viewed as a traditional, between the tackles running back.  This year, he had 65 carries for 265 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown.  His 4.1 yards per carry is the same as his career average, well below his 4.7 yards per carry average in his rookie year, which he has never be able to duplicate.  However, he does have some potential as a hybrid, pass catching and outside back.  Given that the coaching staff and front office will both be new, I think it’s likely that they’ll let him go to free agency, and that would be the right decision, but there’s a small chance that he’ll be back.

Between 1992 and 2023, Washington has had just 6 running backs who were able to average 4.3 yards per carry or more while having at least 200 carries in a season: Adrian Peterson (2019), Alfred Morris (2012, 2013), Clinton Portis (2005, 2008), Ladell Betts (2006), Stephen Davis (1999), and Reggie Brooks (1993).  Lowering the criteria to 150 carries adds Gibson in his rookie year (2020) and Ryan Torain (2010).  The truth is that the team has had very few truly elite runners since the last Super Bowl season in 1991.

Prediction:  Rodriguez, in particular, has potential, but the team will draft at least one running back and sign several more to compete for a spot on the active roster and one or two practice squad spots.  They need to somehow find a franchise-quality running back.

Wide receivers

The team’s #1 receiver, Terry McLaurin, is signed through 2025.  His 2023 season was more or less in line with his career averages: he had 79 receptions for 1002 yards, with 4 touchdowns.  He had 77 receptions in both 2021 and 2022.  It was his yards per reception that took a hit this year – his 12.7 yards per reception was the lowest of his career, with his high coming in at 15.8 as a rookie in 2019, and his next lowest being 12.9 in 2020.  The disparity this season was mostly due to a reduction in his yards before catch, which was just 8.3 this season compared to 10.4 in 2022 and 9.6 in 2021.  Regardless, he’ll doubtlessly be in DC for the foreseeable future.

Jahan Dotson is also signed through 2025.  In 2023, he had 49 receptions, a 59.0% catch rate, for 518 yards,10.6 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns.  In his rookie year, he had 35 receptions for 523 yards, 14.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns, so his performance slipped this year, probably due to shoddy quarterback play.  Dyami Brown is entering the last year of his rookie contract.  Considering that he was a third round pick in 2021, Brown has been a disappointment, with just 29 receptions for 476 yards in his career, including 12 for 168 yards in 2023.  I could see Washington’s new staff possibly cutting Brown in the right circumstances.  Backup Mitchell Tinsley is signed through 2025, but he will obviously need to fight for a roster spot.

Curtis Samuel, Byron Pringle, and Jamison Crowder will all be free agents.  Samuel had 62 receptions for 613 yards, 9.9 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns.

Prediction:  Washington probably won’t spend big on the receiver group given the presence of McLaurin and former first round pick Dotson.  The right staff could find Samuel useful given his varied skillset, but otherwise, look for a turnover of the rest of the position group, probably in the form of low draft picks and mid to low level free agent signings.

Tight ends

This group needs help.  The #1 tight end, Logan Thomas, is 32 years old.  He had 55 receptions for 496 yards in 16 games in 2023, compared to 39 receptions for 323 yards in 14 games in 2022.  His contract runs through 2024, but comes with a cap hit of more than $8.3M.  That’s very high for this level of production, especially considering his age and injury history.  Washington could save $6.5M by cutting Thomas, but they don’t need the cap space, so they might hang onto him for his final year if they can’t find a better option.

As far as the rest of this group, Cole Turner’s rookie contract runs through 2025, and John Bates, Curtis Hodges, and Armani Rogers are signed through 2024.  Brandon Dillon will be a free agent.  None of these players appear to be noteworthy players, either as a traditional inline tight end or a a “joker” tight end, so expect major changes.

Prediction:  Washington is going to make major, sweeping changes to this group.  Expect the team to both spend a fairly high draft pick on a tight end and sign multiple free agents.

Offensive line

This position group is in a world of hurt that needs significant change.  Of the tackles, starting left tackle Charles Leno is signed for one more year, through 2024.  Free agent bust Andrew Wylie is signed through 2025, with a cap hit of $9.4M in 2024, but Cornelius Lucas and Trent Scott will both be free agents.  Leno is at least an average starting left tackle; the others are not.

Of the interior linemen, Nick Gates and Chris Paul are both signed through 2025, and Samuel Cosmi is signed through 2024.  Braeden Daniels, who was one of Ron Rivera’s most head-scratching draft picks, is on his rookie contract through 2026, as is Ricky Stromberg.  Saahdiq Charles, Julius Good-Jones, and Tyler Larsen are all free agents.

Rivera’s construction of this offensive line was one of the worst aspects of his tenure in Washington.  This entire group needs to be replaced.  Cosmi, who was a draft bust at tackle but demonstrated some worth at guard, is the only one who has possibly shown enough worth to keep.  Fortunately, all of them can be cut without a negative salary cap impact.

Prediction:  Expect massive changes to this position group.  It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Washington will have five new starters for the offensive line next year.  The team could use their first round pick on a left tackle if they can somehow otherwise figure out a non-Howell answer at quarterback.  Regardless, expect several draft picks and free agent signings.  Turmoil will be the name of the game at offensive line this offseason.

That’s it for the offense.  What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section below.  I’ll be back next week to discuss the defense in part 2.