2024 NFL Conference Championship Preview

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January 26, 2023

by Steve Thomas

We had a great set of Divisional Round games last weekend, with the Ravens handing the Texans a loss, the 49ers defeating the Packers, the Lions earning a victory over Tampa Bay, and the Chiefs besting the Buffalo Bills in the final game.  In particular, congratulations to the Lions for getting back to the NFC title game for the first time since 1991, which leaves Washington in first place as the team with the longest draught between conference championship game appearances in the entire NFL.  You’re welcome.  In all seriousness, fans are now set up for a pretty great conference championship weekend, with the Ravens facing the Chiefs and the Lions traveling to San Fransisco.  Enjoy the games, everyone.  Our game previews are below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13 – 4; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Buffalo Bills (11 – 6; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (11 – 6; 1st, AFC West)
  4. Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC North)
  6. Miami Dolphins (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC East)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC North)

NFC

  1. San Francisco 49ers (12 – 5; 1st, NFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 1st, NFC East)
  3. Detroit Lions (12 – 5; 1st, NFC North)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 – 8; 1st, NFC South)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (11 – 6; 2nd, NFC East)
  6. Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 2nd, NFC West)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC North)

2024 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Championship Weekend

Sunday, Jan. 28

3:00 p.m. ET – AFC (CBS, Paramount+) (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Evan Washburn, Jay Feely)

6:30 p.m. ET – NFC (Fox, Fox Deportes) (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)

Super Bowl LVIII

Sunday, Feb. 11

6:30 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada (CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon, Paramount+, Vix, NFL+, NFL.com, NFL App)

Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched R&B act instead of something different because the NFL had to hire a washed-up rapper to program the halftime show  Usher

Game Previews

Chiefs (#3) (11 – 6) at Ravens (#1) (13 – 4)  

Early line: Ravens, -3.5

The Chiefs were a bit of a disappointment this year in some ways, at least by their lofty standards, in that they didn’t always look elite and lost a couple of games that they probably should’ve won.  They scored 371 points this season, ranked 15th.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 4183 yards, a 67.2% completion percentage, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, for a 92.6 quarterback rating.  Kansas City’s leading rusher was Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 935 yards at an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  Mr. Taylor Swift, a/k/a Travis Kelce, was the leading receiver with 984 yards in 93 receptions.  Defensively, the Chiefs surrendered just 294 points, which was the second-least in the NFL behind the Ravens.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of 83.6, ranked 8th in the league.  They have a fairly bad rushing defense, with opposing teams having averaged 4.5 yards per carry, ranked 26th in the NFL.  The defeated the Miami Dolphins by a score of 26 – 7 in their Wild Card game and then defeated the Bills 27 – 24 in Buffalo last Sunday night.

The Ravens scored 483 this season, which was ranked 4th.  Quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is the leading contender for league MVP this season, played 16 games, and completed 307 passes in 457 attempts, for a 67.2% completion percentage, 3678 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, for a 102.7 quarterback rating.  He was also the team’s leading rusher, with 148 rushes for 821 yards, for 5.5 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns.  Gus Edwards had 198 carries for 810 yards, 4.1 yards per attempt, and 13 touchdowns.  Zay Flowers was the leading receiver, with 77 receptions for 858 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns.  Tight end Mark Andrews was next, with 45 receptions for 544 yards, 12.1 yards per reception, and 6 touchdowns.  On defense, Baltimore surrendered the lowest number of points in the league, 280, and 5123 yards, ranked 6th.  The have one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, with opposing quarterbacks only earning a combined 74.6 quarterback rating, the lowest in the league, along with a 60.6% opposing completion percentage, ranked 5th, and had 18 interceptions, which was tied for 7th.  In contrast, their rushing defense isn’t good, with opposing teams averaging 4.5 yards per carry, ranked 26th.  They also bad on punt return defense, giving up 13.5 yards per return, which was ranked 31st. The Ravens defeated the Texans in their divisional round game last week by a score of 34 – 10.

The Chiefs and the Ravens did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

This is going to be a great game, as both teams seem to be playing at peak efficiency at the right time.  However, Lamar Jackson is the X factor here – Kansas City doesn’t have a great rushing defense, and their pass defense is slightly less effective than that of Baltimore.  This game will be a hard fought classic, but 34 – 27.

Detroit Lions (#3) (12 – 5) at 49ers (#1) (12 – 5)

Early line: 49ers, -7

The Lions scored 461 points this season, which was 5th in the NFL.  Jared Goff, the former Rams quarterback, completed 407 passes in 605 attempts this season, for a 67.3% completion percentage, 4575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, for a 97.9 quarterback rating.  Running back David Montgomery rushed for 1015 yards in 219 attempts, for a 4.6 yards per carry average, and 13 touchdowns.  As a team, Detroit gained 4.6 yards per carry, ranked 5th.  Amon-Ra St. Brown was the leading receiver, with 119 receptions for 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Tight end Sam LaPorta was also a significant contributor, with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Defensively, Detroit surrendered 395 points, which was ranked 23rd, and 3.7 yards per carry, third-best in the league.  Their pass defense isn’t as successful, with opposing quarterbacks earning a 91.5 quarterback rating, ranked 21st.  The Lions defeated the Rams in the Wild Card round last Sunday evening, in a thriller by a score of 24 – 23, and then defeated the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round by a score of 31 – 23.

San Francisco scored 491 points this season, which was ranked third in the NFL.  Mr. Irrelevant, quarterback Brock Purdy, played and started 16 games, with 308 completions in 444 attempts, for a 69.4% completion percentage, 4280 yards, 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 113.0 quarterback rating.  San Francisco has three big-time receiving targets, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel.  Aiyuk had 75 receptions for 1342 yards, 17.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns.  Kittle had 65 receptions, 15.7 yards per receptions, and 6 touchdowns.  Samuel had 60 receptions for 892 yards, 14.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns, plus another 37 carries for 225 yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, and 5 touchdowns.  The 49ers made the least number of pass attempts, and the 8th-most rushing attempts, in the league this season.  On defense, San Fransisco gave up 298 points this season, ranked 3rd.  Opposing offenses passed for an average 66.0% completion percentage, ranked 21st, and a 79.6 quarterback rating, ranked 4th.  The main reason for the disparity between their relatively high opposing completion percentage and their low quarterback rating is because they had 22 interceptions this season, tied for best in the NFL.  On the ground, opposing offenses averaged 4.1 yards per carry, ranked 14th.  The 49ers defeated the Packers by a score of 24 – 21 last Saturday.

San Francisco and Detroit did not play each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

The Lions and 49ers are pretty evenly matched in many areas from a statistically perspective.  Christian McCaffrey is probably the best player on the field, but the Lions have an outstanding run defense.  However, San Fransisco may be without Deebo Samuel for this game.  I’m going to cautiously predict a hard-fought Lions upset, 30 – 27.