Free Agency – GM Noone Style
March 8, 2024
By Noonefromtampa
Well, it’s time for Adam Peters to earn the big bucks he is getting paid. Washington has a ton of cap space and a lot of needs on the roster. What should the team do in free agency?Well, here is what General Manager Noone would do. The priority is based on what to do in free agency only, not the draft. Estimated salary information is from Spotrac, although in some cases I think the numbers are a little low.
High Priority – Edge Rusher
After trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young last year, the team needs someone to get after the opposing quarterback for this defense to be productive. As a bonus, the players used to replace them are free agents: James Smith-Williams, Efe Obada, and Casey Toohill.
Plan A – Brian Burns
It does not look like the Panthers and Burns will reach an agreement before free agency starts. Burns has averaged a little over 9 sacks per season with Carolina, with 7.5 his low total and 12.5 the high. He is the most consistent pass rusher that will be available in free agency and will be 26 this coming season. His contract value reflects that: 5 years at $108.7 million or $21.7 million per year.
Plan B – Bryce Huff
Huff is coming off a 10-sack season, the best of his career. Before that his best season sack total was 3.5 sacks, so he has not shown consistent high-level production. He is young, 26 at the start of the 2024 season, and the versatile type of player Dan Quinn will be looking for on defense. His estimated market value is 4 years at $36.8 million or $9.2 million per year.
High Priority – Offensive Line
Between Sam Howell holding the ball too long and the offensive line sloppy pass protection, the Commanders gave up too many sacks last season. No matter who is a quarterback, the team needs a decent offensive line. The problem with free agency is the lack of quality starters at this point in the season.
Plan A – Michael Onwenu, Jonah Williams, and maybe Tyron Smith
Onwenu could be plugged in at left guard. He’ll be 27 this year but will be costly. His estimated market value is for 4 years at $54.6 million or $13.6 million per year.
Williams would take over the right tackle position. He will be 27 for this coming season, his market value is 4 years at $43.3 million or $10.8 million per year.
Smith will be 34 this season but he was excellent in 2023, with only a couple of sacks and penalties to his credit. He has a connection with Dan Quinn but given his age, he’s really only a short-term answer. He would probably be looking for at least $10 million per year on a one or two year deal.
Plan B – Committee Approach
The deal with plan B is instead of paying upwards of $34 million for two to three guys, get an offensive line of players on shorter term deals while you develop talent through the draft. Players to consider in this category are T George Fant, G Jonah Jackson, C Conner Williams, G Kevin Dotson, and T Jermaine Eluemunor.
Medium Priority – Linebacker
Outside of Jamin Davis, Washington doesn’t have another quality starter linebacker on the roster. It showed during many games when the tight end or underneath receiver picked up big gains or the safeties were making tackles 10+ yards up field on run plays.
Plan A – Patrick Queen
Queen is one of the top linebackers in the NFL right now. He has averaged over 110 combined tackles and 75 solo tackles per year since being drafted, while accounting for 3.5 sacks per year. He will be only 25 years old for the 2024 season. His estimated market value is 5 years at $92.6 million or $18.5 million per year.
Plan B – Frankie Luvu
Luvu is a steady grinder type of player versus the flashier Queen. He is a player who developed from an undrafted free agent into someone who has had over 100 combined tackles in the last two years. He will be 28 going into the 2024 season. His market value is 4 years at $45 million or $11.2 million per year.
Medium Priority – Safety
This is a medium priority if the Commanders do not re-sign Kamren Curl. I think the new Washington defensive staff would love to have the versatile Curl back next year, however it is unclear whether his contract demands fit into the team’s budget. Quan Martin could also possibly be used to fill Curl’s role.
Plan A – Xavier McKinney
McKinney is one of the top available safeties in free agency. He will be only 25 this season and was on the Giants this past year. Signing him deprives a rival while strengthening the Commanders, which is a nice bonus. His estimated market value is 5 years at $52.4 million or $10.4 million per year.
Plan B – Jordan Fuller
Fuller is a more traditional free safety player not as versatile as McKinney, where the Rams employed him high in most schemes. He had three interceptions and eight pass defense last season. Fuller will probably come in at the $6 million to $7 million per year range.
Low Priority – Cornerback
The new defensive coaches have a history of turning out good secondary people. With Emmanuel Forbes and Martin as the round 1-2 punch in the secondary last year, I think free agency will be used to get a veteran cornerback to fill a role. Two exceptions to this are, one, if the team decides it wants to bring back Kendall Fuller, who had a solid season last year, and two, if Stephon Gilmore decides he wants to follow the defensive staff to Washington and gets a reasonable salary. There would be room for one of these players, but it would cost the team a player in another position group.
Plan A – Kenny Moore II
Moore is a smaller cornerback who plays the slot well and is a good tackler. He has 17 interceptions and 55 pass defenses in his 7-year career. Moore will be looking for a salary in the $7 million per year range.
Plan B – Keisean Nixon
Nixon is a two-for-one player. He is a return man as well as cornerback. Nixon is an average cornerback and an above average returner. The combination of the two skills makes him attractive to teams. Nixon’s salary will likely be in the $2 million to $3 million range.
Low Priority – Wide Receiver
The Commanders return Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Dyami Brown. The team most likely will add a receiver in the draft, probably on day 3. The team is losing veterans Curtis Samuel, Jamison Crowder, and Brian Pringle, so signing another veteran is a likely occurrence. Just don’t expect them to sign Michael Pittman Jr. or Gabe Davis.
Plan A – DJ Chark
Chark would be a bigger receiver option at 6’3” tall. A former second round pick of the Jaguars in 2018, he has been with the Lions and Panthers the past two seasons. Chark had five touchdowns and 22 receptions for a first down last season on 35 catches. His value is around $10 million for one year.
Plan B – Parris Campbell
Campbell’s numbers went down last season with the Giants after having a decent year with the Colts in 2022. He would be a more economical choice at about $3.5 million for one year.
Low Priority – Tight End
Even after releasing Logan Thomas, I don’t see this as a high priority for the team, mainly because of the overall mediocre level of talent available in this position group. The Commanders have John Bates, Cole Turner and Amarni Rogers on the roster and have now added Zach Ertz.
Plan A – Dalton Schultz
Right now, Schultz is the premium player available in free agency at tight end. His market value is 3 years at $34 million or $11.3 million per year. For that, he brings about 55 receptions with 29 of those for first downs and four touchdowns per year on average. Schultz will be 28 this season. [Note: Schultz re-signed with the Texans for 3 years at $36 million this week.]
Plan B – Jonnu Smith
Smith was released Atlanta before the start of the league year but is not officially a free agent yet. His average numbers are a little below Schultz and his average salary for one year will be around $9 million. [Note: Smith signed with the Dolphins for 2 years at $10 million this week.]
Commanders signed free agent Zach Ertz to a 1 year deal worth up to $5 million, which shows the low priority placed by the Commanders. I would expect another player to be drafted at this position.
Low Priority – Quarterback
Low priority, are you crazy, Noone? No, I just think that if you’re planning to draft a quarterback in the draft, you either roll with Sam Howell as the backup option or you sign a lower tier free agent QB to be the veteran backup.
Plan A – The Journeyman
Since the offensive scheme is changing, there is not a high priority to bring back Jacoby Brissett, but I would not exclude the scenario of re-signing him either. Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota also fit the bill here. The salary range for these folks is in the $5 million to $8 million per year range.
Plan B – Kirk Cousins
This is the go big or go home option. With Cousins, the team is pretty much deciding to trade back and collect a bunch of picks from some team, while trying to win as many games as possible in 2024. The problem with this warm and fuzzy reunion option is that Cousins will be looking for $35 to $40 million per year on a two- or three-year deal. That will chew up a lot of the free cap space and limit what other players can be signed.
Wrap-Up
Of all the players list here I think the Commanders make a realistic run at three of them Brian Burns, if available, Michael Onwenu and Jonah Williams. Edge rusher and offensive line are two problems that need to be addressed during free agency because of the unpredictability of the draft.
Who are some of your favorite free agents? Feel free to post them in the comments.
Sources: spotrac.com, pro-football-reference.com