Adventures in kicking: measurements of success for Brandon McManus
April 1, 2024
by Steve Thomas
It seems like everyone one of Washington’s head coaches eventually brings in a new kicker. This now includes Dan Quinn, as Washington let Joey Slye, who had the job halfway through the 2021 season through 2023, go to free agency and instead signed Brandon McManus to serve as the placekicker for the 2024 season. This naturally made we wonder what it will take for McManus to be viewed as a success during his tenure in the city that houses the trainwreck that is the federal government the nation’s capital. To arrive at an answer to this question, I thought I’d take a look at what other recent Washington kickers have accomplished during their time with the team in order to establish a baseline of performance for McManus. Let’s look at some stats, which is one of my favorite things to do.
First, McManus has played 161 games over 10 seasons with both the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Over that time, he made a total of 253 field goals in 311 attempts, which equates to an 81.4% conversion percentage. He attempted 84 field goals between 40 and 49 yards, converting 72, which is 85.7%. He made 45 of 82 over 50 yards, which is 54.9%. He has converted 97.2% of his extra point attempts, which obviously includes several years under previous rules which provided for a shorter attempt.
The following chart shows the relevant field goal and extra point statistics for every kicker who played at least 16 games for Washington from 2003 to 2023:
| Player | G | From | To | FGM | FGA | FG% | XPM | XPA | XP% | Pts |
| John Hall | 39 | 2003 | 2006 | 54 | 69 | 78.3 | 75 | 76 | 98.7 | 237 |
| Shaun Suisham | 49 | 2006 | 2009 | 81 | 101 | 80.2 | 86 | 88 | 97.7 | 329 |
| Graham Gano | 36 | 2009 | 2011 | 59 | 80 | 73.8 | 59 | 61 | 96.7 | 236 |
| Kai Forbath | 41 | 2012 | 2015 | 60 | 69 | 87 | 91 | 93 | 97.8 | 271 |
| Dustin Hopkins | 93 | 2015 | 2021 | 163 | 194 | 84 | 179 | 190 | 94.2 | 668 |
| Joey Slye | 40 | 2021 | 2023 | 56 | 66 | 84.8 | 65 | 73 | 89 | 233 |
My original concept was to go back to 2004 in order to evaluate an even 20 years, but I moved it back one additional year to 2003 in order to include John Hall’s entire tenure in Washington. The first thing you should see is that, overall, Kai Forbath was Washington’s best kicker over the last 20 years, and it isn’t especially close. He converted 87% of his field goal attempts over the course of 41 games in four years, which is 2.2% better than the second place participant, Joey Slye., and 3% over Dustin Hopkins. Hopkins’ 93 games with the Redskins is third-most in franchise history for a kicker, behind only Chip Lohmiller, who played 112 games in 7 season, and Redskins legend Mark Moseley, who played 182 games over 13 seasons.
The following are the conversion rates for each kicker between 40 and 49 yards, and over 50, during each player’s tenure in Washington:
| Player | 40 – 49 yds % | 50+ yds % | 50+ |
| John Hall | 63.6% | 44.4% | 4 for 9 |
| Shaun Suisham | 77.1% | 33.3% | 3 for 9 |
| Graham Gano | 77.8% | 44.4% | 4 for 9 |
| Kai Forbath | 85.1% | 50.0% | 2 for 4 |
| Dustin Hopkins | 80.1% | 51.9% | 14 for 27 |
| Joey Slye | 81.0% | 66.7% | 8 for 12 |
McManus’ overall career numbers fit basically in the middle of this group: his overall 81.4% conversion rate would be ranked 4th of 7. However, he actually comes in first on the 40 – 49 yards category at 85.7%, with only Forbath even close to him. Hopkins is the only kicker who had a statistically relevant sample size for the 50 yards category, and his 51.9% is slightly less than McManus’ 54.9%. Therefore, McManus’ background should give fans hope that he can come in and do fairly well.
The following are the career numbers for each of Washington’s kickers:
| Player | overall | 40 – 49 yds % | 50+ yds % | 50+ |
| John Hall | 74.6% | 59.3% | 46.4% | 13 for 28 |
| Shaun Suisham | 84.1% | 82.8% | 35.3% | 6 for 17 |
| Graham Gano | 83.7% | 82.5% | 67.2% | 43 for 64 |
| Kai Forbath | 86.4% | 86.0% | 63.2% | 12 for 19 |
| Dustin Hopkins | 85.8% | 81.1% | 60.5% | 23 for 28 |
| Joey Slye | 82.3% | 77.8% | 62.5% | 20 for 32 |
What sticks out here is that Graham Gano was significantly below his career averages during his time in Washington. Everyone else’s numbers in Washington were more or less in line with the stats they posted during their career as a whole.
I’m not going to include any sort of kickoff statistics here since the rules have changed over the years, and the rules for the upcoming 2024 season are without precedent. Same with extra points: the rules have changed, and all NFL kickers are going to make the vast bulk of them.
What does all of this mean? Maybe nothing. At a minimum, I think Brandon McManus seems to be well within the acceptable range of necessary statistics to be one of the 32 NFL kickers. His numbers with Jacksonville last year – 81.1% overall, 84.6% (11 for 13) between 40 and 49, and 50% over 50 yards (5 for 10) – are basically right on his career statistics, so I think that’s what Washington can expect. His career average for kicks over 50 yards is well below Gano, Forbath, Hopkins, and Slye, so that may be where Washington loses a bit over his predecessors.
Well Brandon McManus be the second coming of Mark Moseley? Almost certainly not. However, it seems most probable that at a minimum, he’ll be an acceptable kicker for a season.