Washington 2024 Draft Part 2: Team and League History of Drafting QBs
April 19, 2024
by David Earl
Washington’s History at Selecting Quarterbacks
Since the 2000 NFL Draft, Washington has drafted a total of 12 quarterbacks, including 4 in the first round. Only six quarterbacks played any significant amount time, combining for a record of 78-120-1, for a .395 winning percentage, and two playoff games, in which the team was 0-2. These six quarterbacks are listed below:
| Year | Rnd | Pick | Name | Yrs with Team | QB Rec | Playoff Rec | Winning % |
| 2022 | 5 | 1 | Sam Howell | 2 | 5-13-0 | NA | .277 |
| 2019 | 1 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | 2 | 3-10-0 | NA | .230 |
| 2012 | 1 | 2 | Robert Griffin | 3 | 14-21-0 | 0-1 | .400 |
| 2012 | 4 | 7 | Kirk Cousins | 6 | 26-30-1 | 0-1 | .464 |
| 2005 | 1 | 25 | Jason Campbell | 4 | 20-32-0 | NA | .384 |
| 2002 | 1 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey | 4 | 10-14-0 | NA | .417 |
The record of the quarterbacks selected after round 1 has been slightly more productive with a 31-43-1 combined record, which is a .419 winning percentage compared to a 47-77 record, which is a .379 winning percentage. While each quarterback had their reasons for not reaching ultimate success, the main aspect of failure was poor handling by the organization, particularly in development.
- Sam Howell: While his career is still young, He was simply thrown to the wolves behind a terrible offensive line and an offensive philosophy that was equally terrible. Led the league in pass attempts with 612, which resulted in leading the league in interceptions, with 21, and sacks, with 65, while under constant pressure. His career still has time to grow but Washington did him a disservice last season.
- Dwayne Haskins (RIP): A quarterback for whom many were excited, as his only real concern was maturity on the field. One can argue his scenario was worse than even Howell. Haskins was drafted into a situation where the head coach, Jay Gruden, was coaching for his job, yet the owner reportedly forced his will on this selection. Haskins, already starting behind the eight ball, was never developed properly by Gruden or Ron Rivera. However you choose to appoint the blame, there was no denying that Haskins had the tools to be successful in the NFL but this organization ruined yet another career of a young quarterback.
- Kirk Cousins: Amongst this group, the most productive selection for Washington over the course of his career. The biggest knock against him, which still remains, is his ability to produce consistently in big moments. He is ranked 4th all-time for Washington in passing yards with 16,206, top in completion percentage at 65.5%, and 6th in touchdown passes, with 99. The biggest failure here was Bruce Allen’s handling of Cousins, which resulted in him having no interest in resigning with the team.
- Robert Griffin III: He had an electrifying rookie campaign that resulted in the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and a trip to the Pro Bowl. He completed the season with a 65.6 completion percentage, 3,200 yards passing, and a 5.1% / 1.3% touchdown to interception ratio. He added 815 rushing yards, at a rate of 6.8 yards per attempt, and 7 rushing touchdowns while guiding Washington into the postseason. Rushing back after his knee injury, coupled withpoor handling by both the organization as a whole but also Gruden in particular, ended his time in Washington 2 years later.
- Jason Campbell: Campbell never became the franchise quarterback Joe Gibbs hoped for. He certainly underperformed his draft status (25th overall selection). His second year was Washington’s only playoff run, but he was benched in favor of Todd Collins in week 14 heading into the playoffs. He regressed every year afterward. He played under 2 separate offensive coordinators, Don Breaux and Sherman Smith, and 2 very different offensive schemes, Air Coryell and West Coast, but he never truly had the stability a young quarterback needs. Campbell was also a perfect case for sitting a year to fully develop, but he never got that opportunity.
- Patrick Ramsey: Ramsey was never going to get the development needed under Steve Spurrier his first 2 seasons and Joe Gibbs simply wanted a veteran signal caller in Mark Brunell. With the drafting of Jason Campbell the the 2005 NFL Draft, Ramsey was just never afforded the proper opportunity to develop within the organization.
Entering the 2024 NFL Draft, Washington is in a position to rectify the poor decisions of their past. In what is the most important draft of this organization’s history, Adam Peters and his staff need to get the number 2 overall selection right. While rumors may hint towards a trade back to acquire more draft capital, the current opportunity this year to select one of the top quarterbacks in the draft may never materialize for this team again. Whoever Peters selects, the previously mentioned scenarios cannot be the result. Draft a quarterback the staff is on board with, then allow development to happen even if he sits for a year. Maintain continuity offensively and build a professional rapport that will eliminate animosity when it’s time to offer a contract extension. They need to get this selection 100% perfect.
Recent Performance of QB Selected Top 10
Let’s begin with the last 25 Super Bowls, in which non-first round draft quarterbacks won 48% (12 total) of these games. Removing Tom Brady‘s 7 wins leaves non-first round draft quarterbacks winning just 5 of the 18 Super Bowls not won by Brady, which is only 28%. Understanding that Brady was a nearly unique anomaly for a late-round draft quarterback having that kind of success, the numbers prove the value of investing in a first-round quarterback. 72% of Super Bowls not involving Tom Brady were won by first-round quarterbacks. While former first round pick Trent Dilfer was on a Ravens team that dominated defensively, Nick Foles was also a product of fortunate circumstances. However, that’s for another topic, so let’s dive into the production of quarterbacks draft top 10 overall since the 2000 season.
Referencing the list below, since the 2000 season there have been 44 quarterbacks drafted in the top ten. They have a combined winning percentage of .502 (1802-1790-12) in the regular season with a .500 winning percentage (76-76) playoff record winning 6 of 11 participated Super Bowls. Let’s break these numbers down a little further to reflect the draft position for Washington, keeping the timeline from the 2000 season.
Drafting Top 3:
- Number 1 overall selections combined for a .495 regular season winning percentage (878-897-9)
- Number 2 overall selections combined for a .477 regular season winning percentage (149-164)
- Number 3 overall selections combined for a .463 regular season winning percentage (228-246-1). Without Matt Ryan, drafted in 2008, they are a combined .402 regular season winning percentage (104-155).
- Quarterbacks drafted in the top 3 have a combined .468 playoff winning percentage, 44-52, with a 3-4 Super Bowl Record.
Drafting Outside the Top 3 (Picks 4-10):
- They have a combined .541 regular season winning percentage (547-465-2) but, for perspective, a 473-443-2 combined record (.516) without Patrick Mahomes.
- They have a combined .571 playoff winning percentage (32-24) but a 17-21 combined record (.447) without Patrick Mahomes (15-3).
- No quarterback from this group besides Mahomes has been to the Super Bowl and has recorded a 3-1 record.
The overall success rate of players drafted in the top 10 (draft class 2000-2019) can be read in more detail here so I will keep focus on what has already been discussed. So, unless you believe there is another Patrick Mahomes in this draft class or another 7th-round gem like Brady, remaining at pick 2 is the most optimal decision for this organization. Excluding Mahomes, again for perspective, the quarterbacks drafted outside the top 3 have a worse playoff winning percentage, .447 compared to .468. In addition, they have not been to a Super Bowl whereas the quarterbacks drafted in top 3 have been to seven (3-4 record). Yes, the regular season winning percentage outside the top 3 is above .500 where as none of the top 3 selections even record a combined winning percentage above .500; however, that typically is the result of being drafted into a better situation. When these quarterbacks had the opportunity to produce in the postseason, they only had Mahomes’ success to lean on, which is all that matters.
Quick Note: Those who believe in moving back 1 spot to number 3 may want to rethink that idea. Unless you are certain that pick 3 is a Matt Ryan-type of quarterback, the drop off in overall winning percentage from the second overall selection to third is a -.075 winning percentage. The regular season’s combined winning percentage for the second overall selection is .477 whereas the third overall selection (without Matt Ryan) has a .402 combined winning percentage. Stay where you are and select the next best quarterback, which is Jayden Daniels.
| Year | Rnd | Pick | Name | Team | Years Exp. | QB Rec | Playoff Rec | SB Rec |
| 2023 | 1 | 1 | Bryce Young | Panthers | 1 | 2-14-0 | NA | NA |
| 1 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | Texans | 1 | 9-6-0 | 1-1 | NA | |
| 2022 | 1 | 20 | Kenny Pickett | Steelers | 2 | 14-10-0 | NA | NA |
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 3 | 20-30-0 | 1-1 | NA |
| 1 | 2 | Zach Wilson | Jets | 3 | 12-21-0 | NA | NA | |
| 1 | 3 | Trey Lance | 49ers | 3 | 2-2-0 | NA | NA | |
| 2020 | 1 | 1 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | 4 | 29-22-1 | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 4 | 32-19-0 | 0-1 | NA | |
| 1 | 6 | Justin Herbert | Chargers | 4 | 30-32-0 | 0-1 | NA | |
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | Kyler Murray | Cardinals | 5 | 28-36-1 | 0-1 | NA |
| 1 | 6 | Daniel Jones | Giants | 5 | 22-36-1 | 1-1 | NA | |
| 2018 | 1 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | Browns | 6 | 40-46-0 | 2-2 | NA |
| 1 | 3 | Sam Darnold | Jets | 6 | 21-35-0 | NA | NA | |
| 1 | 7 | Josh Allen | Bills | 6 | 63-30-0 | 5-5 | NA | |
| 1 | 10 | Josh Rosen | Cardinals | 3 | 3-13-0 | NA | NA | |
| 2017 | 1 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | Bears | 7 | 31-26-0 | 0-2 | NA |
| 1 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 7 | 74-22-0 | 15-3 | 3-1 | |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | Jared Goff | Rams | 8 | 66-50-1 | 4-4 | 0-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Carson Wentz | Eagles | 8 | 47-45-1 | 0-1 | NA | |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | Jameis Winston | Buccaneers | 9 | 34-46-0 | NA | NA |
| 1 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | Titans | 9 | 34-40-0 | 1-1 | NA | |
| 2014 | 1 | 3 | Blake Bortles | Jaguars | 6 | 24-49-0 | 2-1 | NA |
| 1 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | Browns | 2 | 2-6-0 | NA | NA | |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Colts | 6 | 53-33-0 | 4-4 | NA |
| 1 | 2 | Robert Griffin | Redskins | 7 | 16-26-0 | 0-1 | NA | |
| 1 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | Dolphins | 11 | 81-70-0 | 2-3 | NA | |
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | Cam Newton | Panthers | 11 | 75-68-1 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| 1 | 8 | Jake Locker | Titans | 4 | 9-14-0 | NA | NA | |
| 1 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Jaguars | 12 | 14-35-0 | NA | NA | |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | Sam Bradford | Rams | 8 | 34-48-1 | NA | NA |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Lions | 15 | 98-107-1 | 4-4 | 1-0 |
| 1 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | Jets | 8 | 37-36-0 | 4-2 | NA | |
| 2008 | 1 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Falcons | 15 | 124-109-1 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| 2007 | 1 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Raiders | 3 | 7-18-0 | NA | NA |
| 2006 | 1 | 3 | Vince Young | Titans | 6 | 31-19-0 | 0-1 | NA |
| 1 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Cardinals | 6 | 8-10-0 | NA | NA | |
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | Alex Smith | 49ers | 14 | 99-67-1 | 2-5 | NA |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | Eli Manning | Chargers | 16 | 117-117-0 | 8-4 | 2-0 |
| 1 | 4 | Philip Rivers | Giants | 17 | 134-106-0 | 5-7 | NA | |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | Carson Palmer | Bengals | 14 | 92-88-1 | 1-3 | NA |
| 1 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | Jaguars | 9 | 24-26-0 | 0-1 | NA | |
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | David Carr | Texans | 10 | 23-56-0 | NA | NA |
| 1 | 3 | Joey Harrington | Lions | 6 | 26-50-0 | NA | NA | |
| 2001 | 1 | 1 | Michael Vick | Falcons | 13 | 61-51-1 | 2-4 | NA |