Can Johnny Newton actually make it in Washington?
May 27, 2024
by Steve Thomas
It isn’t exactly a secret or some sort of revelation for me to say, once again, that I totally disagreed with Washington’s selection of Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton in round 2 of this year’s draft. However, the fact of the matter is that he’s here, so the question transitions to whether he can become a productive member of the team. What’s the long-term prognosis for Newton? I thought I’d dive in to try to at least make an educated guess.
Newton, who grew up in the Clearwater, Florida, area and goes the name “Johnny”, spent four years at the University of Illinois. He started three seasons, playing a total of 44 games, and made 187 total tackles, including 80 solo and 27.5 for loss, and 18 sacks. In 2023, Newton played 12 games and had 52 tackles, including 26 solo and 8.5 for loss, and 7.5 sacks, and was named as a Consensus All-American, and earned the Nagurski-Woodson Defensive Player of the Year Award and the Smith-Brown Defensive Lineman of the Year Award. Newton was unable to participate in the NFL Combine or Illinois’ pro day in order to recover from foot surgery.
The fact of the matter is that Newton is behind two solid, plus-level starters, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Both have cap hits of over $21M this year, increasing next 2025 to $23M and $26M, respectively. However, at that point, Allen becomes a free agent. Allen’s dead cap just $6M in 2025, meaning that the team could save $17M if the team chose to release him. Payne is signed through 2026 at a cap hit of $28M. His dead cap is $25.8M in 2025, so the team would save very little by releasing him in 2025. However, his dead cap falls to $11.2M in 2026, so at that point, his release would save nearly $17M that season. The NFL rules also allow for what is called a “post-June 1” release, in which a dead cap hit imposed in the event of a roster cut is spread out over two years instead of only being put on the first year of release. This means that Washington could hypothetically make a bigger savings in year one if they released either Allen or Payne.
That having been said, Washington doesn’t need more cap space. In fact, a decent argument could be made that the team actually needs to spend more money, not save more. Currently, heading into the 2024 season, Washington has around $42M in free cap space, a figure that will drop to somewhere in the range of $30M once the rookies are signed. Plus, they currently have even more space in 2025 and 2026. The point is, Washington may be in the position to sign the best players going forward, without much regard to salary cap issues.
For his part, Allen has obviously been the leader of Washington’s defense for most of time in Washington, and made two Pro Bowls in the process. He had a down year in 2023 and developed a negative attitude throughout the season. Realistically, though, Allen is a proven, Pro Bowl commodity, so it’s tough to envision a scenario in which Newton outplays him on a one to one basis.
However, it isn’t too much of a step to see the team want to move forward with someone under 30 after 2025. Allen turns 30 in January, 2025. Will there come a time when Newton in his prime is more worthwhile to Washington’s defense than Allen in his early 30s? It’s at least a foreseeable possibility.
The other possibility is that Allen leaves in free agency. At the end of last season, that seemed likely given his negative attitude and expressed desire to not be a part of a rebuild. This could easily change if things go well early in the Dan Quinn era, though. Allen’s attitude may have simply been a temporary reaction to a bad situation.
This argument probably doesn’t apply to Payne given that he turned 27 on May 27, meaning that he is going to be in his prime for several more seasons. Newton isn’t one of these guys who stayed in college for 6 years – he turns 22 on August 31. Payne’s contract expires in 2026, when Payne will turn 29. I can’t see the team giving up on a player, particularly a defensive tackle, because of age when the player is less than 30. If Payne continues on an upward arc, Washington will probably try to re-sign Payne irrespective of Newton’s performance.
Phidarian Mathis is the exact same situation as Newton, and serves as more competition for Newton. Presumably, Newton has more credibility with the front office than Mathis since Newton was drafted by the current regime, but regardless, Mathis needs to follow the exact same path as Newton, and odds are good that only one of them will succeed, at most.
This is certainly a long view of roster construction, particularly in today’s “immediate payout” theory of roster construction. Rarely is a team willing to wait several years for a draft pick to pan out. In the modern NFL, most teams judge draft picks to be a success or a bust by year three of their rookie deal. The fact of the matter is that, absent injury to either Payne or Allen, Newton probably isn’t going to play much in his first two years. Both Payne and Allen make way too much money to not start. This means that – again, barring injury – Washington’s front office will need to make a decision with regard to the future of the defensive line without seeing much of Newton in actual game time. Don’t get me wrong; Newton will play. It’s just that he won’t get starter minutes, and leadership will need to decide based on fairly limited play time.
The predicate to all of this, though, is whether Newton is actually going to develop into a plus-level player. I’m not going to turn this into a full film study, because that’s a separate column. However, as a basic overview, Newton appeared to mostly play as a 3-technique defensive end in a base 3 – 4 at Illinois in 2023. While he doesn’t have tremendous size or length, is viewed by scouts as a player with good agility, quick hands, and instincts, and understand leverage. However, he lacks the desired arm length and the ability to accelerate from the line of scrimmage at the snap.
I didn’t see him playing any 0 or 1 technique as would a nose tackle, or on the edge in a 5-technique. Between that and his physical size, to me, that means he’s limited to being a defensive tackle in the NFL, at least on a regular basis. We don’t know for sure yet whether Washington intends to run a 3 – 4 or 4 – 3 defensive front, but I’m operating on the assumption that the team intends to go with a 4 – 3; otherwise, I would think we’d have gotten some hints by now. A defensive tackle in a 4 – 3 would normally play inside of where a 3 – 4 defensive end would line up, typically as a 2 or 3 technique. I don’t pretend to be an expert in defensive tackle play, but it seems logical that Newton could make that transition.
He’s known as a playmaker and was given a first round grade by many. I suspect the reason that he dropped was mostly because of his injury history. In that respect, Washington got a good deal. The problem, though, is what I described above – there are two solid starters ahead of him, so he won’t get a ton of playing time. Outside of the fact that Washington shouldn’t have drafted him, and should’ve drafted a position in need with such a high draft pick, Newton appears to be a player with talent. Whether he has a path forward in Washington, though, is more up to Jonathan Allen’s future than anything else. We’ll have this conversation again in three years.