Washington: Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Line and a Prediction

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June 7, 2024

by David Earl

Jayden Daniels and The Offensive Line

So much was made of Jayden Daniels’ pressure-to-sack ratio, which could be a concern, but he did show improvement. During the 2022 season at LSU, his rate was a staggering 30.8% but it improved by over 10% points (20.2%) the following season. Many factors play into this, such as Daniels’ tendency to use his legs to keep a play alive, but is this being overblown? As measured by these statistics over the years, the most recent quarterbacks are not a great group, but Daniels accompanied by Joe Burrow at a career pressure-to-sack ratio in college of 22.2%. That said, Daniels is a growing player who became more comfortable within the pocket and navigating through his progressions. His final 3 college seasons, including 1 year with Arizona State and 2 with LSU, have shown steady improvements. As Daniels’ passing attempts increased, his completion percentage followed suit, at 65.4%, 68.6%, and 72.2% respectively. In addition, he only threw 7 total interceptions over the past 2 seasons. Considering he didn’t run a traditional RPO-style offense at LSU against some of the best defenses in the country all year, I find it hard to align any narrative that he is a poor man’s Lamar Jackson. Isolated, as a runner, perhaps, but Daniels is far more along than was Jackson as a passer. Being mechanically sound, with short compact throws and deep ball touch are traits that are rarely seen in a rookie.

As far as the offense Daniels will run in Washington, that remains to be seen, but Kliff Kingsbury does bring an innovative passing scheme complimented by a strong running game. The biggest concern I have is whether Kingsbury’s playcalling and in-game adjustments have improved enough since his time in Arizona. Arizona beat reporter Dan Bickley stated, “For a long time, I’ve been wholly convinced that Kingsbury is not ready for the magnitude of his job.” At that time Kingsbury had to balance being both head coach and offensive coordinator, something at which not many coaches can be successful. Bickley’s concern about Kingsbury essentially boils down to mine, which is whether can he come through in the biggest moments of a close game.

There are a couple of silver linings here: Kingsbury will likely instill a pass-oriented offense, but did not abandon the run in Arizona, averaging 41.33% run plays throughout 4 seasons with the Cardinals. In his first two seasons with Arizona, the offense ranked in the top 10 rushing, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 4.7 yards per carry average respectively. Unfortunately during the subsequent 2 seasons his rushing offense fell below 4.5 yards per carry average, and was ranked 22nd in  his final season. This leads to a second key aspect, which is positive for Washington. The one aspect of last year’s offense for Washington was how effectively they ran the ball. According to Team Rankings, Washington ended up ranked last or near last in most statistical categories except in yards per carry:

  • Ranked 26th in rushing yards per game at 93.6, but did rank 7th in yards per attempt at 4.4. Terrible playcalling played away from the offense’s only strength.
  • Ranked 31st in sacks allowed per game, at 3.8.
  • Ranked 28th in total sack percentage, at 9.27%.
  • Ranked 26th in passer rating at 81.6. While this is mainly a quarterback stat, the pressure rate allowed by this offensive line certainly contributed to a poor rating.

Heading into the 2024 season, the offensive line remains the biggest question as Washington enters the offseason workouts. Beyond Samuel Cosmi and Tyler Biadasz, the unit is highly questionable, first and foremost including Andrew Wylie and his struggles against athletic pass rushers. The biggest concern will be on the left side with left tackle Cornelius Lucas (read in our left tackle position group breakdown) and left guard Nick Allegretti protecting the blindside of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Lucas has been a serviceable swing tackle for so long and is reliable for a few consecutive games in a season, but there is a reason why he’s only started more than 8 games in a season once in his 10 year career. Aligning Lucas on the same side with Allegretti, who started 13 games over a 5 year career, may not be the best situation for Daniels.

To get back to Daniels and what his outlook for this season may entail, I don’t expect him to face the same amount of pressure as consistently as Sam Howell did last season. Kingsbury should run a more pass-diverse offense but he will certainly lean on the running game, unlike Eric Bieniemy‘s heavy passing scheme a year ago. The 2020 Arizona Cardinals season could be a preview of the year Daniels could have under Kingsbury. Their offensive line was much better than is Washington’s, and the skill position players favored the Cardinals, who were led by receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

Pass Protection:

  • Cardinals ranked 10th in sack percentage at 4.80% and 11th on sacks allowed per game at 1.8, which is not even remotely as bad as that of Washington. Plus, Murray’s mobility greatly aided in the Cardinals’ overall pass protection.
  • The addition of Biadasz will certainly be an improvement but Lucas is a downgrade from Charles Leno Jr. Wylie has much to improve on, and Allegretti’s inexperience is an unknown. As a result, the improvement will most likely be marginal as compared to last season; however, a more balanced attack and Daniels’s mobility should give this unit much-needed assistance.
  • Prediction: Sack percentage closer to 7.00%, with 30+ sacks.

Passing/Running Game:

  • During the 2020 season, Kyler Murray completed 375 from 558 attempts, for a  67.2% completion percentage, with 26 touchdowns and 12 interception. Murray rushed for 819 yards in 133 attempts for an average of 6.2 yards per attempt, and 11 touchdowns.
  • While Daniels is arguably a better quarterback, it will be difficult to have much better numbers than Murray produced in that season. Taking into account Daniels’ history of making smart decisions, I can see him throwing fewer interceptions than Murray’s 12 in 2020.  If that happens, then his touchdowns and passer rating should be slightly better as a result.
  • Prediction: Completion percentage of 67% with 500+ attempts, 31 passing touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Kingsbury may be safer on designed runs, thus I could see 80+ rushing attempts for 500+ yards and 6 touchdowns.

Final Thoughts

Washington’s offense is still a ways away from being a good unit, and in my opinion, Kliff Kingsbury still needs to prove he can call a complete game. Washington has a dynamic quarterback in Jayden Daniels, who is more than just a runner, but they will need to protect him as he goes through growing pains adapting to the NFL. There absolutely cannot be a repeat of last season, in which the young quarterback was left exposed to most of the top pass rush units in the NFL, which will certainly overpower this offensive line more times than not. Granted, the unbalanced playcalling by Bieniemy, along with Sam Howell’s tendency to hold the ball too long at times surely created many of those issues. Therefore, the key to protecting Daniels must be using the run to set the pass up – which I realize is something of a cliche – which may require the use of a 12-personnel set (which uses 2 tight ends) at times for maximum protection.